China’s demand growth continues to be weak down the main value chains. Auto sales are the most obvious example. As the chart shows, they have recovered from the very slow period over the Lunar New Year holiday, but are still only up 2% (red diamond) versus 2011 levels (green line). Even this growth has only […]
Chemicals and the Economy
US, China, EU auto sales up just 1% in Q1
Autos are the largest single market for chemical and polymer sales. And the USA, China and EU are the 3 largest markets, accounting for 2/3rds of global sales last year. Disappointingly, as the above chart shows, their sales were up just 1% overall in Q1 versus 2011 at 10.6m. Even this gain was only due […]
US auto buyers head for fuel efficiency
Every now and then, genuinely good news comes along in terms of consumer demand. Today is one of those days. As the chart above shows, US auto sales in March (red square) were the highest monthly total since March 2007. They also followed relatively strong sales figures for February, which adds to the good news. […]
EU auto sales fall 10% in February
EU auto sales are back at early 2009 levels. This was the height of the slump that followed the start of the financial crisis. But today, unlike then, it seems unlikely that politicians can afford another €2500 ($3.25k) ‘cash for clunkers’ programme. As the chart shows, 2012 sales (red square) fell 10% in February versus […]
China’s auto sales fall 5%
If something seems to be too good to be true, then it generally is. That appears to be the learning from China’s auto market in recent months. February sales jumped, as the Lunar New Year holiday took place in January this year. But total sales in January/February were down 5% versus 2011 at 2.37m versus […]
US oil markets at a turning point
An excellent new report from Citi’s commodities team suggests the US supply/demand balance for crude oil is undergoing fundamental change. Importantly, they also argue that the concept of ‘peak oil is being buried’, and add: “The belief that global oil production has peaked, or is on the cusp of doing so, has underpinned much of […]
Auto sales have slow start in January
January was not a great month for auto sales in the 3 major markets of the USA, EU and China. These amount to over 50% of global auto sales, and are a key indicator of underlying consumer demand. As the chart shows, sales were just 3m (red square), down from 3.2m (green line) in 2011: […]
Global auto sales growth stalls as BabyBoomers age
Cars are now the largest single market for chemical sales, as housing markets have slowed globally. Each new US car is worth $3297, for example, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC), making the US market worth $42bn in 2011. 2011 auto sales were ~59m, up 4% from 2010. The West (EU, USA, Japan) still […]
US auto sales rise, as older cars have to be replaced
December’s US auto sales provide a classic example of Kahneman’s illusion, discussed on Saturday. Initially they appear encouraging to our System 1 minds. As the chart shows (red line), they were the 2nd highest of the year, and one of the few months to top 1.1m sales since the start of the Great Recession. But […]
Auto sales growth stalls in China, Europe and USA
November (red line) was a mixed month for auto sales, as the above chart shows. It updates the state of the world’s 3 largest markets: • China remained the largest market with sales of 1.3m. Its Year To Date (YTD) sales are up 6% at 12.5m • Europe is the 2nd largest market with sales […]
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