Milton Friedman received a Nobel Prize for economics in 1976, partly on the basis of his analysis that ‘inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon’. It sounds an appealing insight, but of course it is wrong. The reason is that it confuses cause and effect. The above chart presents a different view, highlighting the […]
Chemicals and the Economy
The blog in Barron’s
Barrons, the leading US investment magazine, recently published a major cover story analysing the potential impact of the Millennial generation on the US economy. These are the young people now aged between 18 to 37 years, who are starting to enter their Wealth Creator years. Barron’s noted they currently account for $1.3tn of consumer spending, […]
Aging population means low US GDP and interest rates
Most commentators seemed surprised by last week’s news of weak US Q4 GDP growth. To help avoid similar shocks in future, the blog is pleased today to present its ‘cut out and keep guide’ to future levels of US GDP and interest rates. The guide has been successfully back-tested to 1962, when records begin for […]
“You can’t turn back the demographic tide”
The financial magazine MoneyWeek have produced a new video in their Investment Tutorial series, looking at the impact of today’s ‘demographic cliff’ on the economy. Editor-in-Chief Merryn Somerset Webb suggests this is “One of the key bits of information that you need, to understand what’s going on in the West today” and adds: “It doesn’t […]
Demographic slowdown hits company results
Are you a typical employee in the chemical industry (aged in your 30s or 40s)? Have you noticed that you spend rather more money than your parents? Then you may have spotted the reason for the more difficult economic conditions that your company is now encountering. There is little doubt about the seriousness of the […]
Global operating rates weaken
The chemical industry is a well-known leading indicator for the global economy. This is because our products are used in so many applications around the world. The above chart of global capacity utilisation, from the American Chemistry Council, paints a subdued picture. In May, capacity utilisation was actually lower than in May last year, at […]
Global economy goes Back to the Future
Between 1854 and 1982, the US economy was in recession for 35% of the time, according to Deutsche Bank research. But between November 1982 and December 2007, as the chart shows, it was only in recession for 5% of the time, just 16 months in 25 years. Something very unusual clearly happened during this period. […]
New White Paper now available
We face more uncertainty today than I have ever seen over the past 30 years. Will last year’s strong performance in terms of profit continue? Or will higher oil prices ruin the party? Might China’s demand slow, as the government there worries about rising inflation? How will European demand be impacted as governments switch from […]
Baby-Boomers cut spending, start saving
Consumer spending is 70% of US GDP. And because US GDP is so large, this means the US consumer is 17% of global GDP. This is the same as the combined GDP of China and Japan, who rank 2 and 3 after the USA. So a change in US consumer spending matters. And it particularly […]
Volatility rules
The end of a major trend is usually marked by a significant increase in volatility. This seems to be what is happening to the equity bull market that began back in 1982. It has weathered a number of storms over the years, as traders kept faith with the underlying trend. But this week’s Barrons, the […]
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