Tag Archives | Bank of England

London house prices slip as supply/demand balances change

London house prices are “falling at the fastest rate in almost a decade” according to major property lender, Nationwide.  And almost 40% of new-build sales were to bulk buyers at discounts of up to 30%, according of researchers, Molior.  As the CEO of builders Crest Nicholson told the Financial Times:  “We did this sale because we […]

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London house prices risk perfect storm as interest rates rise

2000 should have been the natural end of the BabyBoomer-led economic SuperCycle. The oldest Boomer (born in 1946) was about to leave the Wealth Creator 25 – 54 age group that drives consumer spending and hence economic growth.  And since 1970, Boomer women’s fertility rates had been below replacement level (2.1 babies/woman).  So relatively fewer young people were […]

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Interest rates and London house prices begin return to reality

Global interest rates have fallen dramatically over the past 25 years, as the chart shows for government 10-year bonds:   UK rates peaked at 9% in 1995 and are now down at 1%: US rates peaked at 8% and are now at 2%   German rates peaked at 8% and are now down to 0%: […]

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Debt, demographics set to destroy Trump’s GDP growth dream

Unsurprisingly, Friday’s US GDP report showed Q1 growth was just 0.7%, as the New York Times reported: “The U.S. economy turned in the weakest performance in three years in the January-March quarter as consumers sharply slowed their spending. The result fell far short of President Donald Trump’s ambitious growth targets and underscores the challenges of […]

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US GDP growth stalls with participation rates near all-time low

US GDP growth is slowing, again, as the chart of the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “GDP Now” forecast shows:    Forecast Q1 growth has slipped to just 0.6% from an initial 3.4% at the end of January    Consensus economic forecasts are still much higher, but even they have fallen to 1.7% from 2.2% […]

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UK savings Apr17

UK consumers face difficult times as Brexit unwinds the housing bubble, and financial services de-cluster out of London

Brexit negotiations are likely to prove a very uncomfortable ride for UK consumers as Russell Napier of Eric, the online research platform, warned last week: □  “Public sector debt remains at near-historic highs (in peace time!) and for the first time this public sector debt comes with a private sector bubble □  Credit card debt […]

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London housing market hit by Brexit, China’s capital controls

London’s housing market was always going to have a difficult 2017. As I noted 2 years ago, developers were planning 54,000 new luxury homes at prices of £1m+ ($1.25m) in central London, which would mainly start to flood onto the market this year. They weren’t bothered by the fact that only 3900 homes were sold […]

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Monetary policy reaches sell-by date for managing the economy

Monetary policy used to be the main focus for running the economy.  If demand and inflation rose too quickly, then interest rates would be raised to cool things down.  When demand and inflation slowed, interest rates would be reduced to encourage “pent-up demand” to return. After the start of the Financial Crisis, central banks promised […]

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“Demographics in mainstream economics has been under-emphasized for too long” – Andy Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England

“Will economists start to consider demographics when making their forecasts and developing government policies?” This was the question on my mind at a recent discussion on the topic of “An economy that works for everyone” at the UK’s Institute for Government.  The speaker was the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, and the Institute’s […]

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Recession the base case scenario for 2017

It is hard to be optimistic about the outlook for 2017. The good news is that policymakers are finally giving up on the idea that stimulus can somehow return us to the growth levels seen when the Baby Boomers were young.  As the Bank of England note in a new Report:   “Economic theory suggests that a […]

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