Something very important seems to be happening in China’s polyester’s markets. The blog was brought up on these markets in its early days with ICI, when it was part of the team that launched PTA into Asian markets for the first time in the mid-1980s. It has always seen them as a source of steady growth, with […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s auto sales rise as bank lending booms
Autos are now the largest single manufacturing industry in the world. Not only do they directly and indirectly employ vast numbers of people, but they are also increasingly key to consumer spending. Thus it is no surprise that governments have tried to increase auto sales since the Crisis began in 2008. China is the prime example of […]
Scenario planning critical in forecasting 2014 China product growth
Anyone not closely studying trade data is likely to make some very expensive mistakes over the next few years. The reason is that economics is no longer the sole driver for purchase decisions. Instead, political and social issues can be of greater importance. The chart above of China’s polyethylene demand highlights this complexity, using Global […]
Apple’s iPhone launch marks retreat from China’s mass-market
Apple will report great sales this weekend from its iPhone launch in China. But these cannot disguise its major problem in selling its high-priced iPhones there. Its difficulties highlight the dangers for those who believe that China has now become a ‘middle-class’ country with most of the population having incomes close to Western levels. Back in 2010, the analysts […]
Oil market hype fails to take prices out of their triangle
Pity for a moment those poor souls whose income depends on finding ever-more creative ways of justifying today’s record levels of oil prices. One by one, all their favourite stories have disappeared. Even the traditional summer warnings of record hurricane disruption have so far failed to deliver. How different it is from the start of the crisis, when the […]
China lending remains out of control ahead of November’s plenum
The blog’s views on the unsustainability of China’s epic economic growth since 2009 have now become truly mainstream. Everyone now agrees, including the new leadership, that it was created by a credit bubble. State-owned China Daily has even now warned that a commercial property bubble potentially now exists alongside the residential bubble and the infrastructure ‘white elephants’, adding: “Once […]
Demand growth stalls as stimulus effects prove temporary
As executives return to their desks this week, they face some difficult judgement calls. As the chart shows, markets have been worryingly quiet over the summer. Most products in the IeC benchmark portfolio are unchanged. Only Brent crude oil and naphtha have moved higher – due to Syria concerns – whilst benzene has moved lower. But even these are relatively minor movements. This […]
A flap of a butterfly’s wings to freeze the UK economy
The world’s media are increasingly aware that economic growth is being impacted by major demographic change. Thus the leading UK weekly magazine, the New Statesman, has published this article by the blog last week. It looks at the challenges facing the UK in the next few months. These are, of course, the same challenges that face all the major economies. “The [UK […]
China’s empty cities create global lending risk
More details continue to surface of the wasteful spending that underpinned much of China’s GDP growth in recent years. The empty city of Ordos (first highlighted 3 years ago in the blog) is just one example. House prices there have recently fallen 50%, and the shadow banking system (critical for privately-owned companies) is reportedly in […]
China revises down H1 auto sales by 9%
China’s state media have published major revisions to reported auto sales data for H1, and for the equivalent period in 2012. As far as the blog knows, these have not been noticed elsewhere, so it seems worth providing more detail on the changes that have been made. Auto sales are a vitally important market, and these changes are quite significant, […]
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