Something very strange happened in China’s auto market during Q1. As the chart shows, sales (red square) rocketed 20% in January/February versus 2012 (green line), before cooling to 15% growth in March. Neither government nor the auto industry expects this pace to continue: • Government forecasts are for 8% overall growth this year • Industry […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s need to clean up pollution will slow economic growth
Pollution is, unfortunately, one of the downsides of industrial development. Luckily for us in the West, it is mostly a distant memory. But as the BBC picture on the left reminds us, Britain was paralysed by ‘smog’ (a lethal mixture of fumes and fog) only 50 years ago in December 1962. Now it is Beijing’s […]
China’s new leadership prepare for property price crackdown
China’s new premier, Li Keqiang, was the first senior official to confirm that the country’s GDP figures were “for guidance only”, being “man-made and therefore unreliable“. As he told the US ambassador in 2007, he instead used electricity consumption and bank lending (plus rail cargo) as his key indicators. It therefore seems appropriate to mark […]
Xi Jinping needs to repeat his father’s economic success
Xi Jinping was formally confirmed as China’s new president this week. But we know remarkably little about him, apart from a rather dry list of his official positions as he climbed the career ladder. This is understandable, given the chaos that resulted from Mao’s personality cult and the Cultural Revolution. However, we do know something […]
China’s PVC imports tumble as its housing market slows
Jiang Zemin never spent too much time worrying about Western financial markets or domestic criticism, either before or after he became China’s president between 1993-2003. Instead, he focused on 3 core areas, which became known as the Three Represents: “The Party must always represent the requirements of the development of China’s advanced productive forces, the […]
China’s new leadership starts to change economic direction
Today sees the start of China’s annual National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing, when the new leadership of president Xi and premier Li will formally take office. Judging by their activity since November, when the appointments were confirmed, we may well see major changes in economic policy being announced. The key is the move away […]
IMF warns on potential for China decline
The blog is awarding itself and co-author John Richardson a pat on the back today, for its pioneering insight into the major changes underway in China’s economy due to the ‘one child policy’. As the chart above shows, China’s economy after 25 years of industrialisation is now in a labour-intensive stage – which will be […]
Downside risks mount for China’s economy
What is the right conclusion to draw from the above graph? Much rests on the answer, as China’s polyethylene (PE) demand is a good indicator for the overall state of its consumer demand: • Was the dramatic leap in demand growth (blue column) in 2009 just a one-off? • Or are we likely to see […]
China’s new leadership have major economic task ahead
The approach of Lunar New Year is a good moment to look back over the economic inheritance being left by president Hu and premier Wen as they handover to Xi and Li next month in China. Their strategy was to exploit the opportunity provided by China having finally joined the World Trade Organisation in December […]
China’s growth slows now Party Congress has ended
China, like the USA, had a leadership transition in November. And, of course, this led to led to some effective ‘massaging’ of the economy in the preceding months. As the blog noted in November, it was no coincidence that bank lending jumped $1.1tn between May-October, to ensure local communist party chiefs got the projects they […]
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