The blog’s series on the emerging ‘VUCA world’ today looks at how companies have to manage increased levels of Uncertainty. This can be seen in key areas of demand, such as housing. The above chart shows how US housing starts (blue line) have fallen from 2.1m in 2005 to just 0.6m last year. Housing permits […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Why plastics signal problems ahead for the US shale gas bonanza
The blog’s latest post for the new Financial Times FT Data blog has just been published, and is reprinted below. Please click here for the FT site. Shale gas developments in the US have sparked a wave of euphoria about the opportunity for a renaissance of its domestic manufacturing base. Petrochemicals should be one of […]
China’s demand growth remains weak
China’s demand growth continues to be weak down the main value chains. Auto sales are the most obvious example. As the chart shows, they have recovered from the very slow period over the Lunar New Year holiday, but are still only up 2% (red diamond) versus 2011 levels (green line). Even this growth has only […]
A China ‘hard landing’ gets closer
China’s leadership remain preoccupied with the transition to a new politburo in October, and the continuing fallout from the Bo Xilai affair. Equally, April’s 7% rise in food price inflation remains a major issue for a country where 96% of the population earn less than $20/day. Data for April bank lending and electricity consumption highlights […]
Boom/Gloom Index stalls as austerity worries rise
EU policymakers like to pretend that the Eurozone debt crisis was resolved by the adoption of last March’s new Treaty. An even more disturbing thought is that they might even believe their own propaganda. Who knows? But on the ground, it is crystal clear that the problems continue to multiply. Latest data from the Bank […]
China’s Q1 PE demand down 4% versus 2010
The story of the past 5 years has been how global economic growth moved from a dependency on the West’s housing boom to a dependency on China’s housing boom. Today’s only problem is that history suggests such booms are unlikely to have a happy ending. But who hasn’t indulged in a little wishful thinking, from […]
EU faces US competition in PVC export markets
The blog continues this week’s special series on chloralkali and PVC markets by looking at EU developments on PVC. Historically the EU has had strong export positions into markets such as Turkey and Russia, which lack major local production. More recently, as in the USA, strong export demand for caustic soda and weak domestic demand […]
Shale gas supports US PVC exports
Yesterday the blog discussed caustic soda, and the recent importance of China’s metal demand. Today it focuses on chlorine and PVC. PVC is the largest end-use for chlorine. It is also critical for chloralkali producers when caustic demand is strong, as recently. Chlorine itself cannot be safely stored in large volumes, and so instead they […]
China’s downturn slows caustic soda markets
As promised yesterday, the blog is running a special series of posts this week focused on chloralkali and PVC markets. Caustic soda is a key indicator for the global economy. This is because it is used in a wide variety of basic industries, including mining, pulp and paper, detergents and water treatment. The USA is […]
US, China, EU auto sales up just 1% in Q1
Autos are the largest single market for chemical and polymer sales. And the USA, China and EU are the 3 largest markets, accounting for 2/3rds of global sales last year. Disappointingly, as the above chart shows, their sales were up just 1% overall in Q1 versus 2011 at 10.6m. Even this gain was only due […]
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