An amazing development is taking place in the world today. For the first time in human history, more people are joining the 55+ age group than the 25 – 54 age group: 600m people will be joining the New Old 55+ cohort between now and 2030, taking their numbers to 1.8bn This is twice the […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Pension funds suffer as retirement ages have fallen whilst life expectancy has risen
10k Americans have been retiring every day since 2011, and 18k Europeans, as the BabyBoomer generation reaches the age of 65. But pension schemes have not adapted to the fact that average life expectancy is now 20 years at age 65. This is causing major problems for the economy as pensioners leave the workforce […]
US interest rate dilemma highlights fragile global economy
Should it really matter that the US Federal Reserve might raise US interest rates by 0.25% tomorrow? Surely the IMF/World Bank should not need to argue that such a small increase could really be critical for the world economy? The fact that such a debate has been taking place at all, highlights the damage done by stimulus […]
Stock markets weaken as ‘Ring of Fire’ fault-lines open
“Central banks have created a debt-fuelled ‘Ring of Fire’, and we will no doubt have felt many tremors (large and small) as a result, by the time my next 6-monthly update appears in September“. That was my forecast for world stock markets back in March, and I imagine few would argue with it today, as we review developments […]
45-year baby drought stalls Western economic growth
200 years ago, most blog readers would have been dead at their current age. Life expectancy in the West was just 34 years in 1820, and averaged only 24 years everywhere else. Today, as the chart shows, Western life expectancy has risen to 79 years (red area). In the the emerging economies, it has nearly […]
Unilever says Q2 market growth slows in emerging countries, developed countries weak
The global economy really isn’t getting any better. That’s the key conclusion from the blog’s quarterly survey of company results for Q2. Of course, some companies are doing well – either because of shale gas economics, or their own market positioning. But consumer giant Unilever summarised the general picture very well: “Market growth continued to slow in emerging […]
Dow’s CEO says “pre-2008 economy was a bubble”
Now its official. Andrew Liveris, Dow CEO, told CNBC last week that the “pre-2008 economy was a bubble“. And exactly mirroring the analysis of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal, he went on to add that “for a couple of years after 2008, we had a head-fake that the growth might have returned, but it […]
America’s New Old 55 plus are now 38% of consumer spending
Maybe the concept that spending is related to age and income is just too simple for policy makers to understand? Could that be the reason why they insist on continuing to try to stimulate demand, despite the fact that Western and many other populations are now ageing fast? That was the blog’s thought on studying newly […]
Markets remain “volatile and challenging” says BASF chairman
Nothing has really changed over the past year. That seems to be the key conclusion from the blog’s quarterly summary of company results for Q1. A year ago, BASF noted that “achieving our earnings target is significantly more challenging today than we had expected”. This month, chairman Kurt Bock “warned the markets will remain volatile and […]
Pension promises unaffordable due to demographic change
As promised yesterday, the blog looks today at the impact of today’s rapidly ageing populations. The key point is that global life expectancy been rising for over 40 years, whilst fertility rates have been falling. A paradigm shift is thus inevitable, where future demand will be very different: 1970 Onwards. Growth accelerated, as the population became concentrated in the […]
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