Europe’s polyethylene (PE) trade presents a fascinating patchwork, based on its geographic and historical trading position, overlaid with its multi-ownership structure. This is highlighted in the above chart (based based on trade data for the January-August period from Global Trade Information Services, the leading global supplier). It shows net trade (exports less imports) for the […]
Chemicals and the Economy
US, China, EU auto sales stall
Auto sales in the world’s 3 main markets (China, USA, EU), saw much slower growth in the past 3 months. The chart above shows how they have moved in 2011 (red square) versus previous years. It is clear that the stimulus-led boom seen since 2009 has come to an end: • Overall, sales in the […]
China’s PE market down 2.5% in H1
China’s surging demand led the chemical world out of recession and into boom territory. Its 53% increase in polyethylene (PE) demand between 2008 – 2010 (up 6.2 MT), was typical of the support it provided. But H1 2011 has not maintained this momentum, as the chart shows. Its PE demand was actually down 2.5% versus […]
Auto sales face weaker H2
This week’s special blog series has focused on auto markets, a critical source of chemical demand. Today, it concludes by summarising developments in China, USA, EU, which account for ~55% of global sales. They have moved in different directions since the Great Recession began: • China’s volumes soared in 2009-10 • The USA has fallen […]
EU auto sales suffer “continued downward trend”
ICIS’ Mark Victory wrote a interesting article this week, in which he tried to relate differing views of the economic outlook to auto demand, the area in which he specialises. The underlying issue, of course, is the complexity of the value chain, where supplies are often ordered months in advance, whilst most data will only […]
EU unemployment remains at 10%
EU governments have spent enormous sums of money to support the economy over the past year. Yet in terms of a key indicator such as unemployment, the situation has got worse rather than better. This is bound to restrain consumer spending, a key factor for domestic EU chemical demand. Eurozone unemployment hit 10% in February, […]
EU auto sales fall further 9% in May
The blog has been out and about in recent days, visiting some of the major European chemical companies. Most continue to see strong order books. In normal circumstances, this would lead to considerable confidence about the outlook for the rest of the year. However, there are increasing fears, as Nigel Davis has noted in ICIS […]
EU auto sales rise 9% in Q1
The impact of government scrappage schemes continues to dominate European auto sales. As the chart shows, sales were up 9.2% in Q1, and March was up 10.8%, versus 2009. On a national basis, Germany continued its decline after the end of its scheme, with sales down 26.6% in March. But this was offset by UK […]
Eurozone unemployment hits 10%
The rate of unemployment is an important leading indicator for chemical industry demand. It measures the number of people who currently don’t have much spare cash to spend on discretionary purchases. And when the jobless rate is rising, it also impacts the spending patterns of those still in work, as they often choose to save […]
German auto sales fall 30%
European auto sales continue to depend on the influence of government stimulus programmes. The main feature of February’s results was the sharp decline in Germany’s sales. They were down 30% versus February 2009. This supports the fears of those who saw stimulus programmes as simply bringing forward new sales, not creating new demand. Overall, European […]
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