Western central bankers are convinced reflation and economic growth are finally underway as a result of their $14tn stimulus programmes. But the best leading indicator for the global economy – capacity utilisation (CU%) in the global chemical industry – is saying they are wrong. The CU% has an 88% correlation with actual GDP growth, far […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Force majeures hit new record high as safety loses out to profits
Just when you think something really can’t get any worse, it does. Sadly, that’s the story on chemical industry force majeures since my last half-year review. As I noted then: “There is no such thing as an accident. The chemical industry, like others, has known this for over 30 years, since the adoption of Quality […]
Force majeures at all-time highs even before downturn begins
There is no such thing as an accident. The chemical industry, like others, has known this for over 30 years, since the adoption of Quality Management techniques. Yet it seems that over the past 18 months either this important fact has been forgotten or, more likely, I fear, has simply been ignored. The evidence for […]
Force majeures at record level, despite high profits
All accidents are preventable. This simple fact, which used to be top-of-mind for every chemical industry manager, seems to have been increasingly either forgotten or ignored in recent years. The evidence is in the chart above: showing industry force majeures since 2008 (as reported on ICIS news): They were at a record level in 2015, […]
H1 sees worst-ever number of chemical plant force majeures
The first half of 2015 was the worst half-year for force majeures in the chemical industry since reliable data became available via ICIS news in 2005. As the chart shows, there were 479 reports of outages, more than double H1 2014 and well above the previous peak of 375 in H1 2011. This is absolutely […]
2013 a bad year for force majeures
2013 wasn’t a good year for plant reliability. The blog’s 6-monthly survey of force majeure reports in ICIS news shows: There were 386 reports of force majeures in 2013 This was very similar to the 391 level seen in 2010 It also reverses the decline seen in 2012 after the record 495 reports in 2011 This is a worrying […]
Force majeures continue to increase
Companies have clearly been cutting capital budgets, in response to the slowing global economy. That’s the only conclusion to be drawn from the blog’s 6-monthly review of force majeures, as reported by ICIS news. They have been climbing steadily for months, and June saw them at twice the June 2012 level, as the chart shows. […]
January shows worrying rise in force majeures
As the major regional economies continue to slow, more companies are starting to reduce capital budgets. Maintenance spending is always an easy target for a cutback. The cost of poor performance may not be seen for some time, whilst the bottom line sees an immediate benefit. Thus it is worth keeping a careful eye on […]
Force majeures decline as operating rates slow
The good news is that the blog’s 6 monthly review of force majeures shows considerable improvement from H1 2011’s performance. As the chart indicates, the number of ICIS news reports of force majeures halved from 375 in 2011 to 179. Some of the decline was, of course, expected as there has thankfully been no repeat […]
H2 force majeure reports show little improvement
The blog’s 6 monthly review of force majeures (FM) reveals worryingly little improvement in performance. As the chart shows, H2 was slightly better than H2 2010. But realism suggests it was flattered by Q4’s low operating rates, which probably reduced the actual need for FMs. The chart is based on the number of FM mentions […]
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