Imagine living in the capital city of a major country, and suffering the level of pollution shown in the above photo on a regular basis. We used the photo in chapter 6 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal when we highlighted how pollution was inevitably going to move up the political agenda in China. Controversial at the […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s changed priorities signal end to stimulus
China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ project and the need to reduce pollution have replaced “growth at any price” as key government priorities, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Companies and investors are assuming it is “business as usual” in China ahead of the important 19th […]
Seven global implications of China’s new policies
Everyone remembers the old joke, “Why did the elephant wear dark glasses?”, and the answer, “So that she wouldn’t be recognised”. A new version popped into the blog’s mind this week, when finishing its new Research Note on the impact of China’s new policies on the global economy: “Why did nobody notice that China was the ‘elephant […]
The Deng, Jiang model for China’s economic growth under Xi
Major change is already underway in China, with potentially enormous implications for all of us. Corruption is being stamped out via a policy of ‘shock and awe’ Similarly, wasteful lending is under attack in both the official and the so-called ‘shadow banking’ sectors Thirdly, pollution is being tackled by literally ‘sending in the bulldozers‘ to […]
From Jiang to Hu and the lost decade
President Jiang Zemin inherited a difficult economic and political situation when taking power in 1993, as did Deng in 1977 and current president Xi last year. Jiang had to set in motion China’s second economic cycle of the post-Mao era, or risk seeing the country fall back into poverty and the political turmoil of another Cultural Revolution. Similarly today, […]
Deng’s economic policy in China’s post-Mao period
China’s economic policy has gone through 2 complete cycles since Chairman Mao’s death is 1976. Under new president Xi, it now seems to be about to start a 3rd cycle. If this cycle follows the pattern of the previous cycles, it will have very major implications for anyone doing business with China, either directly or […]
China auto sales could drop if lending squeeze continues
Imagine for a moment that you had become president or premier of China following the leadership transition in March. You know that the country’s economic model has to change. But you also know that you have to carefully develop your powerbase, whilst also putting in place new policies. Probably you would take things cautiously at […]
China’s Q1 PVC imports drop 98% as housing bubble targeted
Q1 data from Global Trade Information Services provides further evidence of the slowdown underway in China. As the chart shows, the dramatic drop in net PVC imports suggests the new leadership are determined to burst the house price bubble they inherited: • Imports (red column) were down a startling 98% versus Q1 2011 (blue) • […]
China’s new leadership heads in a new direction
As promised, the blog today looks at the impact of former President Jiang Zemin’s return to active politics during the recent leadership transition. Its monitoring of expert commentary inside and outside China suggests he has achieved 4 major changes: • Corruption. Countries cannot progress if corruption dominates daily life. Thus it seems critically important that […]
Jiang returns to help China avoid the ‘middle income trap’
It is not easy to discover what is really happening in China’s government. There were no opinion polls before the new leaders were appointed, and certainly no public policy debates. But the blog’s careful reading of Chinese and foreign media does suggest that some important changes may be underway. The evidence for this rather bold […]
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