Just as forecast in March, world cotton prices have crashed. Prices peaked at 97.35c/lb on 24 March, just 3 days after the post was published. Since then, they have fallen by a third to 65c/lb. They have now fallen for 11 straight weeks – the longest slump in 55 years, according to Bloomberg. There is no need to repeat […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s polyester market flashes red warning signals
China’s polyester market seems to be trying to tell us something quite important about the real state of China’s economy, as the chart above shows for the main raw material, PTA (terephthalic acid): It focuses on the margin between PTA prices and naphtha feedstock (Singapore basis) Normally this is a premium between $200/t – $300/t as shows […]
Cotton prices slip as US supply rises and China’s imports fall
It seems that cotton prices are about to return to normal levels again. The blog’s detailed discussion of the issues last September highlighted how current Chinese government policies seemed doomed to fail, at enormous cost to the wider world. It now looks as though China’s new leadership agrees with this conclusion. Since late 2008, the previous leadership’s […]
China’s polyester market warns of demand weakness ahead
Something very important seems to be happening in China’s polyester’s markets. The blog was brought up on these markets in its early days with ICI, when it was part of the team that launched PTA into Asian markets for the first time in the mid-1980s. It has always seen them as a source of steady growth, with […]
Shell, Bayer, Tullow to speak at World Aromatics conference
Next month’s World Aromatics and Derivatives Conference in Brussels has a range of top-name speakers discussing key issues for the markets. Co-organised as always with ICIS, it features: Shell: Global strategy manager Herbert Le Lorrain will present Shell’s new scenarios for the future, ‘Mountains and Oceans’ Bayer MaterialScience: New procurement head Christian Buhse will provide his first impressions […]
Cotton reserves equal 3 pairs of jeans for every person in the world
Cotton will be one of the main case studies used by future historians to highlight the failure of post-Crisis policies from 2008 onwards. It highlights all the key issues: Their tidal wave of liquidity took cotton prices, as the chart shows, to all-time record levels. They soared to a record monthly level of 230c/lb in March 2011, nearly double […]
Polyester markets head for crisis as cotton prices crash
Cotton prices, as the chart shows, have returned to the 50c-70c/lb range that has dominated since 1982. This proves, once again, that ‘reversion to the mean’ is usually the best investment strategy. Sadly, however, it is the people who did not believe the hype around higher prices who will have to pick up the pieces, […]
Cotton prices slip as India reverses export ban
Cotton prices are falling again, since Monday’s reversal by the Indian government of its proposed ban on cotton exports. India is the world’s 2nd largest cotton exporter, after the USA, with 20% of the market: • On 5 March, its Textiles Ministry banned all exports • Domestic users had applied pressure to divert supplies to […]
Home appliance and furnishings demand declines, as home ownership rates fall
Western banks now demand higher deposits when lending to first time buyers. The Bank of England expects this to increase the average age at which first-time buyers buy a home, and reduce home ownership. This will hit demand for home furnishings and appliances, unless companies change their approach to the market. The Bank’s conclusions apply […]
Global stock markets slide as demand disappoints
It is now 5 weeks since the IeC Downturn Alert was launched. The chart above therefore updates the blog’s regular review of financial markets, showing how these have moved over the same period. Most are down around 4%-5%. Russia is the worst performer (down 8%) and Brazil the best (down 3%). But government bond prices […]
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