Tag Archives | protectionism

Recession the base case scenario for 2017

It is hard to be optimistic about the outlook for 2017. The good news is that policymakers are finally giving up on the idea that stimulus can somehow return us to the growth levels seen when the Baby Boomers were young.  As the Bank of England note in a new Report:   “Economic theory suggests that a […]

Continue Reading

Consensus wisdom defies reality around the world

“Consensus wisdom” is a handy way of keeping up with events.  Nobody likes to be the person who says “I don’t know” when the boss asks a question about something important.  But unfortunately, “consensus wisdom” is often wrong, as Ipsos MORI confirm in their new ‘Perils of Perception‘ survey,  As the authors note: “It highlights how […]

Continue Reading

2016’s Word of the Year: “Impossible”

Nobody likes change, particularly on the scale that is taking place all around us today.  Understandably, we prefer to live in a state of Denial.  This is why “Impossible” is my Word of the Year for 2016. The main feature of the word is that it is a statement, and a very clear statement.  People […]

Continue Reading

2017 Global Outlook – ACS webinar on Thursday

This year has seen a paradigm shift in how major governments view trade.  We may well be seeing an end to globalisation:   In Europe, the United Kingdom voted to leave the E.U., and Italy may well have a referendum on leaving the euro   In the U.S., President-Elect Donald Trump’s 100-day Action Plan will see […]

Continue Reading

Industry needs new strategy to spread benefits of globalisation

The Brexit vote, and Donald Trump’s election, confirm that we are in a New Normal world.  In the interview below with Will Beacham, Deputy editor of ICIS Chemical Business, I highlight some ideas about how industry needs to adapt. BARCELONA (ICIS)–The global chemical sector needs to stimulate demand for innovative products and services in mature […]

Continue Reading

If “Brexit means Brexit”, what does Brexit mean?

The summer is over, and the UK government now has the job of deciding its objectives for the Brexit negotiations. These, like all major negotiations, will no doubt be long and difficult.  They will also inevitably create major uncertainty for companies, investors and individuals as they progress. I have personally led major negotiations in a […]

Continue Reading

The China middle class myth moves us closer to protectionism

Believing conventional wisdom can destroy your profits.  One example is playing out in the oil market before our eyes. Another example is the myth that China was about to become middle class.  Yet income levels always made this impossible: More than 9 out of 10 Chinese earn less than $20/day By comparison, the basic state pension in the UK is 25% higher, at over […]

Continue Reading
Deflation Jul13

Protectionism edges closer as US holds back on Fast Track Authority

The mainstream media rather ignored a key event last week, namely that the Democrat leader of the US Senate signalled he would not try to pass Fast Track Authority to allow the President to conclude new trade deals with the EU and Pacific countries.   Nobody seems to want to face the unpalatable truth, that this […]

Continue Reading
Deflation Jul13

“Deflation fears spark shock ECB rate cut”

The mention of deflation in the above front page headline of Friday’s Financial Times will not have surprised blog readers.  But it appears that not enough people in the European Central Bank read the blog, as the FT went on to report the ECB’s sense of “shock” at the thought that deflation could now be just around the corner. This highlights the enormous […]

Continue Reading
Deflation.png

Japan aims for major devaluation

Some trends play out tactically in days or weeks. Others move more slowly over months and years. These tend to get ignored in the modern world of twitter and 24-hour news cycles. But then, as with the sub-prime collapse in 2008, the future suddenly meets the present. We can see the same pattern underway with […]

Continue Reading