Cheap used phones priced at<$200 are now the only growth area in the smartphone market. Companies who just sell hardware are now set to be Losers as their profits tumble. Companies like Apple, with a strong brand and service offering, will be long-term Winners.
Chemicals and the Economy
Stimulus programmes have created a major debt crisis, as the money cannot be repaid
The problem is that most economic models were originally built in the 1960s/70s, when people still died around pension age, and are out-of-date
Its ‘Minsky Moment’ time again as investors start to worry about return of capital
“You can’t run the most reckless monetary and fiscal experiment in history without the bill eventually coming due. The first invoice arrived as inflation. The second has come as a financial panic, with economic damage that may not end with Silicon Valley Bank.”
Today’s financial crisis confirms that “failing to plan, equals planning to fail”
Companies and investors need to invest time now on having a genuine debate about the risks ahead. The regulatory failures of the past few days highlight what can quickly go wrong, if one hasn’t war-gamed out potential risks. As the saying goes, “Failing to plan, equals planning to fail”.
Japan’s premier warns of “social dysfunction” as ageing populations challenge Western and Chinese economies
Japan has wasted trillions of yen with its failed stimulus programmes. Had it devoted even a tenth of this money to developing a proper Retraining programme for people in their 50s/60s, it wouldn’t now be facing a major debt and currency crisis. The rest of the Western world needs to rapidly learn from its mistake.
The end of stimulus, and the growing importance of demographics, means the economy could face a major downturn
‘Business as usual’ has been a great strategy for the past 40 years. But nothing lasts forever. It has now – like the central banks’ stimulus policies – hit the inevitable brick wall.
Break glass in case of emergency – the 2023 outlook for the economy
Please join me for my free ACS webinar on Thursday, December 15, 2022 @ 2-3pm ET.
The car market is crashing
Winners and Losers are becoming inevitable in the world’s largest manufacturing industry. Companies and their suppliers have to manage fixed costs to survive the recession. But they also have to invest in EV/AVs if they want to have a business in the future.
‘The chemical industry is screaming “Recession”‘
The chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy and its message couldn’t be any clearer:
A severe global recession is imminent.
Markets will see plenty of rallies, but history suggests the real bottom will be at least 2 years away
The history of the 1929 and 2000 downturns suggests the real pain is yet to come. Housing markets look terribly over-valued around the world, as I noted last month. And US consumer sentiment is at all-time lows. So most company earnings seem set to fall, with more than 60% of US CEOs now expecting to see a recession.