German Chancellor Merkel’s recent comment that “I don’t see anything which signals a recession in Germany” is just one sign of the current complacency about the global economy within the Western political elite. Long-standing readers will remember Profs Eichengreen and O’Rourke 2009-10 work comparing today’s Great Recession with the Depression of the 1930s. Worryingly, the […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Roubini cautions on China growth, highlights India
Prof Nouriel Roubini, one of the few to forecast the current Crisis, is very positive about the opportunities for growth in India over the next 20 years. Speaking in Mumbai, he argued that: • “While the economies of India and China are not large enough to lead global growth, emerging markets remain ‘bright spots’ compared […]
Roubini on the 2009 Outlook
Prof Nouriel Roubini has long been correctly bearish about the economy, and was one of the first to highlight the deflation risk. In a new interview, he sets out his thoughts for 2009, and concludes: “I don’t believe we are going to be in a depression – but we could end up like Japan that […]
US housing weakens again
US housing continues to weaken as the financial crisis of the past 2 months takes its toll of prospective homebuyers. Yesterday’s Case-Shiller index of house prices showed a “broad-based decline” in September, posting record annual declines of 17%. Similarly, the above chart from the ACC’s weekly report shows new housing starts (red line) at a […]
Deflation threatens
Prof Nouriel Roubini of New York University was one of those to correctly forecast a global recession. He is now warning in a detailed new article that “sharp deflationary pressures” are likely to hit in 2009. As evidence, he notes: • the supply glut that has emerged in “housing, consumer durables, motor vehicles” • “the […]
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