OPEC and Russia made a massive mistake last November when when they decided to try and establish a $50/bbl floor for world oil prices. And now they have doubled down on their mistake by extending the deal to March 2018. They have ignored 4 absolutely critical facts: Major US shale oil producers were already […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Auto sales and the oil price: the Great Unwinding continues
Serious questions need to be asked about the likely level of future demand growth for oil and auto sales in Emerging Markets (EMs), as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Oil market volatility has reached near-record levels in H1 this year, as the first chart shows. […]
Oil prices remain at pre-2005 levels as inventories rise
Its mid-winter in Russia, and the snow is deep in some parts of Moscow. Meanwhile in Venezuela the economy is close to meltdown, and its hard to find even essentials in Caracas. So it is no real surprise that this month saw their Oil Ministers head for “important discussions” in the warmer climate of the […]
Auto sales slump in Japan, Brazil and Russia as China slows
China’s slowdown is continuing to reverberate around the world. One way of measuring this is to look at auto sales in countries closely linked to China’s market such as Japan, Russia and Brazil. As the chart shows, they did well during China’s stimulus period, but they are struggling now. By comparison, more self-sufficient India has […]
H1 auto sales fall 2% in Top 7 markets, as BRIJ sales drop 15%
Hi data for auto sales in world’s top 7 markets is confirming my suggestion last October that global auto sales had reached their “top of the mountain moment“. Total volume was down 2.1% versus 2014, with sales in Russia and Brazil showing major downturns. As the chart shows, the sales decline is focused on the […]
Brazilian, Russian, Japanese auto markets continue to struggle
Bill White’s important critique of the policies being followed by his former central bank colleagues echoes his warnings before the 2008 Crisis. One of his key points is that they have focused on manipulating the value of financial assets, ratehr than on developments in the real economy: “The price of financial assets, just think of Bunds […]
Q1 auto sales rise just 1.9% in world’s ‘Top 7’ markets
Its hard to be optimistic about the outlook for the global auto market. The chart above of the Top 7 markets, which account for around 2/3rds of global sales, highlights the growing uncertainty. It shows Q1 sales in 2015 (blue column) versus 2014 (blue). Overall, these were up just 1.9% at 15.8m. And although the […]
OPEC hit as ‘peak oil demand’ arrives and US imports fall
Oil market traders have been having fun in recent weeks, as they have managed to create guaranteed price movements every week: US oil inventory data is published on Tuesday and Wednesday This gives traders the chance to push prices lower as the inventories continue to rise US oil rig data is published on Friday This creates the chance to […]
BRIJ auto markets continue to struggle
Q1 showed little sign of improvement in the world’s second-tier auto markets – Brazil, Russia, India, Japan. In total, their sales used to equal those of the EU, the world’s 3rd largest market. But Q1 volumes saw a 16% decline versus 2014 levels, as the chart shows: Japan’s sales were boosted in 2014 (blue column) by buying ahead […]
BRIJ auto sales head in different directions
There has been a lot of wishful thinking over the past 15 years about the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The experts told us they were all going to become middle class overnight, and ensure that global growth continued to motor, even as the West slowed. Reality has proved rather different, of course. This makes […]
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