Tag Archives | stock markets

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P/E ratios drop back to more realistic levels

Source: www.chartoftheday.comThe price/earnings (P/E) ratio is the most fundamental measure of stock market value. If investors are optimistic, they will pay a high price per unit of earnings. If they are cautious, then the ratio will be lower. Thus the above chart from chartoftheday.com highlights a very significant secular change underway in investor mindsets. It […]

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Global stock markets still below 2007/8 peaks

By coincidence, the blog’s 6-monthly review of global stock markets takes place in March/September, so its review last March took place just as the market rally began. This week is therefore a good time to review developments since then. Russia has been the the best performer (up 160%) and India up 100%. Brazil, another BRIC […]

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3 Scenarios for Financial Markets

The Financial Times’ Investment Editor argues this week that “there is no point in forecasting stock market performance to the last digit“. Instead it presents 3 scenarios for 2010: • Standard Bear Market. This view suggests that the current rally is “the normal adjustment after a market crash“. After the rally ends, we will then […]

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Markets enjoy a “reflexive rebound”

6 months ago, when the blog last reviewed global stock market performance, it thought it likely we would “continue to see major bear market rallies“. Coincidentally, 7 March proved to be a market bottom, since when markets are up a minimum of 36%. Russia is the best performer, up 108%, whilst China is the weakest. […]

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Stock markets continue to weaken

The chart above represents a sad story, with all major stock markets now down at least 48% since their peaks in 2007/8. When the blog last reviewed performance in September, Shanghai had been the worst performer, down 69% from its October 2007 peak. Since then, it seems to have stabilised, with the market down 64% […]

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Dow Jones’ 1st year fall worse than 1929

The chart presents a sobering view of recent stock market performance. It shows (courtesy of chartoftheday.com) the Dow’s performance in the first year of all bear markets since 1900. Since its 2007 peak, the Dow has fallen more than in any other bear market, even more than in 1929.

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The April Fools Day rally

There is an extraordinary main feature in this week’s Barron’s, the leading US investment magazine. This analyses the dramatic 391 point rally in the Dow Jones Industrials Index on 1 April. It describes this as ‘a spectacular exercise in the absurd’, and claims that the root cause was an April Fools spoof sent out that […]

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Selling the rallies

Stock markets are usually good indicators of future economic conditions. Their savage downturn since the start of the year suggests that investors now feel a growth slowdown is almost inevitable. Barrons (the major US investment paper) today highlights another very worrying development. It notes that ‘selling rallies aggressively is (now) more fruitful than buying every […]

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Greed and Fear

Bill Gross runs PIMCO, the world’s largest government bond managers with assets of nearly $700bn. In a new commentary, he pulls no punches about what he sees as the ‘gluttony’ of the super-rich amongst the private equity and hedge fund elite. He also takes aim at the lenders who, in his view, have been ‘too […]

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