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Chemicals and the Economy

Average US auto loan term hits record 68 months in May

May was “another fantastic month for US auto sales”.  Or, it took the industry “one month closer to an inevitable downturn”.  All depends on which analyst you talk to: Ward’s Autos called May’s sales the best since July 2005 LMC Automotive suggested growth rates were slowing, and could possibly even contract next year It also depends […]

Subprime loans drive US auto sales growth

Major problems are developing in the US auto market.   The critical issue is that companies have been adding capacity since 2009 on the basis that demand would return to SuperCycle levels.  But it hasn’t. The result is that the mass market has become more and more competitive.  Only sales into the high margin luxury/pickup segments are actually […]

Price war looms in US auto market as incentives increase

The blog is awarding itself a pat on the back this morning, as its forecast last month for the US auto market seems to have proved more accurate than those of the experts. Under the heading ‘US automakers increase incentives as sales fail to boom’, it forecast: “The blog therefore suspects that March will be […]

US auto buyers head for fuel efficiency

Every now and then, genuinely good news comes along in terms of consumer demand. Today is one of those days. As the chart above shows, US auto sales in March (red square) were the highest monthly total since March 2007. They also followed relatively strong sales figures for February, which adds to the good news. […]

US auto sales continue to disappoint

One characteristic of recessions is that recovery is always ‘just around the corner’. We can see this pattern in today’s US auto market. Since 2009, forecasters have been convinced that sales will quickly return to Supercycle levels of 15-17 million/year. But sadly, by around this time of year, it has become clear that nothing has […]

Chrysler warns of China threat

Chrysler CEO, Sergio Marchionne, has issued a wake-up call to Western auto companies about the growth of China’s exports. He warns that they “can’t count on dramatic growth in Asia to drive prosperity“, and suggests that China’s plans to increase auto exports pose an “enormous” risk. Meanwhile, US auto sales disappointed again in July. As […]

US auto sales disappoint, again

Time was when US auto sales only rarely dipped below 1.1 million/month. Since the Great Recession began, however, they have only rarely been above this level. Analysts are yet to take this change on board. So June’s 1.05 million figure (red square) was described as a ‘surprise’. Yet as the chart shows, most months this […]

US auto buyers shift towards the New Normal

US auto sales remained stable last month. As the chart shows (red line), they were just above the 1.1 million level. Until the Crisis began in 2008, this was the minimum level for monthly sales, but now it seems to have become more of a maximum. Beneath the surface, some other significant changes are underway: […]

US consumers shift to fuel-efficient autos

After 2.5 years of 0% interest rates, $5trn of government stimulus and a payroll tax cut, the US economy is finally beginning to create jobs again. The jobless rate fell last month to 8.8%. And the wider U-6 jobless rate, which includes those unemployed for more than 6 months, fell to 15.7%. In turn, this […]

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