By John Richardson MONITORING demand has never been harder because of the pandemic. One of my colleagues on the ICIS Pricing team was, for example, last week told by one of his reliable contacts that polyethylene (PE) demand was good, bad or indifferent. It used to be that if you talked to the people you […]
Chemical Connections
China’s new five-year-plan to accelerate petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson IT IS ONCE again a critical moment in forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals industry and with it, of course, the direction of the global industry, as the global industry so heavily depends on China. If China’s deficits were to entirely disappear, what would many of us then do for a […]
Consumers will experience better days, and with newer clothes
Most of the statistics bantered about right now are coronavirus-related, which means they are monotonous at best and heartbreaking at worst. Even New Zealand, which stood out as an example of how to handle the crisis, celebrated 100 days of no reported infections only to have four spring up a few days later, which spurred […]
Why a new stimulus deal could be critical for US polyethylene demand
By John Richardson GOVERNMENT stimulus is crucial for protecting polyethylene (PE) markets in the West from the worst effects of the pandemic, in my opinion. The developing world is a different story because of the rise of extreme poverty. There are other factors behind the resilience of PE demand the US and the EU such […]
With so much hanging in the balance, let data light the way
The fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020 is the most consequential quarter in generations. It feels like hyperbole to type and sounds just as sensationalistic when said aloud, but not since Q4 1941, when the bombing of Pearl Harbor changed the US’ relationship with the rest of the globe for the next 80 years, has there […]
China moves closer to Iran as tensions with the US build: Implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson Opinions and emotions and can shape how we interpret data, but, as we all know, our personal views need to be put on hold and our emotions held in check when the numbers are being crunched. This is of course easier said than done on highly emotive subjects such as the widening […]
China polyolefins market H1 review: so far so good, but beware of the risks ahead
By John Richardson ALL looks fine in the polyolefins world. The Old Normal appears to have reasserted itself as Chinese demand has come roaring back. (Note that all the following numbers are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated.) H1 2020 data shows that polyethylene (PE) apparent demand (net imports plus local production) grew by […]
Polyethylene market recovery could be threatened by slower China crude buying, weaker economic growth
By John Richardson EVEN by China’s standards, where just about every number is eye-wateringly large, the data on oil imports during the first seven months of this year is quite extraordinary. Reuters writes: July seaborne arrivals into the world’s biggest oil importer are expected to surge to 14.4m bbl/day, Refinitiv analyst Emma Li said, well […]
Why the polypropylene industry must switch from volumes to value
By John Richardson EVERYONE knows about the oversupply in the polyethylene (PE) market as it has been discussed in more presentations and conferences than any of have had hot dinners. But less understood is the extent of oversupply in the global polypropylene (PP) business, which you can see from the above chart on the left. […]
Helping the chemical supply chain not be BlackBerry
Market-driven economics work, even if they at first are overwhelmed by unprecedented demand. Such is the case with isopropanol (IPA), whose demand for use in sanitation remains at levels stronger than before the coronavirus pandemic gripped the world. But US IPA prices continue to fall from the stratospheric heights achieved in April when initial demand […]
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