Asian stockmarkets fall on stagflation risk

Currencies, Economic growth, Leverage, Oil markets

I noted earlier this year that China was now exporting inflation, rather than the deflation of the past decade. Working in Asia again this week, one can see a major change in attitudes is now underway. Rising food and energy prices are having an enormous impact, and Asian governments are clearly nervous about the potential for greater political unrest.

Therefore many have instead introduced subsidies of one type or another. In addition, central banks have allowed real interest rates in every major country to turn negative. For example, China’s real borrowing rate is now -1.03%, as inflation is higher than the benchmark interest rate. Across the region, rates average 6.75%, well below average inflation of 7.5%.

Governments fear that raising benchmark interest rates would push up currency values, and damage exports. But many are still keen to cool their domestic economies. So they use other levers instead. This week, for example, China raised the deposit rates for banks to 17.5%, forcing banks to cut back on loans to companies and individuals. India followed, raising its rate to 8%, and Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and Pakistan also raised rates.

The result was a major fall in stock markets. China’s benchmark index, the CSI, plunged 15%, the biggest fall on record, and is now down 44% for the year. Benchmark Asian indexes also fell around 7% on the week. And the Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, Stephen Roach, warned that the world was ‘in denial’ about the likelihood that Asia would now start to export ‘stagflation’ (stagnant growth, plus inflation). Stagflation last occured in the 1970’s. This time, he argued, ‘it will be made in Asia’.

Chemical companies, faced with rising feedstock costs and the prospect of lower volumes, might well argue that it has already happened.

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