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Deflation threatens

Economic growth, Financial Events, Leverage, Oil markets
By Paul Hodges on 30-Oct-2008

Prof Nouriel Roubini of New York University was one of those to correctly forecast a global recession. He is now warning in a detailed new article that “sharp deflationary pressures” are likely to hit in 2009.

As evidence, he notes:

• the supply glut that has emerged in “housing, consumer durables, motor vehicles”
• “the unemployment rate is sharply up” and “commodity prices are sharply down”
• “the Baltic Freight index – the best measure of international shipping trade – is down 90% from its May peak”

These conditions have already led to a major loss of pricing power for many chemical products in recent weeks. Whilst the blog hopes that the New Year may see some improvement, Roubini’s analysis suggests that today’s problems might instead continue for some time. Prudent CEOs and CFOs will need to develop contingency plans for this depressing prospect.