China’s export-led economy was badly hit when the financial Crisis began in Q4 2008. In response, the government moved quickly to stimulate domestic consumption, in order to keep people employed. It doubled bank lending overnight, and introduced a $580bn stimulus programme. Worth 13% of GDP, this alone was far larger than any seen elsewhere. Doubling […]
Chemicals and the Economy
G-20 delivers “platitudes” as Obama hits at China
The blog has a simple measure for the effectiveness of international meetings. It counts the number of words in the communiqué. The logic behind this is that when people are really focused, they get down to business. When they waffle, then you know nothing will happen. The history of the recent G-20 meetings seems to […]
Chemical companies have mixed views on outlook
The blog’s regular review of quarterly company results presents a mixed picture. Compared to a year ago, some have certainly become more optimistic – Dow, for example, are now “confident in a sustained global recovery“, whereas in 2009 they did “not count on material improvements in market conditions”. But others, whilst pleased with current results, […]
UK house prices begin to slip
The UK housing market has presented a confusing picture over the past 2 years. Unlike Spain, Ireland, or the USA, the lax lending conditions of the Boom years did not seem to lead to major price falls. In fact, along with Australia (benefiting from China’s commodity boom), UK prices even appeared to recover. This was […]
Warsh calls for “better policies” as G-20 meets
US Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is one of the few policymakers to focus on reality rather than wishful thinking. He pointed out nearly 3 years ago that liquidity should not be mistaken for capital, although others continue to ignore this uncomfortable fact. Now, in advance of tomorrow’s G-20 meeting of the world’s richest economies, he […]
Chemicals set for “strong” year-end as oil jumps 7%
Last week, the blog repeated its warning that crude oil was preparing for a big move, either up or down. And prices then jumped 7%, to a two-year high of $87.49/bbl. So the ‘triangle formation’ proved its predictive power again. As the above chart shows, from Petromatrix, the driver behind the move was the Large […]
US wages continue to stagnate
The US Fed’s move to launch its QE2 Lifeboat continues its policy of focusing on measures to boost liquidity. Yet as the blog has long argued, today’s problems are based on a lack of solvency not liquidity. Therefore it worries that the Fed’s efforts are likely to miss the mark, again. The above slide, based […]
US Fed launches its $600bn QE2 Lifeboat
So now its official. This week, the US Federal Reserve confirmed it was launching its ‘QE2 Lifeboat’. It will inject $600bn into the US economy, in yet another bid to kick-start full economic recovery. Clearly, this is a major initiative by the world’s most important central bank. Will it work? And what might it mean […]
China’s futures markets give mixed messages
China’s Dalian futures market has been attracting world headlines recently, with its status as China’s leading market for chemical futures being confirmed. As such, one would expect its pricing for the two major polymers traded, LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) and PVC, to follow similar patterns. But this seems not to be the case. The […]
Leading industry figures at Aromatics Conference
Later this month, Berlin hosts our annual European Aromatics & Derivatives conference, held as usual with ICIS. It has one of our strongest-ever speaker line-ups, and covers a number of important areas: What next for aromatics? Sven Royall, Shell’s VP Intermediates, will present his view of the outlook for the value chain. Ralf Kuhlmann, formerly […]
Jump to page: