Pity for a moment those poor souls whose income depends on finding ever-more creative ways of justifying today’s record levels of oil prices. One by one, all their favourite stories have disappeared. Even the traditional summer warnings of record hurricane disruption have so far failed to deliver. How different it is from the start of the crisis, when the […]
Chemicals and the Economy
UK plans switch to polymer banknotes
The UK plans to join Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico and Singapore in switching to polymer banknotes. On Tuesday, the Bank of England announced a public consultation on the issue. It gives 3 main reasons for the change: The new notes will be more secure, as they will have advanced features making them more difficult to […]
Boom/Gloom Index shows sentiment remains positive
US and UK policymakers have been more upbeat recently in claiming that “the economy was turning a corner”. Although they have not yet gone as far as in September 2009, when the G20 issued a statement that began “It worked!”, and claimed the recession was now over. Helpfully, the IeC Boom/Gloom Index has again done its job in capturing this improved sentiment. […]
China lending remains out of control ahead of November’s plenum
The blog’s views on the unsustainability of China’s epic economic growth since 2009 have now become truly mainstream. Everyone now agrees, including the new leadership, that it was created by a credit bubble. State-owned China Daily has even now warned that a commercial property bubble potentially now exists alongside the residential bubble and the infrastructure ‘white elephants’, adding: “Once […]
US auto sales surge as leasing deals remain cheaper than used cars
US auto sales showed continued progress in August. As the chart shows, August volume at 1.5m (red square) was a new record for the month, and 17% above 2012 levels (green line). In turn, of course, this was excellent news for chemical manufacturers, as the American Chemistry Council calculate each new car is worth $3539 to the industry. […]
US jobs report shows 3 million fewer employed than in 2007
One day, policymakers will accept the obvious truth that economic growth slows in ageing societies as more people enter their low spending and low earning years. Already, for example, 36% of adult Americans* are in the New Old 55+ generation compared to just 29% in 2000. And by 2020, there will be 39%. But the […]
Ronald Coase dies at age 102
Ronald Coase is one of those great thinkers whose ideas have influenced the business world, even though most people have never heard their name. The blog only heard of him in the early 1990s, and was astounded when it read his work. The book had the rather dry title of “The firm, the market and the […]
“Disaster is still some way off” for Cyprus, as Germany prepares to vote
Back in April, the blog suggested that capital controls might remain for rather longer in Cyprus than the “few days or weeks” suggested by the central bank. And a month later, the bank was still unrealistically claiming they would be lifted “as soon as possible”. Today, the blog’s own view that they could be in place “for […]
India’s auto industry “continues towards downwards path”
Car companies are normally optimistic. You rarely hear them saying that things are saying that things are bad – they prefer instead to focus on how things are just about to get better. This makes recent statements by India’s auto manufacturers association even more remarkable. August sales data was announced in a press release headed “Auto Industry […]
Pension fund speculation boosts oil prices as consumers suffer
Think back over the past 5 years. Can you remember a single time when oil supplies were actually difficult to find? If you can’t, then you have the same memory as the blog. Official statistics support this view. Thus last week’s US EIA report noted that “U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit […]
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