The period since March 2009 has been a wonderful time for most investors in the major markets. As the blog’s 6-monthly update shows, almost every index has increased, and by large amounts: Russia has been the biggest winner, up 151%, due to its oil and gas export position The US is up 147%, as the […]
Chemicals and the Economy
G7 births hit new record low in 2012
The G7 group of countries are almost half (47%) of global GDP*. They also have the highest incomes, and are therefore still the major driver for the global economy. If we understand what is happening to their populations, we have a great insight in the key driver for demand, as we showed in ‘Boom, Gloom and the […]
Maersk’s $3.7bn new ships investment underwater as global ‘demographic dividend’ ends
The red line in the above chart from the Financial Times shows how far Eurozone growth has diverged since 2008 from the previous SuperCycle trend (in blue). Unfortunately, most companies failed to spot what might happen as a result of Europe’s ageing population. Instead they spent $bns on new capacity in anticipation of a strong economic […]
Income and age will determine American’s future housing needs
Affordability is the key factor in today’s markets. And nowhere is this more true than in US housing. The subprime lending boom of the early 2000s is now long finished. And US GDP growth averages just 1.7% since 2000. So understanding the detailed picture of income levels is becoming critically important for forecasting future demand. Housing used […]
Scenario planning critical in forecasting 2014 China product growth
Anyone not closely studying trade data is likely to make some very expensive mistakes over the next few years. The reason is that economics is no longer the sole driver for purchase decisions. Instead, political and social issues can be of greater importance. The chart above of China’s polyethylene demand highlights this complexity, using Global […]
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