India’s stock market has hit new records this week, as investors anticipate radical policy changes after election results are announced today. And the chart above highlights a key area behind the need for change, namely the problems of the important auto market: Indian auto sales dipped in April to just 183k (red square) This is […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Toy industry hit by lack of babies
The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is below. The industry is going through major difficulties, which is bad news not only for its suppliers of plastic and other components. It is also a problem for China, which manufactures 70% of the world’s toys. The toy industry is going through difficult […]
Europe faces Russian gas and oil supply risk over Ukraine
History shows that that governments usually lose arguments with energy suppliers. UK premier Harold Macmillan summed up the position when talking about coal miners in the 1950s, warning: “There are three bodies no sensible man directly challenges: the Roman Catholic Church, the Brigade of Guards and the National Union of Mineworkers” Unfortunately, Europe now potentially faces an argument with its leading gas […]
China’s president highlights ‘new normal’ of economic growth
China’s President Xi Jinping became the first world leader to highlight the move into a “new normal” at the weekend: “China is still in a significant period of strategic opportunity. We must boost our confidence, adapt to the new normal condition based on the characteristics of China’s economic growth in the current phase and stay cool-minded” “Through […]
Chemical and oil prices still lower than 3 years ago
Its now 3 years since the blog suggested on 2 May 2011: “They don’t ring bells at market turning points. Otherwise, we could all retire to the Bahamas. But there is growing anecdotal evidence, from chemical buyers and the main retailers, that we may have reached at least a temporary market peak. And Brent crude oil […]
Consumer demand patterns change as Boomers return to cities
The ageing BabyBoomers are now leaving the suburbs in large numbers, and moving back to the cities, as the blog discussed in October. Thus as the Wall Street Journal reports, housing needs are changing quite dramatically. The main growth area for housing is now in high-rise apartment towers built for rent: “The growth in new rental […]
Ageing BabyBoomers slow housing, auto markets
As promised yesterday, the blog today looks at the wider impact of the major changes underway in housing markets. Driven by the ageing BabyBoomers these changes are, in effect, like throwing a series of large stones into the middle of a pool of water – the ripples spread wider and wider as the impact grows. One key […]
US home ownership falls back to 1995 levels, as Boomers retire
US housing demand used to be a major support for the US economy. But that was in the days when millions of new BabyBoomer families wanted to set up home in the suburbs and raise a family. The rule was simple – if prices were high, you just drove 10 miles down the freeway to find a […]
China’s PE imports jump 26% as credit bubble peaks
Strange things are happening in China’s polyethylene (PE) market, as the chart shows: Imports suddenly jumped 26% in Q1 (red column) versus last year (green) This would be an extraordinary amount at any time, but especially now with the economy slowing It comes at a time when China’s own production continued to increase, up 8% As a result, […]
Geopolitics lead to Boom/Gloom Index tumble after record high
The IeC Boom/Gloom Index (blue column) proved its value again last month. It shot to a new record high, and this was then followed by a record high for both the S&P 500 (red line) and the Dow Jones Industrials. But now the Index has fallen sharply. This highlights the major divergence between developments in the […]
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