Financial players have become convinced in recent months that the oil price will rise. And so far, this has been a self-fulfilling prophecy. Their buying has led to oil being stored all over the world – in tankers floating at sea and in shale oil wells, as well as in storage tanks. Unsurprisingly, prices have […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Greece, oil price and China auto outlook the key topics for tomorrow’s free pH Report webinar
Will Greece default on its debt, and what would be the impact if it did? How long before oil prices return to their historical levels around $30/bbl? What is the outlook for new car sales in China, now its used car market is developing fast? These are some of the key questions we will be […]
Greece introduces capital controls; IMF says it needs to default
This morning, Greece introduced capital controls. People can only withdraw €60/day ($65) from their bank accounts. The government has also called a referendum on Sunday, after Eurozone talks on a new bailout package collapsed. The key issue is that Greece will never be able to repay its debts. These are currently estimated at €322bn ($365bn) […]
The blog’s 8th birthday
It seems hard to imagine that the blog has now been running for 8 years. Today’s post is the 2195th to be published since it began on 22 June 2007, and as the map shows, it continues to be read all over the world, with the Top 10 countries being USA; UK; Germany; Singapore; India; […]
Auto sales continue their decline in Japan, Russia and Brazil
This time last year, it was still possible to believe that sales in the world’s Tier 2 auto markets were on an upward trend: Japan, the largest of the 4 markets, had seen sales slow after Q1’s boost from buying ahead of April’s sales tax increase, but the government was confident this was only temporary […]
Demographic changes hit US chlorine and caustic soda demand
Its not all fun being part of the US millennial generation (those born between 1980 – 2000). They number 80 million, about the same as the BabyBoomer generation. But as the New York Times notes: “The millennial generation has less wealth and more debt than other generations did at the same age, thanks to student […]
Impact of China’s New Normal policies on oil, petchem and financial markets – free pH Report webinar next Tuesday
China was the “saviour “of the global economy after the financial Crisis of 2008. Its massive stimulus was worth over $10tn from 2009 to 2014 – half of the total amount. But now China’s new leadership has changed course, and has introduced its New Normal policies. As a result, its economy is slowing, and its […]
Retail markets expose the ‘middle class’ myth in emerging economies
5 years ago, the Swiss food company Nestlé forgot everything it had ever learnt about emerging markets, and suddenly decided that Africa was just about to become ‘middle class’ by Western standards. Now it is having to pay the price for its mistake, and is cutting 15% of its workforce in the equatorial Africa region. […]
Fed’s loss of credibility risks causing investor stampede
Credibility is hard to gain. And once gone, it is very hard to regain. That is the challenge facing the US Federal Reserve today. The New York Times is just one of the mainstream media now starting to highlight the issue, as last week’s Fed meeting led to a further deferral of the promised rise […]
10 forecasts for the New Normal world in 2020
We seem to be approaching Stage 2 of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus, as the economic implications of demographic change become ever stronger. The combination of today’s ageing populations with the collapse in fertility rates means it is totally unrealistic to expect growth rates to continue at the SuperCycle levels of the past. They were turbo-charged by […]
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