Global stock markets turned in a vintage experience last week for those who like horror movies. Continued sell-offs in China finally convinced some financial investors, and some senior Western policymakers, that its economy might not be quite as strong as they had assumed. The ensuing panic led to record profits for the high frequency traders (HFTs), as the Dow Jones […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s smartphone market goes ex-growth as costs fall to $20
China has the highest smartphone penetration in the world at 62%. It had 632m mobile subscribers, with 70% of new connections based on 4G connections. But sales actually fell in Q2 by 4%. This was the first time they have ever fallen and is further confirmation of the major change taking place in China under […]
Outlook for the global aromatics industry – insights from senior executives at Amsterdam Conference
Aromatics markets often lead petrochemical markets, and provide good insight into economic trends. This has certainly been true of PTA (terephthalic acid) and benzene over the past year. PTA demand into polyester and PET is dominated by Asia: benzene’s wide variety of uses means it is a good proxy for industrial production in Europe. Recent developments have been […]
Contagion hits financial markets as Great Unwinding continues
Crude oil prices continued to fall towards $30/bbl last week. Markets are finally starting to recognise, as the BBC reported last year, that ‘China fooled the world‘ with its stimulus programme. It had not suddenly become middle-class by Western standards in 2009. Instead, aided by developed country stimulus policies, its own stimulus had helped create […]
Inflation turns to deflation as stimulus debt now has to be repaid
Its not what we know that causes the major problems. Its what we think we know, but don’t. We know, for example, that markets balance supply and demand by shifting prices up and down. Too much demand and/or too little supply, will mean higher prices and inflation. This is what happened as the BabyBoom took place: Medical […]
“If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold”: China’s New Normal policies require companies to undertake radical strategy reviews
Wishful thinking can be terribly dangerous for company profits. Taken to extremes, it can lead them into bankruptcy. Recent developments in China thus make it essential for every company to immediately review its strategy for doing business in/with the country, against a realistic outlook for 2016-2018 GDP growth will likely be zero, and could well […]
Oil heads to $30/bbl as Great Unwinding reaches 1st anniversary
Global markets are becoming ever more complex as the Great Unwinding of stimulus policies continues. This means that each blog post is now taking much longer to write. It therefore seems sensible to focus on writing 3 posts each week – on Monday, Wednesday and Friday – in order to continue to provide the highest possible […]
Older people are being forced to spend less
The Financial Times has kindly printed my letter below, commenting on the change taking place in demand patterns as a result of ageing populations. Sir, It was interesting to see the UK’s employment and pension ministers reminding FT readers that “by 2022, there will be 3.7m more people aged between 50 and state pension age […]
The blog returns on 17 August
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