You never meet a shy and retiring car salesman. They are always bursting with confidence, about to sell you a tremendous deal. So we have to expect that the companies are always going to be confident about the future – even when it looks unpromising to everyone else. 2008 is close enough, that we can […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Global GDP sees record fall in 2015 as world hits “demographic cliff”
Central bankers remain in Denial about the failure of their stimulus policies. Yet new IMF data for global GDP shows GDP fell by $3.8tn in 2015 – the biggest fall on record – as the world hits the “demographic cliff”. We have now seen 2 record falls in 6 years, as the previous record was $3.3tn […]
“World faces wave of epic debt defaults” – central bank veteran
Only one central banker spotted the subprime crisis before it occurred – William White. Now he is warning that the world will have to revive the Old Testament concept of “debt jubilees“, with much of today’s debt being written off: “Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such […]
Further chaos ahead for cotton and polyester markets as China aims to release its cotton stocks
Cotton has been on a roller-coaster ride over the past decade – to record high prices and then partial collapse. This was followed by China’s decision to build the world’s largest ever cotton inventory as part of its post-2009 stimulus programme, to protect cotton farmers. This inventory, being off the market, means cotton has been […]
Global car sales growth stalls without China
Where would the global auto industry be without the Chinese market? Without China, sales in the other Top 6 markets stalled last year, and were down 100k. And what will happen now China’s economy is slowing, and it is also starting to develop a large used car market for the first time? Buyers will then […]
Prepare for $10-$15/bbl oil as Iran, US return to the market
Oil markets finally entered their “give-up phase” last week. Amazingly, it is now nearly 18 months since the start of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus in August 2014, when Brent was still $105/bbl. On Friday night, Brent closed at $29/bbl. As ICIS Chemical Business (ICB) notes in its latest editorial: “International eChem’s Paul Hodges […]
Force majeures at record level, despite high profits
All accidents are preventable. This simple fact, which used to be top-of-mind for every chemical industry manager, seems to have been increasingly either forgotten or ignored in recent years. The evidence is in the chart above: showing industry force majeures since 2008 (as reported on ICIS news): They were at a record level in 2015, […]
Oil hits $30/bbl – and suddenly, analysts forecast lower prices
Yesterday, oil prices reached my long-held $30/bbl forecast level. And suddenly, it seems, all the leading analysts have begun to forecast lower oil prices. As Reuters reported: “Adjusting to the price rout, analysts have been shifting their price outlooks downward, with Barclays, Macquarie, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Standard Chartered and Societe Generale all cutting […]
Expect $25 – $30/bbl oil and lower chemical prices in 2016
More than $2.3tn was wiped off the value of global stocks last week as China’s slowing economy and currency depreciations spooked investors around the world, leading to the worst start to a year for markets in at least two decades. This is the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus in action. Worse is likely to come. […]
Financial markets feel impact of the Great Unwinding
Its not been a great start to the year for those who have trusted in conventional wisdom: Western stock markets have been reeling, with the US S&P 500 Index down sharply since Monday It has been the worst opening for world stock markets since 2008 – not a good year for investors China’s currency has […]