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Chemicals and the Economy

Budgeting for the Great Reckoning

One thing is certain about the 2017 – 2019 Budget period.  “Business as usual” is the least likely Scenario to occur. The IMF chart above highlights the key issue: for the past 5 years, all its forecasts of a return to “normal” levels of growth have proved over-optimistic:   Back in 2011, the IMF was […]

Fed’s economic models applied to a past era

The Financial Times has kindly printed my letter below, welcoming the Fed’s decision to address the impact of demographics, but arguing that it needs to focus on demand issues, given the impact of today’s ageing populations. Sir, It is good to see the US Federal Reserve is finally beginning to address the impact of demographics […]

President Xi takes “core” leader role as China heads for political turbulence

Outside observers often imagine that China’s political structure is uniquely disciplined – unlike, say the US Republican Party, or the UK Labour Party, or indeed, political parties anywhere.  But the fact that most arguments take place behind closed doors, and aren’t reported in the state-controlled media, doesn’t mean that the arguments don’t happen. Yesterday’s announcement […]

ExxonMobil, Saudi Arabia, differ on oil outlook – or do they?

If asked about the outlook for prices, oil company CEOs normally duck the question.  And they certainly never disagree in public with Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil producer.  This is what makes the recent speech by ExxonMobil CEO, Rex Tillerson, so interesting: “I don’t quite share the same view that others have that we are somehow […]

Sustainability replaces globalisation as key driver for economy

2 weeks ago, India ratified the COP 21 Agreement.  This means the Agreement enters into force on 4 November.  81 countries, responsible for more than 55% of greenhouse gas emissions, have now agreed to reduce emissions in line with the decisions made in Paris last December.  And last week saw another landmark Agreement, with 150 countries agreeing to […]

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