We are living in a New Normal world. Populists such as Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Marine le Pen and Beppe Grillo are gaining support as economic growth slows and social/political unrest becomes common. My presentation at our annual conference last week in Vienna highlighted some of the key issues, as Jessie Waldheim of ICIS news […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Economic policy needs to focus on impact of the 100-year life
Nearly two-thirds of people in the world’s top 25 countries feel their country is heading in the wrong direction, according to a new poll from Ipsos MORI. As their chart shows: China, Saudi Arabia, India, Argentina, Peru, Canada and Russia are the only countries to record a positive feeling The other 18 are increasingly desperate […]
Industry needs new strategy to spread benefits of globalisation
The Brexit vote, and Donald Trump’s election, confirm that we are in a New Normal world. In the interview below with Will Beacham, Deputy editor of ICIS Chemical Business, I highlight some ideas about how industry needs to adapt. BARCELONA (ICIS)–The global chemical sector needs to stimulate demand for innovative products and services in mature […]
Italy’s referendum is next test for Eurozone stability
Italy was one of the 6 founding members of the European Union (EU) in 1957, along with France, the Netherlands, W Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg. Its referendum next month will therefore be a critical test of whether the Eurozone and EU can survive the pressure from the Populists. If the Populists win, then the future […]
Interest rate and US$ surge mark start of the Great Reckoning
The bond market vigilantes are back. And they clearly don’t like what they are seeing. That is the clear message from the charts above, showing movements in 10 year government bond interest rates for the major economies, plus their exchange rate against the US$ and the value of the US$ Index: As I warned […]
3 key questions for the oil market poker game, ahead of OPEC’s meeting
Volatility continues to dominate oil markets, as the above chart confirms. Some weeks have seen prices move by over 18%. These are extraordinary moves in a market which is very well supplied, with near-record inventory levels. Some recent daily moves are equally extraordinary, with prices jumping $2.50/bbl on Tuesday. The volatility highlights the power of […]
Chemical company results highlight growing weakness down the value chains
Looking down the table below of chemical company’s reports, its hard to be very optimistic about the outlook. The first half of the year disappointed, as I noted in August. Then Q3 saw major volatility as the hedge funds and high frequency traders played their games in the oil market – prices weakened as demand […]
Trump’s ‘100-day plan’ means an end to “Business as usual”
‘There are none so blind as those who will not see. The most deluded people are those who choose to ignore what they already know’ John Heywood, 1546 “When Aetna ran through post-election expectations, the idea that Donald J. Trump would win the presidency and that Republicans would control both chambers of Congress seemed so […]
Smartphone markets see calm before the storm as volume stagnates
The global smartphone market reached a fork in the road in Q3, and that was before Samsung’s disaster with the enforced recall of the Galaxy 7 model. What happens next is not yet clear, but it is likely that a focus on price and affordability will come to dominate. In turn, pricing pressures on suppliers […]
“Everyone wants to be rich”: Divorces soar with land prices as China’s housing bubble enters its final stages
One thing that “everyone knows” in China’s Tier 1 cities is that property prices can never go down. As one resident told the South China Morning Post: “The only thing I know is that buying property will not turn out to be a loss. From several thousand yuan a square metre to more than 100,000 […]
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