2016 data highlights one startling statistic about the world’s Top 7 auto markets. They are 85% of total world sales and as the chart shows, their overall sales growth since 2007 has been entirely due to China: China’s sales have risen nearly four-fold since 2007, from 6.3m to 24.2m Sales in […]
Chemicals and the Economy
The global economy’s best leading indicator forecasts a downturn
If you want to know what is happening to the global economy, the chemical industry will provide the answers. It has an excellent correlation with IMF data, and also benefits from the fact it has no “political bias”. It simply tells us what is happening in real-time in the world’s 3rd largest industry. The chart […]
Trump policies to impact global supply chains, US stock markets
Wall Street’s post-election rally suggests that many investors currently have the wrong idea about Donald Trump. They have decided he is a new Ronald Reagan, with policies that will deliver a major bull market. But those promoting this narrative have forgotten their history. Both men certainly share a link with the entertainment industry. But Reagan […]
“Demographics in mainstream economics has been under-emphasized for too long” – Andy Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England
“Will economists start to consider demographics when making their forecasts and developing government policies?” This was the question on my mind at a recent discussion on the topic of “An economy that works for everyone” at the UK’s Institute for Government. The speaker was the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, and the Institute’s […]
OPEC’s oil output gamble set to face reality as speculative buying peaks
Oil prices, and those of natural gas, have been on a wild ride over the past year, as the chart confirms. It shows US WTI prices divided by 6, as this enables a comparison with natural gas prices in terms of energy content: Oil prices have come down a long way from their […]
Trump and dollar strength will accelerate the Great Reckoning
Corporate debt in the Emerging Markets highlights the impact of the Great Reckoning, with the US dollar and interest rates rising, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Corporate borrowers in Emerging Markets (EMs) are now facing higher debt service and capital repayment costs, due to […]
Recession the base case scenario for 2017
It is hard to be optimistic about the outlook for 2017. The good news is that policymakers are finally giving up on the idea that stimulus can somehow return us to the growth levels seen when the Baby Boomers were young. As the Bank of England note in a new Report: “Economic theory suggests that a […]
Consensus wisdom defies reality around the world
“Consensus wisdom” is a handy way of keeping up with events. Nobody likes to be the person who says “I don’t know” when the boss asks a question about something important. But unfortunately, “consensus wisdom” is often wrong, as Ipsos MORI confirm in their new ‘Perils of Perception‘ survey, As the authors note: “It highlights how […]
Political risk rises as Trump sets out to change America’s relationship with the world
Global markets are becoming ever more complex as the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies continues. This means that each blog post is now taking much longer to write. It therefore seems sensible to focus on writing 2 posts each week – on Monday and Thursday – in order to continue to provide […]
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