Smartphone markets continue to provide early warning of the major changes taking place in consumer markets. And Q4 data confirms the old rules are becoming less and less relevant: As the chart shows, market positioning is now all-important. Apple are stretching their lead in the ‘sweet spot’ of the value chain – design – and […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Buyers scramble for product as global supply chains breakdown
Asian LNG prices reached $32.50/MMBTU this month, up from less than $2/MMBTU in June. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index hit $8000/TEU container (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit), up from prior rates of $1500/TEU. In Europe, UK supermarkets have warned of containing food shortages in N Ireland due to the new Brexit trading rules. None of this would […]
5 key questions for success in the New Normal
Sustainability rather than globalisation is becoming the key driver for business. And the paradigm shift this creates means that companies need to adopt new Critical Success Factors as shown above. Leadership skills will be essential at all levels of the organisation in order to stimulate the creativity and action orientation required for success. There are […]
US chemical companies face ‘wake-up call’ as Biden focuses on the Climate Change agenda
I worked for many years at a world-leading chemical company, ICI. But sadly, it lost its way as senior management began to focus more on financial metrics than market developments. In 2007, it disappeared. Today, other companies including the once-mighty ExxonMobil risk making similar mistakes: EM was the world’s most valuable company just 9 years ago It […]
Plastics producers face a ‘wake-up call’ from both ends of the value chain
Plastics producers have had a great run over the past 60 years, as demand took off for their products. But now globalisation is being replaced by sustainability. Sadly, therefore, they risk being left with an out-of-date business model, and falling revenues. Upstream, refinery closures are gathering pace as electric vehicle sales accelerate Downstream, brand owners […]
Smartphone sales confirm mid-market of ‘affordable luxury’ is disappearing
Another 3 months, another decline in global smartphone sales. And more pressure on mid-market players like Samsung, as China’s low-cost producers continue to gain market share. As the chart shows: Samsung had 35% of the global market back in 2013, but was down to 23% in Q3 Its annualised volume fell to 262 million from […]
Welcome to the New Normal – a look ahead to 2030
10 years ago, I took a look ahead at what we could expect in the next decade, as discussed last week. Unfortunately, we now face the major economic and social crises that the chart predicted, if policymakers continued with ‘business as usual’. This week, I want to look ahead at what we can expect to […]
If you don’t want to know the future, look away now
Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2021-2023 period. It will highlight how the pandemic is accelerating major paradigm shifts in society, politics and the global economy. I have been publishing these Outlooks since 2007, and they disprove the idea that forecasting is a waste of time. They highlight instead that […]
The Top 5 pandemic paradigm shifts
The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the fundamental changes which were already underway in global markets, as I discuss in a new interview with Will Beacham of I.C.I.S. Companies and investors need to focus on the challenges and opportunities created by 5 major paradigm shifts as we move into the New Normal. These will impact individual […]
Hertz goes bankrupt as non-essential consumer demand disappears
The US Federal Reserve has now spent $7tn bailing out Wall Street. But it couldn’t save the 102-year old Hertz rental company from filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for its US business on Friday night. Sadly, Hertz won’t be the only casualty. Its collapse instead marks the moment when the problems created by two […]
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