The mobility market is repeating the transformation seen a century ago when cars replaced stagecoaches. Autos are the world’s largest manufacturing industry, employing millions of people directly and in supply chains. Those companies that learn to ride the wave will likely be very successful for years to come.
Chemicals and the Economy
Suez/Panama Canal disruptions confirm need for companies to move to ‘local for local’ supply chains
The growing disruption in the Suez and Panama Canals is set to encourage more companies to move to ‘local for local’ supply chains. These are not only more resilient, but also make firms more agile – and reduce their carbon emissions.
Gasoline/diesel cars are now less than 50% of European sales as EVs and hybrids surge
These paradigm shifts are coming at the same time as the loss of the peace and demographic dividends. They are taking our world in a new direction. The likely Winners will be those companies and investors who focus on becoming demand-led.
Time for a new set of business models as the peace and demographic “dividends” become deficits again
The next few years are therefore likely to be very different from anything that we have known in our working lives. Scenario planning is therefore essential in the face of this uncertainty.
Demographics are destiny: today’s ageing populations creating “replacement economy”
Demographics are taking demand patterns in completely new directions. Sustaining future growth now depends on successfully developing and implementing new policies, focused on the opportunities offered by the emergence of the Perennials 55+ cohort. Demographics are taking demand patterns in completely new directions. Sustaining future growth now depends on successfully developing and implementing new policies, focused on the opportunities offered by the emergence of the Perennials 55+ cohort.
Middle-Income countries face a real risk of “growing old before they become rich”
China and most Middle-Income countries seem destined to grow old before they become rich. As Pew Foundation data shows, China had just 23m people who earned more than $50/day in $2011. India has only 2m.
Demographics are destiny for the global economy, as central banks start to realise
For the past 15 years, since the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have claimed they could generate demand and economic growth via stimulus. Some $73tn of spending later, it is finally becoming clear to some of them, at least, that they can’t.
Now, we all have to start picking up the pieces of the problems they have created.
COP 28 needs to see words translated into action, as carbon emissions have to peak in 2025
“Every year of the baby steps we’ve been taking up to this point means that we need to be taking bigger leaps with each following year, if we are to stay in this race. The science is absolutely clear.”
Investors hope (again) for interest rate cuts and a ‘Santa Claus rally’
investors are hoping Fed Chairman Jay Powell will soon signal a dramatic interest rate cut. And so they are positioning for a ‘Santa Claus’ rally. But most adults know that Santa Claus doesn’t really exist.
WeWork’s bankruptcy marks the beginning of the end for the stimulus economy
Essentially, the central banks thought that unlimited amounts of free money could reverse the impact of ageing populations. WeWork’s bankruptcy suggests that the bills for this mistake are now coming due, after 20 years of what the Wall Street Journal called “The most reckless monetary and fiscal experiment in history”