In an early blog last July, I marvelled at the contrast between the then upbeat nature of financial markets, and the gloom apparent elsewhere. I suggested that these two views of life couldn’t ‘continue to exist alongside each other for ever’, and suggested that whatever scenario came out on top would ‘have major implications for […]
Chemicals and the Economy
UK ‘at risk of US-style housing slump’
UK readers, and others invested in the outlook for the UK housing market, may be particularly interested in the FT this weekend. It devotes 2 prime pages to a detailed analysis by Fitch, the ratings agency, of sub-prime and buy-to-let lending. As we know from the US, these are the most risky types of lending, […]
Russian crude supply ‘peaking’
Russia is the world’s 2nd largest oil producer. And it has been the main source of increased crude production in recent years. Its output rose 58% between 1999-2006, from 6.2mbd to 9.8mbd. Now Lukoil’s VP, Leonid Fedun, has told the Financial Times that he thinks 2007 output will be ‘the highest he will see in […]
‘Sometimes those questions lead to war’
The weekend’s finance minister meeting in Washington DC seems to have been quite different from its predecessors. Not only did they apparently have an ‘informal brainstorming session’ at one point, but they also found themselves confronted with two major and on-going crises: • We have to ‘put food into hungry mouths’ commented Bob Zoellick, President […]
Every silver lining has a cloud
I am currently lucky enough to be visiting Asia every month. This also gives me a chance to ‘check the temperature’ as regards people’s outlook on the economy. And I think its fair to say that the mood has moved from optimism to caution. Good news is tempered by its potential downside.
The April Fools Day rally
There is an extraordinary main feature in this week’s Barron’s, the leading US investment magazine. This analyses the dramatic 391 point rally in the Dow Jones Industrials Index on 1 April. It describes this as ‘a spectacular exercise in the absurd’, and claims that the root cause was an April Fools spoof sent out that […]
Credit crisis losses could reach $1 trillion – IMF
Last week the IMF warned there was a 25% chance of a global recession in 2008. Today, it said that the ‘crisis (was) creating serious macroeconomic feedback effects’ and could have ‘profound financial system and macroeconomic implications’. We normally expect central bankers to weigh their words carefully. But now the IMF has decided to throw […]
The vicious circle
Paul Tucker of the Bank of England has consistently warned about the dangers posed by the credit crunch to the global economy. Back in December, he identified the key issue as being that central bankers ‘must try to avoid a vicious circle in which tighter liquidity conditions, lower asset values, impaired capital resources, reduced credit […]
Contingency planning for a global downturn
If you would like to read my article in this week’s ICB, on the importance of contingency planning, please click this link
Shell, BASF, ACC warn on US downturn
‘The sharp drop in housing starts and the developing credit crisis will flow into the cracker business’, according to Shell Chemical’s CEO Stacy Methvin. She added that ‘the housing crisis is more far-reaching than anyone anticipated’. Similarly, BASF is now more cautious about the potential impact of the US recession on its petchem business. Peter […]
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