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Chemicals and the Economy

Scenario planning key amid volatility

Russia’s invasion is a major wake-up call about the danger of assuming business will always be “as usual”. The window for investing in future growth is starting to close. As Hemingway warned in “Fiesta”, major changes (such as Net Zero) occur “gradually, then suddenly”.

Jackson Hole is a chance to prepare for a financial shock

The problems began with the supply chain crisis caused by the pandemic. Russia’s war in Ukraine then created a further challenge. And now we face the risk of famine as fertiliser costs become unaffordable. Central bankers at their annual Jackson Hole get-together should therefore focus on preparing for the arrival of a potential Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse, in the shape of a major financial crisis.

Prepare for the coming crisis

As the head of Germany’s Employers’ Associations warned last month: “We are facing the biggest crisis the post-war Federal Republic has ever had. We have to be honest and say: First of all, we will lose the prosperity that we have had for years”.

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