The UK economy set off into the Great Unknown on Wednesday, when premier Theresa May officially notified the European Union of the UK’s intention to leave (Brexit) by the end of March 2019. In response, the EU released its draft guidelines for the negotiations: “The first phase of the negotiations should aim to […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Global supply chains at risk as trade war threat rises
“May God bless the USA and God bless Boeing” was President Trump’s sign-off in his speech on Friday at Boeing’s South Carolina factory. Earlier he had told the workforce building the 787 Dreamliner: “This is our mantra: Buy American and hire America. We want products made in America, made by American hands. Our goal as a […]
“Business as usual” the least likely outcome for Europe
Europe is heading in to the Great Unknown, as Monday’s post highlighted. The UK, The Netherlands and France are not the only political uncertainties that we face. Elections are also due in Italy and in Germany. Italian elections. After premier Renzi’s referendum defeat last year, it seems like that Italy will hold elections this year, […]
Europe heads into the Great Unknown as UK prepares for Brexit; Dutch and French voters go to the polls
Next month sees the start of a process that could change all our lives. Whether we live in Europe, or outside it, the political decisions about to be made have the potential to impact every country in the world – for better or worse. And yet, nobody has yet begun to put together the various […]
The global economy’s best leading indicator forecasts a downturn
If you want to know what is happening to the global economy, the chemical industry will provide the answers. It has an excellent correlation with IMF data, and also benefits from the fact it has no “political bias”. It simply tells us what is happening in real-time in the world’s 3rd largest industry. The chart […]
The blog in 2016
2016 saw the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies begin to impact companies and markets. The blog’s readership has increased significantly as a a result, as shown in the chart above, with its visits now totaling nearly 500k. Its readership includes 197 countries and over 11k cities. Readers also remain very loyal, with […]
2016’s Word of the Year: “Impossible”
Nobody likes change, particularly on the scale that is taking place all around us today. Understandably, we prefer to live in a state of Denial. This is why “Impossible” is my Word of the Year for 2016. The main feature of the word is that it is a statement, and a very clear statement. People […]
Political risk rises as voters feel only the populists are listening
This week, the new UK premier, Theresa May, highlighted how the central banks have encouraged the populists’ rise: “We have to acknowledge some of the bad side-effects. People with assets have got richer, people without have not.” The problem, of course, goes wider than this. The continuing failure to recover from the 2008 Financial Crisis […]
If “Brexit means Brexit”, what does Brexit mean?
The summer is over, and the UK government now has the job of deciding its objectives for the Brexit negotiations. These, like all major negotiations, will no doubt be long and difficult. They will also inevitably create major uncertainty for companies, investors and individuals as they progress. I have personally led major negotiations in a […]
UK’s Brexit vote may lead to end of schoolboy politics
Until recently, the job description for UK (and most Western) politicians has been fairly simple – look good on television, and only say something when it has been approved by a focus group. The reward was the ability to jet off to important sounding meetings of the G7 and G20, and have agreeable dinners at […]