Japan has wasted trillions of yen with its failed stimulus programmes. Had it devoted even a tenth of this money to developing a proper Retraining programme for people in their 50s/60s, it wouldn’t now be facing a major debt and currency crisis. The rest of the Western world needs to rapidly learn from its mistake.
Chemicals and the Economy
The end of stimulus, and the growing importance of demographics, means the economy could face a major downturn
‘Business as usual’ has been a great strategy for the past 40 years. But nothing lasts forever. It has now – like the central banks’ stimulus policies – hit the inevitable brick wall.
Chart of the Year – Our Sentiment Index proved a great guide to the S&P 500 in 2022
Nobody knows how markets will develop. But past performance is the best guide that we have. This is why our Sentiment Index is my Chart of the year for 2022.
Break glass in case of emergency – the 2023 outlook for the economy
Please join me for my free ACS webinar on Thursday, December 15, 2022 @ 2-3pm ET.
Global economy set to go ex-growth as world population hits 8bn
Underlying growth has been slowing since 2000 as more people joined the Perennials generation. Now, the bursting of the central bank stimulus bubbles – combined with the impact of Russia’s invasion – will likely cause the global economy to go ex-growth.
‘The chemical industry is screaming “Recession”‘
The chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy and its message couldn’t be any clearer:
A severe global recession is imminent.
Interest rates break out of their 40-year downtrend – and start creating chaos in global markets
US inflation was last at 8.3% in January 1982. And then, the 10-year yield was 14.6. History may not be a perfect guide, but it is the best we have. So it might be worth planning for rates to go much higher than most “experts” expect, now that they have broken out of their downtrend.
The Sentiment Index continues to be a reliable guide to the S&P 500’s performance
Most commentators chose to ignore the warnings on inflation and recession provided by chemical industry data. As a result, they have been blindsided by the speed and scale of the S&P 500’s downturn. But the Sentiment Index has proved far more reliable.
Food costs and interest rates rise as energy and fertilizer supplies are hit by the invasion
It’s going to be a very difficult winter. Most of the world will be impacted as Europe bids up energy/food prices to keep its people warm and fed. And it would never have happened if policymakers had recognised the importance of geopolitics, energy markets and demographics.
Prepare for the coming crisis
As the head of Germany’s Employers’ Associations warned last month: “We are facing the biggest crisis the post-war Federal Republic has ever had. We have to be honest and say: First of all, we will lose the prosperity that we have had for years”.