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Chemicals and the Economy

Q2 results highlight continued uncertainty over outlook

The chemical industry continues to be the best leading indicator we have for the global economy. Whilst stock markets were continuing to move higher during H1, its depressed level of capacity utilisation was signalling that the economy was far more fragile than generally realised. Company results for Q2 reflect this concern. Of course some, tied […]

Sunday is ‘moment of truth’ for Eurozone and Greece

“We should not forget the historic nature of what is at stake. “Its about whether a country can leave the euro zone and what that means for the future of an incomplete and flawed European Monetary Union. “Its about whether there may soon be a failed state in southeastern Europe with all the geopolitical consequences […]

Greece introduces capital controls; IMF says it needs to default

This morning, Greece introduced capital controls.  People can only withdraw €60/day ($65) from their bank accounts.  The government has also called a referendum on Sunday, after Eurozone talks on a new bailout package collapsed. The key issue is that Greece will never be able to repay its debts.  These are currently estimated at €322bn ($365bn) […]

Deflation gains: China’s plastics market sees over-capacity

More and more commentators are beginning to recognise that deflation is becoming inevitable in many major economies: China’s producer prices fell -4.3% last month, and its consumer prices rose just 0.8% Eurozone consumer prices fell in December to -0.2%, and are likely to have fallen further in January US prices rose just 0.8% in December and are […]

Greece and the Eurozone head for showdown over debt issue

We all learnt one crucial lesson from Syriza’s victory in the Greek election last week – voters can halt the European Central Bank (ECB).  Or in other words, protest coalitions can trump elite consensus.  In places like Spain and France, this effect may not work through immediately, but it is being absorbed. Thus Greece and the Eurozone crisis […]

The great ‘Deflation Shock’ is coming closer

  The world is about to be hit by a demand shock equivalent to 1973’s supply shock.  Yet, astonishingly, most commentators remain so focused on central bank activity, that they have completely missed what is happening.  Here’s how it is playing out. You may remember the ‘The pH Report‘ forecast in early December that: “Oil prices […]

Political earthquake hits Europe in EU elections

A political earthquake hit Europe in the European Union elections on Sunday night: For the first time since the War, mainstream parties were beaten in major countries In France, the National Front won 25% of the vote, with conservatives 21% and ruling socialist party only 14% In the UK, the Independence Party (UKIP) won 28%, […]

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