China’s leaders have a lot to worry about. The purge of Bo Xilai has now been followed by news of his wife being suspected of murder. This makes the run-up to October’s leadership transition even more difficult. Only 3 months ago, Bo was being tipped by some to join the Politburo, and even to become […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s producers lose pricing power
China’s economy is slowing rather fast. That’s the only conclusion to be drawn from the above chart. It shows a major collapse in producer price inflation (PPI), from July’s 7.5% peak to just 2.7% in November. The decline from September’s 6.5% level has been particularly dramatic, with the index down nearly 2/3rds in just 2 […]
China’s power consumption hits new record
China’s growth in electricity consumption is a much better guide to its economic growth than the published GDP figures. This was confirmed by likely next premier, Li Keqiang. It has been a major reason for the blog’s long-standing focus on this key area. The problem with GDP is that it is a target for local […]
China’s auto market goes ex-growth
China’s auto market has gone ex-growth, as the above chart shows. Monthly sales in July (red square) were the 2nd lowest since July 2010. The problem is the continuing fall-out from the end of China’s great credit bubble. Inflation hit a new high of 6.5% in July. More importantly, food prices rose by 14.8%, up […]
China’s food price inflation hits 14.4% in June
Since Q4 2008, China has been creating one of the largest credit bubbles in history. First, it doubled bank lending to $1.4trn in 2009 (one third of GDP), and then maintained it close to this level. Secondly, it added a stimulus package worth another 13% of GDP ($580bn), focused on providing cheap electrical goods and […]
China’s inflation at new high, bank lending slows
The blog continues to worry about signs of a slowdown in China. Major commodity trader, Glencore, said this week “we see a pullback in China and it will continue“. This challenges the views of Dow CEO Andrew Liveris last month, and Rhodia CEO Jean-Pierre Clamadieu – who said last week he saw “no material signs […]
China’s empty shopping malls
The South China Mall opened nearly 6 years ago. Nearly 3 times the size of Minnesota’s vast Mall of America in the USA, it supposedly symbolised China’s arrival as a consumer power. But as this Australian TV video shows, the Mall today is virtually empty. As are numerous other shopping malls built more recently. Yet […]
China’s inflation out of control
China’s inflation hit 5.4% last month. As the chart above shows, it has more than doubled over the past year. And food prices jumped 11.7%. Clearly, inflation is now out of control, with the Ministry of Finance admitting the situation is “severe and hard to handle“. A sign of the scale of the problem is […]
China battles food and house price inflation
When China announced that inflation had reached 5.1% in November, the authorities insisted it was only a temporary peak. But this seems less likely today, with January’s inflation still at 4.9%. The surge in food prices is very worrying. They jumped 10.3%. And with a major drought underway in the North East, there is a […]
Boom/Gloom Index at a crossroad
The blog’s Boom/Gloom Index presents a fascinating picture this month. The main Index (blue column) remains strongly positive, in keeping with the solid performance of most stock markets. It confirms evidence from other sentiment indices that investors are optimistic about the outlook. But the Austerity index (red line) refuses to collapse. It is, of course, […]
Jump to page: