Markets stopped operating in their true role of providing price discovery sometime ago. Instead, they became dominated by the central banks, determined to prove their theory that increased asset values can stimulate sustained economic recovery. They, of course, have the firepower to bend markets to their will. Nobody else could have spent $16tn in this manner […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Global auto industry sales growth depends on China
Autos remain the world’s largest manufacturing industry, and the single biggest source of demand for chemicals and plastics. According to detailed analysis by the American Chemistry Council, each new US auto is worth $3,539 in terms of sales – and involves a wide range of products including antifreeze, plastic dashboards, bumpers and windows, as well as upholstery […]
Japan’s ageing population challenges hopes of economic growth
The blog’s new series on the likely demographic impact on the world’s Top 5 economies today moves across NEA to focus on Japan – the world’s 3rd largest economy ($6tn). As the chart shows: It has seen life expectancy (red column) increase by a third since 1950, to reach 82 years today At the same time, its […]
Benzene markets suggest BabyBoomer growth will not reappear
Benzene has always been one of the blog’s favourite leading indicators for the global economy. The reason is simple, in that it has been around a long time, and is now used in a very wide range of industries. So it provides us with a broad-based picture of the global economy. The chart above highlights another important […]
India’s onion harvest boosts auto sales: Japan’s sales gently decline
The blog’s pre-Budget Outlook review of the major auto markets concludes today with Japan and India. Together they are 10% of the global market. But their development is an excellent example of how reality can overtake the wishful thinking of policymakers: Japan (red line) is the larger market. It has lived through countless government stimulus […]
One in four Japanese now over 65 years
Japan’s new government has embarked on a desperate gamble to restore economic growth after 2 decades of decline. Unfortunately, it is doomed to fail. The chart from the Financial Times, explains why. And the reason is very simple: One in four Japanese are now over the age of 65 And this proportion is continuing to rise, […]
Japan’s 7% Nikkei index fall highlights risks ahead
We are now nearly at the end of May, and still there is no sign of a sustained recovery in demand. This mirrors the weakness seen in January and March – normally also very strong months. Now, unless seasonal patterns are overturned, demand will remain slow until September – when people return from holidays and […]
Japan waves another ‘magic wand’ to restart economic growth
Stock market investors in Japan are feeling very pleased. The Nikkei share index has risen 40% since new premier Abe was elected last year. And now the new governor of the Bank of Japan has confirmed he plans to wave a magic wand to restore economic growth and create inflation. He is not bothered that […]
Western stock markets in bubble-mode, again
The blog’s 6 monthly review of global stock markets highlights a very unusual pattern since global demand and chemical markets peaked on 29 April 2011, as the chart shows: • Markets in developed economies have powered ahead with Japan up 24%, the US S&P 500 up 14%, the UK up 8% and Germany up 6% […]
US, UK goverment bond yields follow Japan’s example
The arrival of the internet should make it easier to source key data from around the world. But instead, it seems to encourage Twitter-like behaviour, where everyone simply repeats what has already been said. How else to explain the almost universal view that government bond yields in countries such as the US and UK are […]
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