Acrylonitrile

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India has initiated an investigation into dumping of acetonitrile from China, Taiwan and Russia. The government was acting on a complaint filed by domestic producer Alkyl Amines Chemical Ltd, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) said in a notification of the probe dated 26 March. Other local producers Balaji Amines Ltd and Jindal Specialty Chemicals have also supported the ADD application. The period under investigation will cover the 12 months from 1 October 2022 to 30 September 2023, while the injury examination period will cover three financial years – from April 2020 to March 2023. Alkyl Amines has claimed that “because of the dumped imports from the subject countries, the production and capacity utilization of the domestic industry are significantly below its installed capacity”. Acetonitrile is a byproduct of the acrylonitrile (ACN) production process. It is used to make pharmaceuticals, perfumes, rubber products, pesticides, batteries, among others.

01-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The administration of US President Joe Biden is proposing a wave of regulations before its term ends in 2025, many of which will increase costs for chemical companies in the US and persist even if the nation elects a new president later this year. The prospect of such consequential policies comes as delegates head into this year's International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). Changes to the Clean Waters Act, the Risk Management Program (RMP) and the Hazard Communication Standard are among the most consequential policies being considered by US regulators. Electric vehicles (EVs) could receive more support from federal and state governments. This would increase demand for plastics used in EVs while discouraging refiners from making further investments, which could limit US production of benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX). The failure of Congress to re-authorize the nation's chemical site security program could spell its end. REGULATORY PUSH DURING ELECTION YEARSuch a regulatory push by the Biden administration was flagged last year by the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD), the new name for the National Association of Chemical Distributors (NACD). The group was not crying wolf. The next nine months could rank among the worst for the chemical industry in terms of regulatory change and potential issues, said Eric Byer, president of the ACD. "Whatever it's going to be, it will come done fairly aggressively." The Biden administration has proposed several consequential policies. For the Clean Water Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing new requirements, which will require chemical producers and other companies to develop plans to address the worst possible discharge from their plants. The ACD warned that the new requirement would raise compliance costs while doing little to reduce the already small number of discharges by plants. The final rule is scheduled to be published in April 2024. For the RMP, changes could require chemical companies to share information that has been off limits since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The concern is that the information will fall into the wrong hands, while significantly increasing costs to comply with the new requirements, according to the ACD. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is introducing changes to its Hazard Communication Standard that could create more burdens for companies. The ACD warned that some of the changes will increase costs without providing a commensurate improvement in safety. The EPA has started the multiyear process that, under the regulator's current whole-chemical approach, will lead to restrictions imposed on vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), acrylonitrile (ACN) and aniline, a chemical used to make methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). This is being done through the nation's main chemical safety program, known as the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). MORE POLICIES PROPOSED FOR EVsThe Biden administration is proposing additional polices to encourage the adoption of EVs. For chemical producers, more EVs would increase demand for plastics, resins and thermal management fluids that are designed to meet the material challenges of these automobiles. At the same time, the push towards EVs could limit sales of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs), lowering demand for gasoline and diesel. Refiners could decide to shut down and repurpose their complexes if they expect demand for their main products will stop growing or decline. That would lower production of aromatics and other refinery chemicals and refined products. The Biden administration is moving on three fronts to encourage EV sales. The EPA is expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II), which would phase out the sale of ICE-based vehicles to 2035. If the EPA grants California's request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. The EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal would impose stricter standards on tail pipe emissions. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) is proposing stricter efficiency standards under its Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. The AFPM opposes these measures. It said the EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal and DOT's new CAFE standards are so demanding, it would force automobile companies to produce a lot more EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles to meet the more ambitious requirements. LAX OVERSIGHT OF SHIPPING RATES IN WAKE OF HOUTHISThe ACD raised concerns that the US is not doing enough to address the possibility that shipping rates and delays have increased beyond what could be justified by the disruptions caused by the drought in Panama and by the Houthi attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal. The ACD accepts that costs will rise, but it expressed concerns that shipping companies could be taking advantage of the situation by charging excessive rates on routes unaffected by the disruptions. These include routes from India and China to the western coast of the US, Byer said. "Why are you jacking up the price two or threefold?" LABOR NEGOTIATIONS FOR US EAST COASTThe work contract will expire this year for dockworkers and ports along the East Coast of the US. Byer warned of a possible strike if the talks become too contentious. On the West Coast, dockworkers and ports reached an agreement on a six-year work contract. CFATS ON LIFE SUPPORTByer expressed concerns about the future of the main chemical-site security program, called the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS). CFATS is overseen by the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which is under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). CISA lost authority to implement CFATS on 28 July 2023, when a bill that would have re-authorized it was blocked from going to a vote in the Senate. Without CFATS, other federal and state agencies could create their own chemical-site security regulations. This process has already started in the US state of Nebraska, where State Senator Eliot Bostar introduced LB1048. Other nearby states in the plains could introduce similar bills, because they tend to follow each other's lead, Byer said. Many of these state legislatures should wrap up sessions in the next couple of months, so lawmakers still have time to propose chemical-site security bills. The ACD is most concerned about larger states creating chemical-site security programs, such as California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. SENATE RAIL BILL REMAINS PENDINGA Senate rail safety bill has been pending for more than a year after a bipartisan group of legislators introduced it following the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. Congress has about 10 months to approve the bill before it lapses, Byer said. For bills in general, action during an election year could happen around the Memorial Day holiday in May, the 4 July recess, the August recess or before the end of September. After September, legislators will be focused on campaigning for the 5 November election. TEXAS BRINGS BACK TAX BREAKS FOR INDUSTRIAL PROJECTSTexas has revived a program that granted tax breaks to new chemical plants and other large industrial projects. The new program is called the Texas Jobs and Security Act, and it replaced the lapsed Chapter 313 School Value Limitation Agreement. The old program was popular with chemical companies, and their applications were among the first public disclosures of their expansion plans. The new program has already attracted applicants. Summit Next Gen is considering a plant that would convert 450 million gal/year of ethanol into 256 million gal/year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Hosted by the AFPM, the IPC takes place on March 24-26. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a federal building. Image by Lucky-photographer

18-Mar-2024

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Styrenix Performance Materials (SPM) expects to begin operations at its expanded acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polystyrene (PS) capacities at Dahej and Nandesari in the western Gujarat state before 2028, a company source said on Friday. SPM plans to invest Rs6.5bn ($78m) on the expansion projects. Its ABS capacity will grow to 210,000 tonnes/year over the next four years, from 85,000 tonnes/year currently; while its PS capacity will be raised to 150,000 tonnes/year over the next three years from the current 66,000 tonnes/year, based on the plan released in October 2023. Funding the brownfield expansions will be through a mix of internal accruals and debt, SPM said. “The expansion will be done in a phased manner and capacity will be increased gradually over the next few years,” the company source said. The expansion of production capacities will help SPM meet increasing domestic demand for ABS and PS, he sai. “We expect to see robust growth in in our existing markets like automobiles, household appliances, medical devices, electronics, [among others],” the source said. SPM is formerly known as INEOS Styrolution India. It was renamed in January 2023 after INEOS Styrolution sold its entire stake in the company to Shiva Performance Material in August 2022. ($1 = Rs83)

16-Feb-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 9 February 2024. India methanol gains on lower Iran volumes amid plant outagesBy Keven Zhang 09-Feb-24 14:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indian methanol spot market continued to be driven by supply outages in Iran, with a trade concluded higher than the previous week. INSIGHT: Asia benzene remains profitable supported by demand in 2024 By Jenny Yi 08-Feb-24 22:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia benzene supply growth will moderate in 2024 compared with last year, which saw the the peak of the latest capacity expansion cycle. The downstream market still maintains rapid capacity growth, however, which exceeds the supply growth rate of benzene. Asia adipic acid struggles to keep up with cost pressure ahead of holidays By Josh Quah 08-Feb-24 13:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Adipic acid (ADA) prices in Asia have been on a general upward trend since around mid-December 2023 for China-origin cargoes. INSIGHT: Asia ABS supply length will intensify amid China expansions By May Hu 08-Feb-24 10:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ABS (acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) capacity growth in Asia peaked in 2023 and will be sustained in 2024 on massive new capacities coming on stream in China. China petrochemical demand may stay muted post-holiday By Yvonne Shi 07-Feb-24 15:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Low market confidence has kept petrochemical restocking in China tepid before the Lunar New Year holiday, with players refraining from building up inventory given uncertain demand recovery in March. China Jan petrochemical markets gain on restocking; Feb holidays to hit demand By Yvonne Shi 06-Feb-24 14:58 SINGAPORE(ICIS)–China’s domestic petrochemical markets gained in end-January on the back firm crude prices and some restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, with demand in February likely to weaken. Asia titanium dioxide spot market may be fuelled by bullish sentiment By Joson Ng 05-Feb-24 16:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The titanium dioxide (TiO2) spot market in Asia is likely to see supply factors driving the market in February. India hikes infrastructure capex for fourth year; Rs11.1tr set for 2024-25 By Priya Jestin 05-Feb-24 14:49 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s government has announced plans to increase its capital expenditure on infrastructure projects to rupees (Rs) 11.1trn ($134bn) in its interim budget for 2024-2025, up 11% from the previous fiscal year, boosting the funds available for the sector for the fourth consecutive year.

13-Feb-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Trinseo expects another quarterly net loss in the first quarter after reporting one on Monday for its fourth-quarter results. The company has already shutdown some manufacturing capacity, and the company will continue to assess whether it should do more to "increase our manufacturing network flexibility", said Frank Bozich, CEO. Any such actions would allow the company to take advantage of cost differences among different regions while also improving profitability, lowering capital expenditures and optimizing working capital, Bozich said. At the same time, the moves would allow Trinseo to continue investing in higher-value products as well as sustainable ones. The following table compares the company's Q1 guidance to its Q4 and Q1 performance during 2023. Figures are in millions of dollars. Q1 '24 Q4 '23 Q1 '23 Net loss from continuing operations 77-67 265 49 Adjusted EBITDA 40-50 20 36 Source: Trinseo “The unprecedented drop in demand we saw starting in the third quarter of 2022 has persisted, and a great deal of macroeconomic uncertainty remains," Bozich said. “We are seeing stronger order loads to begin the year following the challenges we faced in the fourth quarter, and therefore, we expect significantly higher sequential profitability in the first quarter of 2024," he said. However, the first quarter should be the one with the lowest profitability because volumes are typically lower during that time of the year and because of plant turnaounds, Trinseo said. Also, the timing of newly awarded business will contribute to lower profitability. For all of 2024, Trinseo expects a similar constrained demand environment to 2023. Shares of Trinseo rose by 1.63% in afterhours trading. Q4 PERFORMANCEThe following table shows Trinseo's Q4 performance. Figures are in millions of dollars. Q4 23 Q4 22 % Change Net sales 837.5 975.2 -14.1% Cost of sales 817.2 978.4 -16.5% Gross profit 20.3 -3.2 – Net loss * 265.0 364.3 -27.3% Adjusted EBITDA 20.2 6.3 – *from continuing operations Source: Trinseo Trinseo makes styrenics and engineered materials. Thumbnail shows spoons made of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), one of the resins made by Trinseo. Image by ICIS.

12-Feb-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's benzene prices trended upwards because of crude gains as well some pre-Lunar New Year restocking. Downstream styrene (SM) producers however, struggled with higher costs and low demand from sectors such as polystyrene (PS), expandable polystyrene (EPS) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS). In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Angeline Soh and Luffy Wu discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia. Benzene Feb cargoes sold out from pre-LNY stocking up, US demand as plants shut from winter storm Demand for March cargoes buoyed; buyers beyond Asia worried about tightened supply with upcoming derivative additions in China Asian styrene market players struggling with high costs but low demand Regional styrene exporters eyeing long-haul opportunities to Europe

31-Jan-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Petrochemical markets in Asia are showing a mixed trend ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, with some product prices rising on a combination of pre-holiday restocking and supply constraints despite general weakness in underlying demand. Red Sea crisis weighs on business decisions amid rising freight costs Pre-holiday restocking muted in most markets Demand recovery post holiday uncertain Prevailing concerns about the global economic outlook, compounded by rising freight costs and supply chain issues continue to weigh on sentiment. In China’s domestic market, pre-holiday restocking has been muted overall as downstream buyers fret over high prices of some products. The Lunar New Year, which falls on 10 February, is celebrated in most parts of northeast and southeast Asia. China will be on holiday for a full week on 10-17 February. COST PRESSURES DRIVE GAINS Some markets in Asia are experiencing an uptick in activity ahead of the holiday amid tight supply conditions. For ethyl acetate (etac), spot negotiations have surged along with market activity as end-users stock up on feedstock. The demand spike, particularly in northeast and southeast Asia, was triggered by concerns over limited vessel space and higher freight costs which were causing delays in cargo deliveries. “The tightness of vessel [availability] becomes a common problem for liquid chemicals at the moment,” said a regional-based market source. In the benzene market, buyers have been restocking throughout January, with a notable increase in demand compared with the previous year, ICIS analyst Jenny Yi said. Supply in Asia is expected to be stable amid limited planned turnarounds in the region in the first quarter, Yi said. In addition, the arbitrage window between Asia and the US has opened given reduced production in North America caused by prevailing frigid temperatures, she added. In the isocyanates market, demand is strong in India as downstream polyurethane (PU) producers are restocking for methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and toluene diisocyanate (TDI to gear up for peak production season in the first few months of the new year. Import prices are bolstered by tight northeast Asian supply, with major Chinese producers offline for turnarounds. However, post-Lunar New Year demand remains uncertain, particularly in China and southeast Asia, as downstream PU sector recovery is sluggish. For polyols, import prices in southeast Asia and India are rising, tracking upstream propylene oxide (PO) gains. India’s domestic and import prices for polyols are rising on a combination of strong demand and high freight costs. Southeast Asia's market, on the other hand, is quieter but prices were being supported by higher feedstock cost. Adjusting polyols prices to match upstream costs is challenging due to weak downstream demand. In the fatty alcohols market, Chinese buyers have secured their needs until March, leaving Indian buyers more active in the market. “We sell two or three months forward on a CIF [cost, insurance & freight] basis … and the sudden increase in ocean freight will definitely affect our margins,” an oleochemicals trader said. HIGH PRICES DAMPEN DEMAND; SUPPLY TIGHT FOR SOME MARKETS Post-Lunar New Year recovery in demand is uncertain, with little optimism for significant improvement. For methanol, domestic activity in China was tepid with downstream factories likely to shut weeks ahead of the holiday, while those seeking cargoes face higher prices given low availability of supply in the market. The country’s methanol imports in January plunged month on month with plants in the Middle East running at reduced rates during the month. In the plasticizers market, spot import prices in Asia were dragged down by upstream losses and weak buying momentum. Based on ICIS’ Plasticizers forecast, prices are expected to fall in February as the market activity slows down during the Lunar New Year holiday. For 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH), import prices in east Asia were stable amid limited discussions due to a lack of available spot material. Downstream diisononyl phthalate (DINP) spot market is having some support from limited supply of feedstock isononyl alcohol (INA). INA cargo movement from Europe to Asia is being affected by ongoing logistics issues in the Red Sea. WEAK DOWNSTREAM MARKETS TO PERSIST For monoethylene glycol (MEG), slowing textile demand ahead of the Lunar New Year could halt the market uptrend. “Limited restocking activities are seen as buyers and end-users prefer not building high stocks amid concerns on the demand recovery after the holiday. As you know, the global economic outlook seems not rosy,” a regional trader said. In the recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) and recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets, demand for pellets has been tepid as downstream plants still working through backlogs from last year's purchases. The recycled polymers market has generally struggled throughout 2023, with trade impacted by poor economics. In the PE market, initial spot February import offers in southeast Asia were firmer this week as Middle East suppliers flagged reduced spot allocation and low stocks. Middle East offers to Vietnam – which will celebrate the Lunar New Year from 8-14 February – spiked due to reduced availability of spot export cargoes. The Red Sea crisis has also likely affected some shipments from Saudi Arabia, but this could not be confirmed with the producers. Supporting PE demand is downstream application in packaging, which accounts for 60% of total consumption of the material. “The outlook for packaging is expected to be positive given the anticipation of holiday demand. However, downstream demand destruction in the industry is forecast at 15-20% lower year to date,” ICIS analyst Jincy Varghese said. For acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR), China’s import prices have softened this week, as more local end-users retreated to wind down and prepare for the holidays. “The pre-holiday restocking exercise ended just barely weeks after it started,” a regional NBR maker said, adding that “it was so lame, compared to the previous years”. Insight article by Nurluqman Suratman With contributions from Melanie Wee, Julia Tan, Izham Ahmad, Helen Yan, Judith Wang, Shannen Ng, Keven Zhang, Arianne Perez and Ai Teng Lim Thumbnail image: China's 2024 Year of the Dragon celebrations preparations in Beijing – 25 Jan 2024  (WU HAO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

26-Jan-2024

NEW YORK (ICIS)–US regulatory policies are proliferating in a power vacuum and holding the chemical industry back, adding roadblocks to the government’s own sustainability agenda, said the CEO of the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The US chemical industry enjoys major structural advantages – a positive tax climate, energy abundance and over $1 trillion in stimulus from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the CHIPS and Science Act (semiconductors) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, he said. “There are tremendous opportunities for us. However, some government policies being put forth are holding us back – for example, in permitting and regulatory overreach. And then throw in some overzealous billionaires on top of that and we have a toxic cocktail,” said ACC CEO Chris Jahn at a meeting of the Societe de Chimie Industrielle in New York. The trade group is not opposed to regulation itself but is focused on “smart regulation”, he added. REGULATORS FILL VACUUM LEFT BY CONGRESSWith a highly divided and dysfunctional Congress that “does not legislate often anymore”, there has been an explosion of regulatory activity. In the last 20 years, the number of regulations on the chemical industry has roughly doubled, he pointed out. “Congress leaves a vacuum, regulators fill it,” said Jahn, who added that regulatory burdens have increased across all sectors, from manufacturing to energy to banking. Tracking regulatory activity under each of the last three Presidents from Inauguration Day to 12 May in the third year of their first term (12 May 2023 for Biden), the costs associated with final rules implemented were $363.6 billion under Biden, far outpacing the $6.0 billion under Trump and $213.3 billion under Obama, according to the ACC using government figures. “Specifically for the US chemical industry, there are 13 regulations in the queue right now with a cost to the economy of $7 billion annually, according to the administration’s own numbers,” said Jahn. “That has the potential, if this goes forward, of limiting access to essential materials… This can impact inflation and economic growth, and perhaps more importantly, impact our ability to compete with China,” said Jahn. “The US is now the second largest chemical producer in the world, but China is three times bigger. And so this helps our competitors overseas if we continue down this path,” he added. ACC CAMPAIGN TO ‘CONNECT THE DOTS’The ACC aims to advance its campaign “Chemistry Creates, America Competes” in this election year, targeting 12 battleground states. The focus is to educate regulators and legislators on just how vital the industry is to the government’s key initiatives, he noted. “We are in the ‘connecting the dots’ business. What I mean by that is that there is not a single person at EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), at OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration), at Commerce who’s really worried about the impact of these regulations,” said Jahn. “They’re so narrowly focused on looking at the specific chemical, the specific air issue, the specific water issue, that they do not think at all about the real world impact of their actions,” he added. FIVE CHEMISTRIES UNDER THREATAs an example, the EPA is looking to restrict or ban five chemistries that go into the manufacture of automobiles and semiconductors, he pointed out. Back in mid-December, the EPA announced that it had started the 12-month prioritization process to determine whether vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), acrylonitrile (ACN), aniline and two other chemicals should be designated as high priority substances. Jahn also pointed to the EPA in April 2023 proposing to tighten standards for chemical plants producing ethylene oxide (EO), chloroprene, benzene, butadiene (BD), ethylene dichloride (EDC) and VCM. EO is used to sterilize over 20 billion pieces of medical equipment per year, he said. “This matters because regulations, once they’re in place, typically do not go away. This can create barriers to entry for small firms and make it harder for larger firms to do business. But really it’s going to kill innovation that would help us tackle the world’s biggest challenges,” said Jahn. For the five chemicals under review, the process will take years with no decision in the next 2-4 years, he said. “The good thing for us is that we’ve learned what the EPA is looking for – the data, the information they need. We have a better feel for what can be helpful to them in the process, and they’ve learned to, so maybe that accelerates things a little bit. But this will be years and years of evaluation before any decision is made,” said Jahn. UP AGAINST BEYOND PETROCHEMICALSThe ACC is going up against a number of groups being funded by Beyond Petrochemicals, a group launched in September 2022 with $85 million in funding from former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s philanthropic foundation that aims to block the expansion of more than 120 proposed petrochemical and plastics projects concentrated in Louisiana, Texas and the Ohio River Valley, and work to establish stricter rules for existing plants. “If Mayor Bloomberg really cared about climate and really wanted to do something about that, we would make more [chemicals] in the US – not less. We are cleaner than anywhere else in the world and more efficient,” said Jahn, who also pointed out that Beyond Petrochemicals is also against advanced or chemical recycling of plastics. In an October 2023 report by Beyond Petrochemicals and International Pollutants Elimination Network (IPEN), they called chemical recycling a “dangerous deception” that in addition to decades of failure, produces large quantities of hazardous waste, releases toxic air pollution, threatens environmental justice and contributes to climate change. “What [Beyond Petrochemicals] is doing is giving this money to local groups to make it appear as if it is a grassroots effort – that these people are coming out of the woodwork and trying to address this on a local basis. These are hand-to-mouth organizations that he is now turbocharging with his money to drive his agenda,” said Jahn. The ACC is countering this with its “Chemistry Creates, America Competes” campaign launched in September 2023. “So far. I’d like to think we’ve been very successful. This Bloomberg effort has been going on for over a year, and not one single member of the ACC has had a permit impacted by their initiative,” said Jahn. The ACC aims to work with the administration and the EPA to partner on “smart regulations”. “We don’t have to ban everything, we don’t have to regulate to zero. We can do things to protect the environment but also produce the materials we need in the US,” said Jahn. The ACC plans to activate people in 12 key battleground states that will determine the next presidency, and run political advertising campaigns to push back against over-regulation. EU DE-INDUSTRIALIZATIONThe ACC CEO pointed to the EU and the de-industrialization taking place there as a result of higher energy costs and increasing regulations as a cautionary tale. “They have done this to themselves. They have driven up their cost of energy, driven [down chemical production] and that’s not coming back,” said Jahn. “We’ve seen how this movie ends, so we have to make sure we don’t go down that track. If we want to make more things in this country rather than in China and avoid the fate of Europe, we need a more thoughtful approach,” he added. Even if there is a change in government after the presidential election in November, there will still be policy risk, the ACC CEO said. “For example, if Trump were to win, you would just see the pressure we face in Washington just go to the state level. We’re still going to have those policy challenges,” said Jahn. Focus article by Joseph Chang Thumbnail shows red tape, a symbol of excessive bureaucracy and regulations. Image by Shutterstock. 

19-Jan-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the '24 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news throughout December and January. Click on a headline to read the full story. OUTLOOK '24: US economy poised for soft landing – will chemicals see a restocking bump? A year ago, just about every economist called for a US recession, and for good reason. Inflation was out of control, interest rates were headed higher and growth was slowing dramatically. But 2023 was a year of resilience, driven by the strong labor market and US consumer. OUTLOOK '24: US ABS, PC demand weakness lingers The 1.5-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) markets may bottom out in 2024. OUTLOOK '24: US BDO starts new year amid weak derivative demand US 1,4 butanediol  (BDO) is set to start 2024 after a year of suppressed demand and five straight quarters of contract price declines. OUTLOOK ’24: Global oversupply to pressure PE margins, US to remain advantaged The global polyethylene (PE) industry will continue to face a significant supply overhang in 2024, as recent capacity additions have well exceeded demand growth. Demand from emerging Asian economies, especially, has failed to keep pace with expectations, although most major global PE markets faced recessionary or near recessionary conditions in 2023. OUTLOOK '24: Lat Am PE to remain oversupplied, demand recovery pushed back Polyethylene (PE) markets in Latin America are set to continue being oversupplied in 2024 while demand is expected to grow at a slower rate than expected. OUTLOOK ’24: Demand likely to be lukewarm for US IPA, MEK amid weak housing sector Demand for methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA) is likely to be lukewarm amid a soft housing construction market and with lower GDP growth forecasts, but with destocking largely over, some restocking could be forthcoming. OUTLOOK ’24: US PP margins to face pressure amid global oversupply US polypropylene (PP) margins are likely to face pressure in 2024 as a global oversupply in the PP industry is likely to keep pricing and margins depressed globally. According to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database, global PP capacity has increased by 26.1% over the past five years while PP demand rose by 15.2% over the same time period, resulting in a significant supply overhang. OUTLOOK '24: Lat Am’s PP demand to remain sluggish, imports to keep rising Demand for polypropylene (PP) in Latin America is unlikely to recover in the first half of 2024, with market participants expecting demand to be low in the first quarter. OUTLOOK '24: US acrylonitrile demand weakness to continue The two-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well into 2024. OUTLOOK '24: US chem tanker market tight into H1; headwinds from Panama drought, Middle East tensions The US liquid chemical tanker shipping market is expected to remain tight into the first half of the year, container rates are likely to be steady at near-pre-pandemic levels, and drought conditions in Panama and geopolitical unrest in the Middle East are likely to create additional headwinds for shippers in the coming year. OUTLOOK '24: US benzene to face softness in derivative demand; lowered crude oil forecasts US benzene is experiencing soft demand in Q4 '23, as derivative demand remains weak. OUTLOOK '24: US toluene, MX demand and premiums over RBOB to remain strong US toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) demand is expected to remain strong in 2024 due to a combination of supply shortages and ongoing strength in octane demand. OUTLOOK ’24: US PX consumption could improve in Q2 2024 on bottle-grade PET summer demand US paraxylene (PX) consumption will likely remain poor through Q1 of 2024, however, the market is expected to experience an uptick in consumption in Q2 as downstream bottle-grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prepares for the peak summer season. OUTLOOK ’24: Melamine restocking may take place in H1 depending on the US economy performance The just-in-time purchasing strategy implemented this year caused the ICIS market prices for US melamine contracts to decline in the first and second quarters, before stabilizing in the third quarter due to a rollover. OUTLOOK '24: Chem shares start new year on high note US-listed shares of chemical companies will start the new year on a high note after rallying in the final weeks of 2023 with the rest of the nation's stock market on the expectations that inflation is getting under control and that the Federal Reserve could start lowering interest rates. OUTLOOK ’24: US ethylene market to navigate challenging start to new year The US ethylene market is expected to remain long throughout the first half of 2024, facing headwinds from weak demand, ample supply and a sluggish economy. While unit maintenance will tighten supply some, significant improvement in supply/demand is not anticipated until at least the second half of next year. OUTLOOK '24: Soft housing market to weigh on US etac demand Demand for US ethyl acetate (etac) in 2024 could face headwinds from a slow residential construction market, but steady demand from adhesives, packaging, and printing inks could be enough to maintain a floor. OUTLOOK '24: US R-PET market split by impact of imports, despite ratable consumer goods PCR content progress Despite the beginning of a new year, the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market is bracing for a continuation of lackluster demand, responding to the pressure from global economic weakness and increasing import competition. OUTLOOK '24: US epoxy resins at critical point as weak demand erodes margins US epoxy resins players are turning their attention to 2024 with hope that overall demand will improve, but most are unable to point to any factors that can drive growth. OUTLOOK '24: Feedstock and demand headwinds weighing on US MMA US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are wondering how feedstocks and demand will shape up going into 2024, but sentiment is not particularly positive. OUTLOOK ’24: US propylene market unsettled on tight supply The US propylene market faces supply constraints entering the new year that threaten to keep prices volatile. But demand is expected to continue to be tepid, which will add some stability to the tight market. OUTLOOK '24: After lackluster 2023, US glycol ethers, butac demand may benefit from potential rate cuts Both US butyl acetate (butac) and glycol ethers have experienced lukewarm demand in 2023 due to headwinds facing key end-use markets. OUTLOOK '24: US acrylate demand expected to face more favorable conditions After facing soft demand for much of 2023, US glacial acrylic acid (GAA) and acrylate esters prices rose following a Q4 increase in propylene prices. Though demand remains lackluster in December, it could be gradually boosted in 2024. OUTLOOK '24: US aromatic, aliphatic solvents sentiment moderately optimistic In line with a somewhat tepid view a year ago, the outlook for US aromatic and aliphatic solvents for H1 2024 is guardedly optimistic. OUTLOOK ’24: US PS demand likely to remain subdued in 2024 Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to remain subdued into the next year amid expectations of another year of sluggish GDP growth along with interpolymer substitution pressures. OUTLOOK '24: Lat Am PS pressured by slow manufacturing, single-use plastics regulations The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market will continue to face challenges in 2024 as manufacturing in most countries remains slow and regulations against single-use plastics increase. OUTLOOK '24: US EPS market to face continued weakness in new year The outlook for expandable polystyrene (EPS) in the new year is weak, at least in first half of the year, as the same issues that challenged the market in 2023 will continue. OUTLOOK '24: US nylon demand weak amid manufacturing contraction Demand decline in US nylon markets which started in Q3, 2022 will continue in H1 2024. ICIS economists are forecasting a soft landing of US economy with recovery starting in H2 2024. OUTLOOK '24: US caustic soda starts New Year with sentiment of slimmer demand, price increase nominations US liquid caustic soda starts 2024 with producers taking action to address the threat of oversupply amid weak demand and price declines. OUTLOOK ’24: Latin America caustic soda market focusing on new initiatives in H1 Latin American countries are poised to sustain a strong dependence on exports from the United States in H1. Anticipating a challenging domestic market, US producers plan to prioritize exports in 2024 based on the prevailing economic outlook. OUTLOOK '24: US acetic acid, VAM supply tightness to improve in H1 US acetic acid and derivative vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply remains limited, but the tightness should continue to improve throughout H1. OUTLOOK ’24: US styrene expected to face continued headwinds The US styrene market is expected to continue to see weak demand and sufficient supply into the new year and will generally follow current macroeconomic trends. OUTLOOK ‘24: After slow 2023, US TiO2 demand demand hinges on rate cuts North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand has been weak for much of the past year, with a soft housing market amid elevated interest rates. However, the US Federal Reserve has recently signaled there could be multiple rate cuts in 2024, which could boost demand for key consumer sectors involving paints and coatings. OUTLOOK '24: US soda ash sees growing supply, slower demand and lower contract prices US soda ash enters 2024 with hopes of a rebalancing of supply and demand and a more stable market and lower prices following three years of supply and demand surges and retreats and record price increases for the once staid and mature commodity. OUTLOOK '24: Feedstock concerns, margin compression to underpin US fatty acids, alcohols markets Feedstock concerns and margin compression will continue to underpin US fatty acids and fatty alcohols markets in 2024 as demand headwinds persist in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK '24: US phenol demand to stay weak, pressuring acetone supply US phenol demand will likely remain weak and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2024 as no major factors are evident that could drive growth. OUTLOOK ’24: US polyurethane demand outlook to remain subdued into 2024 Demand for polyurethane systems in the US is expected to remain subdued moving into the new year as the US and global economies are expected to continue to struggle with macroeconomic headwinds. OUTLOOK '24: US HCl heads into 2024 with slowing oilfield demand and gloomy economic outlook US hydrochloric acid (HCl) ends 2023 with recent slimmer supply and slightly firming prices, but enters 2024 in a more balanced market with wavering demand. OUTLOOK '24: After weak demand for much of '23, US MPG pressured by rising feedstocks After declining for much of the past year, mono propylene glycol (MPG) contract prices have risen in consecutive months, with several rounds of separate price increase nominations emerging in Q4 ‘23. OUTLOOK '24: US base oils markets look for return of demand US base oils markets appear poised for ample supplies with buyers continued focus on just-in-time procurement as trade flows adjust to new legislation in 2024. OUTLOOK ’24: US paraffin wax market may continue to face demand challenges along with ample supply in H1 2024 A certain amount of demand and feedstock cost volatility could cause some price fluctuations for US slack wax in H1 2024. OUTLOOK '24: US fuels demand to soften amid poor macroeconomic conditions US demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is expected to fall in 2024 due to the likelihood of recessionary economic conditions. OUTLOOK '24: Ample supply of US fuel, industrial ethanol expected in H1 on increased production US fuel and industrial ethanol markets are likely to be well supplied in 2024 on increased production and record corn crops, with pricing likely to be determined based on upstream costs and economic conditions. OUTLOOK ’24: Brazil fuel parity fluctuating in H1 on crude oil price trend Brazil expectations point to a slight decline in hydrous ethanol prices during the first half, aiming to boost competition with gasoline, as the parity remains more favorable to biofuel in Q4. OUTLOOK ’24: LatAm petchems to remain at mercy of China amid slowing economies Latin American petrochemicals are to remain ‘price takers’ in the global market and dependent on China’s overcapacities and that country’s success in reviving its own manufacturing sectors. OUTLOOK '24: INSIGHT: Regulatory surge, CFATS, EV incentives in play for US chems In 2024, the US chemical industry could see an attempt to revive the industry's main anti-terrorism program, an attempt at further permit reform and a last-ditch effort by the president to push through regulations before the elections in November. OUTLOOK '24: US BD import needs decrease as demand shifts, SBR stays weak The US is expected to have limited need for imported butadiene (BD) in 2024 and exports to Asia are likely to continue, especially if demand for derivatives such as styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) remains weak. OUTLOOK '24: US R-PE battles direct and indirect demand destruction from long virgin PE market The US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) market braces for continued weakness in order volumes across both sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive demand for both post-consumer and post-industrial recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE) in 2024. OUTLOOK '24: US MA cautiously pessimistic amid lackluster demand US maleic anhydride (MA) is cautiously pessimistic going into 2024 amid lackluster demand and economic uncertainty. OUTLOOK '24: US methanol discounts reach unprecedented levels US methanol supply is expected to remain ample into the new year as the demand side remains seasonally slower. OUTLOOK ’24: Low water levels on Mississippi River unlikely to negatively impact PA, OX supply Low water levels along the Mississippi River are unlikely to negatively impact phthalic anhydride (PA) and orthoxylene (OX) supply due to low demand as a result of seasonality, coupled with economic headwinds, including elevated interest and mortgage rates, as well as lingering high inflation. OUTLOOK ’24: US plasticizers stay focused despite varying demand in H1 The market outlook for plasticizers in H1 2024 remains somewhat gloomy due to the ongoing effects of inflation and interest rates in industries in the niches of electronics, construction, automotive, and packaging. OUTLOOK '24: US PVC starts new year with bullish stance, pending capacity expansions US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) starts the new year with an abrupt exit from one of the worst years for demand and value preservation since the credit market wreckage of 2009. OUTLOOK ’24: Latin America PVC production exceeding local demand in H1 The complete recovery of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand in Latin America is not anticipated in the first half of 2024. OUTLOOK '24: US feedstocks to face headwinds Overall demand for US feedstocks is relatively low heading into 2024 amid falling ethane demand and potential macroeconomic headwinds. OUTLOOK '24: US glycerine supplies to remain ample in H1 despite mixed biofuels landscape US glycerine supplies are largely expected to remain ample in H1 2024, despite a structural decrease in installed US biodiesel capacity, as sustained strong biodiesel production in Indonesia and lackluster demand in China threaten to once again flood the US with excess supplies from southeast Asia. OUTLOOK ’24: US EG export volumes, production rates could be negatively impacted by Panama Canal backlog US ethylene glycol (EG) exports and production rates could be negatively impacted by the disruptions at the Panama Canal. Recently, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) announced it would slash the number of vessels allowed to transit the waterway daily through 1 February 2024, as recent drought persists. OUTLOOK ’24: PET, PTA demand could pick up in Q2 ahead of peak summer season Bottle grade US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) demand could pick up in the second quarter of 2024 as the market expects to begin preparing for peak bottled beverage season during the summer months. OUTLOOK ’24: Weather, Asia offers in H1 continue to have direct impact on PET prices in Latin America Increased import tariffs and economic uncertainties persist in influencing the quantities of PET exported from Asia to Latin America in 2023 and this trend will continue in 2024. Asia will remain committed to the global market to align with supply and demand dynamics, with ample materials accessible in H1, predominantly directed towards the west coast of South America. Despite the existence of import tariffs on Chinese resin in Mexico and Brazil, Asia's offerings continue to exert pressure on prices in Latin America in the short term.

16-Jan-2024

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd (BEPL) plans to nearly double acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) capacity in the Rajasthan state to 145,000 tonnes/year in about two years. The company signed an agreement with Toyo Engineering on the expansion from the current production capacity of 75,000 tonnes/year at Abu Road in the northwestern state. The expanded capacity is expected to come on stream by March 2026, BEPL said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange on 12 January. While BEPL has received government clearance for expanding its ABS capacity to 200,000 tonnes/year, it will initially expand capacity to 145,000 tonnes/year, it said. The company has also got clearance to increase its styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) capacity at its Abu Road complex to 25,000 tonnes/year, more than triple its current annual capacity of 7,000 tonnes/year, it said. At Satnoor in the central Madhya Pradesh state, BEPL's high rubber graft (HRG) resin capacity will be expanded to 50,000 tonnes/year, also more than triple the current capacity of 15,000 tonnes/year. HRG is used in the production of ABS, and the expansion of the HRG plant will allow the company to expand its ABS capacity, it said. “The current domestic demand of ABS surpasses the supply,” the company said, adding that it expects increased production to meet the rise in domestic demand. ABS is used in the consumer electronics and automotive sectors.

16-Jan-2024