Butadiene and c4s

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Butadiene and c4s news

Global energy transition 'visibly failing' – Aramco CEO

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The global energy transition is failing and the "fantasy" of phasing out oil and gas should be abandoned as demand for fossil fuels will continue growing, Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said on 18 March. “In the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts as it collides with five hard realities,” Nasser said at the CERAWeek 2024 energy conference in the US. These include the need to reset global efforts to meet climate ambitions, the limited scalability of alternatives, the high costs of green energy alternatives, the needs of developing nations and the potential to further reduce emissions from traditional hydrocarbons, Nasser said. “We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and instead invest in them adequately, reflecting realistic demand assumptions,” said the CEO of the Saudi Arabia-headquartered energy and chemical company. “We should ramp up our efforts to reduce carbon emissions, aggressively improve efficiency and introduce lower carbon solutions,” Nasser added. New energy sources and technologies should enter the market only when commercially viable, cost-competitive and supported by adequate infrastructure, Nasser said. Despite ongoing energy transition efforts, hydrocarbons still dominate the global energy mix, with their share declining only marginally from 83% to 80% in the 21st century, Nasser noted. Peak oil and gas demand is also “unlikely for some time to come”, with crude demand expected to reach an all-time high in the second half of this year, he said. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in an October 2023 report that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas is set to peak by 2030. Likewise, gas remains a mainstay of global energy, growing by about almost 70% since the start of the 21st century, Nasser noted. "Despite the world investing more than $9.5tr on energy transition over the past two decades, alternatives have been unable to displace hydrocarbons at scale." The current energy transition is neglecting the needs of consumers who rely on affordable and dependable energy sources, Nasser said. “Unfortunately, the current transition strategy overlooks these broader messages from consumers. It focuses almost exclusively on replacing hydrocarbons with alternatives, more on sources than on reducing emissions.” Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

19-Mar-2024

VIDEO: Global oil outlook – five factors to watch in week 12

LONDON (ICIS)– A brightening demand outlook and tighter oil supply could support benchmark crude prices this week. However, investors will be closely watching central bank meeting across the globe for clues to future monetary policy. ICIS look at the likely factors that will drive oil prices in Week 12.

18-Mar-2024

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 15 March. US CPI inflation 'sticky' at 3.2%, may delay Fed rate cuts – ICIS economist US inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose 0.4% month on month in February, leaving it up 3.2% year on year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. LyondellBasell sees signs of modest improvement in Q1 – CEO LyondellBasell is seeing some indications of modest improvement in its businesses, particularly in North America and Europe, with packaging being the strongest end market, its CEO said on Wednesday. US Trinseo seeks to sell stake in AmSty Trinseo has started the process to sell its 50% stake in Americas Styrenics (AmSty), the US-based engineered materials producer said on Wednesday. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. INSIGHT: US aromatics, refining output recedes as peak oil approaches Peak oil demand in the US could lead to a further decline in refining capacity, which will tighten supplies of benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) for downstream chemical producers. Unipar expects hardship in Argentina but Brazil PVC demand should recover Unipar’s operations in Argentina are set to face pressure from the current recession but a bright spot could appear in higher civil engineering activity in Brazil, propping up demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Friday.

18-Mar-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 March. Europe ethylene and propylene sentiment cautiously optimistic for remainder of H1 Given the better-than-expected demand conditions, with improved sales volumes and higher prices lifting many out of the mire that was 2023, the question on everyone’s lips is how long can we expect this state of affairs to last. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Surging PET bottle bale prices threaten to ‘destroy’ Europe’s R-PET market Feedstock bale prices hit €930/tonne ex-works in Poland on Monday, prompting recycled PET participants to suggest such price levels threaten to destroy the R-PET market as they fear a repeat of 2022’s disastrous price volatility. Europe acetic acid, VAM contract talks for March focus on supply disruption March negotiations are underway for European acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) contract pricing with security of supply a key influence on negotiations amid LyondellBasell’s force majeure in the US and other disruptions to global trade flows. Caution caps optimism as peak season arrives for Europe styrene market Spot activity in the Europe styrene market was moderate in the week ended 8 March, as players attended a key industry event, while cautious and conservative sentiment persisted alongside crosswinds from ongoing demand weakness and thin liquidity, high feedstock costs and reduced availability. Participants pointed to only slight improvements in demand and market optimism from levels seen in 2023. Europe cracker margins up on firmer ethylene, co-products pricing Cracker margins in Europe rose in the week on the back of firmer ethylene and co-product pricing, ICIS Margin Analysis showed on Monday.

18-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 March 2024. INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Mar-24 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. INSIGHT: Policies announced in China Two Sessions will impact domestic petchems market in 2024 By Jimmy Zhang 14-Mar-24 23:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's Two Sessions earlier this month – the yearly meetings where its legislature sets laws and its advisory body offers policy recommendations – attracted attention from the market for the growth targets set and announcements on expected future economic development. According to Premier Li Qiang, China's GDP growth target is “around 5.0%”. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Mar-24 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Asia caustic soda market could be underpinned by snug supply, limited vessel space By Jonathan Chou 13-Mar-24 15:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's liquid caustic soda spot supply may remain snug in the near term, while demand could continue its gradual growth into the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. PODCAST: China Group III base oils market sees supply, demand changes By Whitney Shi 12-Mar-24 15:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS Senior Industry Analyst Whitney Shi and ICIS Assistant Industry Analyst Jady Ma talk about supply and demand changes in China’s Group III base oils market. Saudi Aramco '23 profit falls on softer crude; ’24 focus on downstream growth By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Mar-24 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2023 fell by 24.7% to Saudi riyal (SR) 454.8bn ($121.3bn), weighed by weaker crude oil prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins.

18-Mar-2024

Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA

LONDON (ICIS)–Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Q1 crude oil demand is likely to be higher than the agency initially forecast on the back of a stronger economic outlook for the US, which is likely to buoy total consumption growth for the period to 1.7 million bbl/day. A stronger early 2024 demand forecast drove a 120,000 bbl/day increase in full-year estimates, with the IEA now projecting 1.3 million bbl/day consumption growth. The IEA projection remains substantially below OPEC forecasts of 2.2 million bbl/day, but it has repeatedly increased its projections, growing 400,000 bbl/day from the agency’s 900,000 bbl/day forecast in October 2023. Supply declined quarter on quarter in January-March as demand firmed, dropping 870,000 bbl/day during the period on the back of extreme weather disruptions and voluntary output curbs from OPEC+. The cartel and its partners recently announced plans to extend curbs into the second quarter of the year, with the IEA saying in its latest oil market report that the baseline assumption is now for those measures to remain in place through 2024. “On that basis, our balance for the year shifts from a surplus to a slight deficit, but oil tanks may get some relief as the massive volumes of oil on water reach their final destination,” the IEA said. Declining onshore oil inventories, along with trade dislocations from Russia and the impact of Middle East tensions on ocean trade flows has substantially shifted the balance of reserves towards ‘oil on water’, according to the IEA. Repeated attacks on tankers in the Red Sea intensified this trend last month, with 1.9 billion barrels of oil ocean-bound as of the end of February, according to the IEA, the second-highest figure since the height of the pandemic. Despite growing 2024 demand expectations over the last few months, the IEA continues to project that oil consumption is reverting back to its historical trend as the pandemic-era rebound tapers off and electric vehicle sales grow. Non-OECD countries are expected to comprise the vast majority of consumption growth this year, but demand from China is expected to crater, although it will remain the most pivotal sales driver for the industry. “[China’s] oil demand growth slows from 1.7 million bbl/day in 2023 to 620,000 bbl/day in 2024, or from roughly three-quarters to half of the global total, under the gathering weight of a challenging economic environment and slower expansion in its petrochemical sector,” the IEA added. The agency estimates that the OPEC+ bloc had 5.72 million bbl/day of effective spare capacity compared to February, with 5.34 million bbl/day of that total from the core OPEC member states. One country, Saudi Arabia, accounted for more than half of total OPEC+ spare capacity, at 3.12 million barrels. Focus articled by Tom Brown. Thumbnail photo source: Photo source: Jose Bula Urrutia/Eyepix Group/Shutterstock

14-Mar-2024

VIDEO: Global oil outlook. Five factors to watch in week 11

LONDON (ICIS)–Crude prices could be subject to bullish pressure this week as tensions in the Middle East advance. Monthly oil reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC, due this week, could better illuminate the global supply and demand balance for the rest of the year. ICIS experts look at likely factors that will drive oil prices in Week 11.

11-Mar-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 8 March. BP Gelsenkirchen refinery scale-back underscores Germany's competitive hurdles BP is set to become the latest European oil and gas player to cut crude oil refining capacity in Germany, with the UK-headquartered firm citing structurally high costs and declining demand for conventional fuels. Poland’s Azoty rejects calls for Pulawy subsidiary to go it alone Second largest European fertilizer producer Grupa Azoty “faces an urgent challenge to return to a stable development path”, but any attempt to split off subsidiary Grupa Azoty Pulawy “would have a number of negative consequences”, the Polish group on Wednesday said in a statement. Celanese to close engineered materials site in Belgium Celanese plans to close an Engineered Materials compounding site at Mechelen, Belgium that was part of its $11 billion acquisition of DuPont’s Mobility & Materials business in 2022. Indorama eyes upstream plant shutdowns with 6 assets under review – Group CEO Indorama Ventures is reviewing six operating assets in the ‘West’ for potential shutdown as it seeks to boost competitiveness and exit the merchant market for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) feedstocks amid intensifying competition from China, its group CEO and Founder said. Evonik sells superabsorbents business to ICIG to focus on specialties Germany’s Evonik has signed a deal to sell its superabsorbents business to International Chemical Investors Group (ICIG), a privately-held industrial group headquartered in Germany.

11-Mar-2024

Saudi Aramco '23 profit falls on softer crude; ’24 focus on downstream growth

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2023 fell by 24.7% to Saudi riyal (SR) 454.8bn ($121.3bn), weighed by weaker crude oil prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins. Despite the year-on-year decline, the 2023 net profit was the company’s “second-highest ever” after posting a record figure in 2022, Aramco president and CEO Amin Nasser said in a statement on 10 March. in Saudi Riyal (SR) billion 2023 2022 % Change Sales 1,653 2,007 -17.6 Operational Profit 868 1,144 -24.1 Net income 454.8 604.0 -24.7 "The recent directive from the government to maintain our maximum sustainable capacity at 12 million barrels per day provides increased flexibility, as well as an opportunity to focus on increasing gas production and growing our liquids-to-chemicals business," he said. Saudi Aramco increased its 2023 total dividends by 30% to SR97.8bn despite posting lower net profit and expects to distribute some $43.1bn in performance-linked dividends in 2024. The Saudi government directly holds about 82.2% of the company, which is the world’s biggest oil exporter. Saudi sovereign wealth fund – Public Investment Fund (PIF) – has raised its stake in the Saudi-listed energy giant to 16% following a share transfer last week. Meanwhile, Aramco expects its 2024 capital investments to be about $48bn to $58bn, which should continue "growing until around the middle of the decade". Capital investments in 2023 totaled $49.7bn, up 28% from 2022. 2023 DOWNSTREAM INVESTMENTS China: Aramco bought 10% of Rongsheng Petrochemical, with a long-term deal to supply 480,000 bbl/day of crude oil to the Chinese firm’s affiliate, Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical (ZPC), which operates one of the largest integrated refining and chemicals complex in the country. Saudi Arabia: Aramco and TotalEnergies awarded engineering, procurement, and construction contracts for the $11.0bn Amiral complex, a world-scale petrochemicals facility expansion at the SATORP refinery in Jubail slated for start-up in 2027. Lubricants: Aramco acquired Valvoline's global products business, boosting its base oil production and R&D for lubricants. Retail business: Aramco entered South America by acquiring a leading Chilean fuel and lubricant retailer Esmax. "Our capital expenditures increased in line with guidance as we seek to create and capture additional value from our operations, positioning the company for a future in which we believe oil and gas will be a key part of the global energy mix for many decades to come, alongside new energy solutions," Nasser said. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry had asked Aramco to abandon plans to raise its maximum sustainable production capacity to 13m bbl/day from 12m bbl/day by 2027. “The directive to maintain Maximum Sustainable Capacity at 12 million barrels per day, mainly from deferral of projects not yet commissioned and reductions in infill drilling, is expected to reduce capital investment by approximately $40 billion between 2024 and 2028,” Aramco said. The maximum sustainable capacity is the highest level of oil production the Kingdom can maintain without harming long-term oil well health and output. In 2023, Aramco’s average hydrocarbon production was 12.8m barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed), including 10.7m bbl/day of total liquids, down from 11.5m bb/day in 2022. Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader of oil cartel OPEC, whose members have been curbing output since late 2022 to prevent oil prices from crashing amid weak global demand. On 3 March 2024, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed on 3 March to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2m bbl/day into the second quarter. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman ($1 = SR3.75) Thumbnail image: Saudi Aramco company logo, 4 January 2024 (Yassine Mahjoub/SIPA/Shutterstock)

11-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 8 March 2024. Asia, Mideast petrochemical trades to slow down during Ramadan By Nurluqman Suratman 08-Mar-24 13:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Trades for several petrochemicals in Asia and the Middle East will slow down as markets observe Ramadan starting 10 March, with demand going into a lull amid shorter working hours during the Muslim fasting month. Asia naphtha sentiment improves; supplies to tighten By Li Peng Seng 08-Mar-24 12:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha intermonth spread rose to a one-month high on 7 March amid expectations of fewer arbitrage cargoes arriving in April from the west due to Europe’s demand for gasoline and petrochemicals. Lotte Chemical mulls 'strategic measures' for Malaysian-listed LC Titan By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Mar-24 13:35 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean producer Lotte Chemical said on Thursday that it is exploring options for its Malaysian subsidiary, in response to local media reports that the unit is up for sale. Weak China demand to weigh on oil markets despite OPEC+ supply cut extension By Fanny Zhang 06-Mar-24 12:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economic weakness will continue weigh on crude oil prices despite the decision by oil cartel OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) to prolong their production cuts to support the market. Asian spot TiO2 market set to enjoy support in March By Joson Ng 01-Mar-24 13:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The titanium dioxide (TiO2) Asian spot market is likely to see improving or stable demand in March, especially in China, as the traditional peak demand season kicks in. As producers in China are also citing a healthy number of orders on hand, they are not likely to allow cargoes to go unless the bids are close to their valuation. Asia polyester market at standstill amid firm costs, weak fundamentals By Judith Wang 05-Mar-24 14:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The polyester export market in Asia has fallen into a standstill amid a tug of war between firm cost pressure and weak market fundamentals. INSIGHT: China 2024 growth target will require stronger stimulus measures By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Mar-24 00:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is likely to need to introduce stronger stimulus measures to meet its official growth target of around 5% for this year given the country's deep structural imbalances. Chemical, palms freight costs up as tanker supply tightens into March By Hwee Hwee Tan 07-Mar-24 18:02 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A tanker supply crunch persisting into March has pushed up shipping costs for chemical and palms cargoes traded on Asia’s spot market.

11-Mar-2024

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