Polyethylene (PE)

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Polyethylene (PE) news

BLOG: China average LLDPE net imports could be just 300,000 tonnes/yr in 2024-2030

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: In the third of series on China’s increasing petrochemicals self-sufficiency, I examine scenarios for the country’s linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) net imports in 2024-2030. The ICIS Base Case sees China’s LLDPE demand growth averaging 4% a year in 2024-2030 with the average annual operating rate at 73%. This would leave net imports at a healthy annual average of 6.5m tonnes. Last year, net imports were 5.9m tonnes. Demand growth at just 4% would compare with actual average annual demand growth of 13% in 1992-2023 and an operating rate of 91%. But I believe that because of China’s demographic and debt challenges, its petrochemicals demand growth is likely to fall to 1-3% per year. For argument’s sake, let’s assume 1.5% growth for LLDPE in 2023-2040, the middle of this range. Let’s also assume that China runs its plants at an annual average of 83% while adding 4.4m tonnes/year of unconfirmed capacity as part of its self-sufficiency drive. Under this Downside 1 Scenario, average annual net imports would fall to 1.8m tonnes. Downside Scenario 2 again sees demand growth averaging 1.5% per year and 4.4m tonnes/year of unconfirmed capacity coming onstream, but the operating rate averaging 91% a year – the same as the historic average. Net imports would fall to an annual average of just 300,000 tonnes. Under the two Downsides, China would remain in big net import positions in 2024-2026 before reaching close to balanced positions in 2027-2028 and then small net exports in the remaining two years of the decade. There are some people out there who argue that this is just another cyclical downturn, albeit an extended one. The ICIS data consistently suggests otherwise. I believe we are instead seeing a radical shift in how our industry behaves. This means an equally radical shift in business models to a greater focus on the end-users of petrochemicals, on sustainability and on growth opportunities in the developing world outside China. For details on the practical and detailed implications for your company, contact me at john.richardson@icis.com. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

18-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 March 2024. INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Mar-24 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. INSIGHT: Policies announced in China Two Sessions will impact domestic petchems market in 2024 By Jimmy Zhang 14-Mar-24 23:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's Two Sessions earlier this month – the yearly meetings where its legislature sets laws and its advisory body offers policy recommendations – attracted attention from the market for the growth targets set and announcements on expected future economic development. According to Premier Li Qiang, China's GDP growth target is “around 5.0%”. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Mar-24 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Asia caustic soda market could be underpinned by snug supply, limited vessel space By Jonathan Chou 13-Mar-24 15:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's liquid caustic soda spot supply may remain snug in the near term, while demand could continue its gradual growth into the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. PODCAST: China Group III base oils market sees supply, demand changes By Whitney Shi 12-Mar-24 15:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS Senior Industry Analyst Whitney Shi and ICIS Assistant Industry Analyst Jady Ma talk about supply and demand changes in China’s Group III base oils market. Saudi Aramco '23 profit falls on softer crude; ’24 focus on downstream growth By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Mar-24 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2023 fell by 24.7% to Saudi riyal (SR) 454.8bn ($121.3bn), weighed by weaker crude oil prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins.

18-Mar-2024

VIDEO: Europe R-PET market fears 2022 repeat as Polish bales breach €900/tonne

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including Polish colourless bales hit €930/tonne ex-works Genuine concerns the market facing repeat of 2022 extreme price volatility R-PET flake now at parity with PET

15-Mar-2024

INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. IVL plant closures likely to focus on PTA – sources Tariff barriers dampen growth prospects for China PTA, PET exports China pins hopes on Belt and Road Initiative for new markets IVL cited overcapacity in China as one of the principal reasons for its new strategy – to procure cheaper feedstock from Asia, instead of running integrated facilities in the US. “A large portion of the refineries in the West are aged and losing their competitiveness. These facilities are expected to gradually close in the future,” ICIS senior analyst Jimmy Zhang said. The Thai company is the largest global PET resin producer with a 20% global market share and operates 147 production facilities in 35 countries, with its sales footprint covering over 100 countries in six regions – North America, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and South America. IVL 2.0 CALLS FOR SHUTDOWN OF SOME PTA UNITS Globally, IVL has a total production capacity of around 19m tonnes/year, the bulk of which or 67% are in combined PET business, which covers integrated PET, specialty chemicals and packaging, according to Thai investment research firm Innovest Securities. Integrated olefins derivatives account for 21% of the total capacity, while fibres have a share of 12%, it added. Market players said that in the US, IVL may prioritize shutting down PTA units over monoethylene glycol (MEG) units, whose production costs are still competitive compared with other global producers, thanks to their use of shale gas. “Given the current economic and market conditions, it is a wise decision to sell the assets which could not make money to ‘save its life’,” a trader in Asia said. In Asia, IVL currently operates three PTA assets – two in Thailand and one in Indonesia. According to market sources, the company could potentially mothball one of its less cost-effective PTA units in Thailand due to old age and technical issuSes. Its operations in Indonesia can better serve India, benefitting from competitive freight rates to IVL’s key market in Asia, they said. For now, IVL’s PTA plants in Asia still hold a unique export advantage in the south Asian country, as they are certified by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). This certification was mandated by India late last year. Currently, no Chinese PTA producers have obtained BIS certification, reducing competition for IVL from Chinese imports. Origin swaps for PTA have taken place, with lower priced China cargoes being exported into southeast Asia as well as their downstream PET asset in Egypt. This enables Indorama to push for more exports to India at a much better price netback. This will unlikely change unless China PTA producers are able to obtain the BIS certification from India. Under its new masterplan dubbed “IVL 2.0”, IVL said that it will be reviewing six operating assets in the ‘West’ for potential shutdown, as it seeks to boost competitiveness. Including the Corpus Christi Polymers (CCP) joint venture project with Alpek and Far Eastern New Century (FENC) whose construction was halted, the number of projects under review total seven. IVL chief Aloke Lohia said that feedstock prices in Western markets are expected to increase over time as peak oil demand draws closer and refineries shut down, while the reverse will occur in emerging Asian markets as capacity rises, driving feedstock costs lower. The rise in refining capacity in China and India allows IVL to buy petrochemical feedstocks cheaper than they could produce them domestically,  Lohia had told ICIS. CHINA CAN FILL IN IVL PTA NEEDS China has the ability to export PTA at much lower cost amid a domestic oversupply, with the country’s annual production capacity now at more than 70m tonnes, only a small fraction of which – around 3m tonnes – are shipped abroad, according to the ICIS Supply & Demand Database. Over the years, China has continually increased its capacity across the entire polyester chain, granting Chinese producers a significant advantage in integration and scale for paraxylene (PX), PTA and PET, Zhang said. The country is now a major PTA exporter and has swung from being the world’s biggest net importer of polyester fibres and PET resins (bottle and film grade) to being the biggest net exporter, ICIS senior Asia consultant John Richardson said. But trade barriers in several countries hamper imports from China, raising the likelihood of “more barter trading activities” in the future, Zhang said. He is referring to a process in which Chinese cargoes will move to a duty-free country, which, in turn, will re-sell the volumes. With the change of origin, the cargoes can then be sold to markets with existing trade barriers to China duty free. “For example, it is likely that China will export more PTA to South Korea, while South Korea will export more PTA to other countries who set trading barriers for China,” Zhang said. CHINA CHANGES APPROACH TO TRADEWith anti-dumping investigations curtailing direct exports of PET to certain markets, China is moving away from western markets, shifting its focus on those covered by free-trade agreements within its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). The country’s PET export market has shrunk since mid-2023 after the EU started anti-dumping investigations, with provisional duties on Chinese material activated in November of the same year. Anti-dumping investigations against Chinese PET, meanwhile, are ongoing in Mexico in North America and South Korea in Asia. China is expanding free-trade agreements (FTAs) with Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and non-BRI member countries to counter growing geopolitical differences with the west, potentially leading to a shift in trading patterns as Chinese apparel and non-apparel production moves offshore to these nations, ICIS’ Richardson said. Overseas plants could be supplied by China-made polyester fibres, allowing the country to retain dominance in the global polyester value chain and offset rising labour costs, Richardson said. “Offshoring to the developing world may also enable China to make up for any lost exports of finished polyester-products to the West due to increased trade tensions,” Richardson added. China had signed 21 free trade agreements with 28 countries and regions as of August 2023, according to the Chinese state-owned Xinhua news agency. More than 80 countries and international organizations had subscribed to the “initiative on promoting unimpeded trade cooperation along the Belt and Road”, which is part of the BRI, it said. Source: Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) Insight article by Nurluqman Suratman With contributions from Judith Wang and Samuel Wong Thumbnail image: Canal Container Transport, Huai'an, China – 12 March 2024 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

15-Mar-2024

BLOG: China PX net annual average imports may fall to 700,000 tonnes in 2024-2030

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Only a few people thought that China would reach self-sufficiency in purified terephthalic acid (PTA). I was among the few. Now China is a major PTA exporter. This followed China swinging from being the world’s biggest net importer of polyester fibres and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resins (bottle and film grade) to being the biggest net exporter. Paraxylene (PX) could be the next shoe to drop as today’s post discusses. Given China’s total domination of global PX net imports – and the concentration of major PX exports in just a small number of countries and companies – the potential disruption to the global business is huge. The ICIS Base Case assumes China’s PX demand growth will average 1% per annum in 2024-2030 with the local operating rate at 82%. Such an outcome would lead to China’s net PX imports at annual average of 7.4m tonnes in 2024-2030. This would compare with 2023 net imports of 9.1m tonnes. Downside Scenario 1 sees demand growth the same as in the base case. But under Downside Scenario 1, I raise the local operating rate to 88%, the same as the 1993-2023 average. I also add 6.2m tonnes/year to China’s capacity, which comprises unconfirmed plants in our database. Downside 1 would result in net imports dropping to a 2024-2030 annual average of just 1.5m tonnes/year. Downside Scenario 2 again sees demand growth the same as in the base case, an operating rate of 90% and 6.2m tonnes/year of unconfirmed capacity Net imports would fall to an annual average of just 700,000 tonnes a year. As an important 26 February 2024 Financial Times article explores, China continues to build free-trade agreements with Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and non-BRI member countries as a hedge against growing geopolitical differences with the West. We could thus see a significant shift in trading patterns as more Chinese apparel and non-apparel production moves offshore to these countries, with the overseas plants fed by China-made polyester fibres. China could thus maintain its dominance of the global polyester value chain via this offshoring process, thereby compensating for its rising labour costs. Offshoring to the developing world may also enable China to make up for any lost exports of finished polyester-products to the West due to increased trade tensions. This shift in downstream investments and trade flows could provide economic justification for just about complete PX and mono-ethylene glycols (MEG) self-sufficiency, which will be the subject of a future post. These are the only two missing pieces in China’s polyester jigsaw puzzle. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

13-Mar-2024

INSIGHT: Europe’s PET industry in legislative ‘grey zone’ as the clock ticks on

LONDON (ICIS)–Over 300 members of the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) industry gathered in Brussels at the annual Petcore Europe conference in February, looking for clarity on the wide-ranging, market-changing packaging and waste legislation currently under discussion in the EU, but many left only slightly more informed than when they arrived. EU legislators unable to give clarity on key topics Questions remain around imports Exciting opportunities for growing sectors The industry is currently in a “grey zone’ that relates to the outcome of voting on the EU’s draft Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) according to Leonor Garcia of consultants E&Act. It would be fair to say, however, that this is the case for most pieces of legislation aimed at the PET and wider plastics industry in Europe. The European Parliament and European Council reached provisional agreement on the regulation earlier this month although the text of that agreement has not been published. The EU Commission, acting as mediator in the trilogue between the two co-legislators, has stalled its approval. The three regulatory bodies involved in the trialogue for the regulation – the European Parliament, the European Commission, and the Council of the European Union – had different views and opinions when it came to topics such as recyclability of plastics, recycled content, restrictions on packaging formats and, particularly, on reuse targets for 2030 and 2040, Garcia noted. This point around reuse targets was emphasized by Delphine Close of soft drinks industry group UNESDA, and the chair of Petcore’s Reuse working group, presenting the different views of the three bodies around reuse targets. PETcore is the trade body representing PET value chains in Europe. When looking at exemptions to the PPWR reuse targets, for example, the Commission has no real exemptions, the Council one exemption and the Parliament several. But it is the timeframe that is of major concern for Close who pointed out that the three parties had little time to reach a decision on a regulation that will change the face of the European plastic packaging industry and its obligations to the circular economy. "There were high expectations for clarity around the regulations by delegates of the conference but at a time when the legislators were still deep in discussions. Clearly industry needs to prepare for the regulations and how it will impact their business but are unable to do so while answers on so many points are still outstanding.” said Helen McGeough, Senior Analyst, Plastics Recycling at ICIS. “To mirror comments made by participants in the event, regulation around recycled plastics is building at a rate which challenges the value chain to keep pace with. Clarity can only support the value chain in delivering on those requirements. That said, the atmosphere was positively charged during the networking breaks, with this sector demonstrating high levels of collaboration to the common goal of improving the circularity of PET.” The audience did not hide its dissatisfaction with some comments from the Commission speakers on the status of non-plastic packaging potential exemptions from the recycled content quotas. Shortly after the Petcore conference a legal assessment was profiled by the European Plastic Converters trade association (EuPC) to highlight that the bans on plastic film for a six-pack of bottles, for example, or exemption of coated paper packaging from recycled content quotas are likely not to be compatible with EU law. TIME RUNNING OUTThe European Parliament will end its mandate in April, and a new parliament will take its place, so the race is on to get the final vote on the PPWR though before then. Nicholas Hodac, Director General of UNESDA said there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the Commission's and the Parliament’s priorities ahead of the new EU policy cycle in 2024 but stressed that a major focus for UNESDA “has to be the proper implementation of EU legislation that was adopted”. Hodac pointed out that while climate change is likely to remain a top priority during the next parliamentary cycle, focus could shift towards more nature-based policies such as nature restoration, restoration of biodiversity and protection of water resources. QUESTIONS AROUND IMPORTSOne of the main topics brought up during the course of the event was the stance on the flow of waste and products containing recycled material both into and out of the EU. There was a lot of uncertainty around this particular topic, even from Wolfgang Trunk, team leader of the Commission’s DG Environment working group who stated this was the “most delicate” and “most uncomfortable” point for him during his presentation. Trunk pointed to the fact that the Commission’s current proposal relating to the volume of recycled content in products is for products ‘placed on the market’, which, Trunk said, implies these products would be placed on the EU market. Trunk said this failed to take into account imports of products such as PET bottles, for example, that are manufactured in the US but exported to the EU. The current wording would imply this imported product would also be required to meet the same recycled content targets as bottles manufactured in the EU and contain recycled content from EU-produced waste. This contradiction illustrates both the complexity and ambiguity of the wording in the current legislation and raises the question of how the industry should interpret it. On top of this, the ban on exporting waste from the EU to non-OECD countries will take effect from 2026, but, Trunk said, these same non-OECD countries can still be allowed to produce products with recycled content if they fulfill certain conditions. GROWTH AREASOutside of the complexity of legislation, there were updates on the textiles and depolymerisation markets as well as the ever-popular tray to tray sector where design for recycling will play a key role in bringing recycling to an industrial scale. These demonstrated the ability of the PET industry to innovate to achieve recycling solutions. LONG PATH AHEADThe industry faces many challenges, however, when it comes to legislation, particularly due to the current lack of clarity coming from Brussels around specific targets, timelines and what might or might not be counted towards recycled content. The trade group’s conference showed the willingness to work together to address these. All it needs now is for Europe’s legislative bodies to keep pace and clarify targets and requirements. Insight by Matt Tudball and Helen McGeough

12-Mar-2024

Latin America stories: weekly summary

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 8 March. NEWS Brazil’s chemicals output up nearly 8% in January Brazil’s chemicals output rose by 7.9% in January from December, despite the 1.6% fall in overall industrial output, according to the country’s statistics office, IBGE. Brazil’s automotive output up strongly in February as investments soar Brazil’s petrochemicals-intensive automotive industry’s output rose in February by nearly 25%, month on month, in a sign of a strong recovery in the sector, automotive trade group Anfavea said on Thursday. Mexico’s inflation falls to 4.4% in February Mexico’s annual rate of inflation fell in February to 4.40%, down from 4.88% in January, the country’s statistics office, INEGI said on Thursday. Mexico’s automotive output up nearly 8% in February Mexico’s automotive sector posted an increase in output of 7.76% in February, year on year, to nearly 320,000 units, slowing down slightly from January, the country’s statistical office Inegi said on Wednesday. Brazil’s Unigel halts fertilizers production on high natural gas prices Unigel is to “temporarily stop” nitrogen fertilizers production because of high costs and low prices, effective on Wednesday, the Brazilian chemicals and fertilizers producer said. Auto major Stellantis to invest €5.6 billion in South America to 2030 Stellantis is to invest €5.6 billion in its South American operations in 2025-2030, with Brazil’s Betim facilities set to greatly expand to produce hybrid vehicles, the global automotive major said on Wednesday. Petrobras finds no irregularities on Unigel tolling contract after internal investigation Brazil’s state-owned energy major Petrobras has announced the conclusion of its internal investigation into the tolling contract with Unigel, finding no irregularities, the company said on 4 March. PRICING Mexico's PET prices continue to be threatened by import in 2024 Despite the continuous application of import tariffs on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) from Asia, the influx of imports into Mexico, offering enticing deals, is effectively keeping PET prices away from notable price increases.

11-Mar-2024

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 8 March. Evonik sells superabsorbents business to ICIG to focus on specialties Germany’s Evonik has signed a deal to sell its superabsorbents business to International Chemical Investors Group (ICIG), a privately-held industrial group headquartered in Germany. ICIG will acquire the entire division with around 1,000 employees and superabsorbent production facilities in Krefeld and Rheinmuenster, Germany, as well as two locations in the US, in Greensboro, North Carolina, and Garyville, Louisiana. Indorama Ventures will divest, right-size assets and cut costs under revised strategy Fundamental long-term changes in global chemicals markets have prompted a significant review of strategy, Indorama Ventures said on Monday. Indorama eyes upstream plant shutdowns with 6 assets under review – Group CEO Indorama Ventures is reviewing six operating assets in the ‘West’ for potential shutdown as it seeks to boost competitiveness and exit the merchant market for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) feedstocks amid intensifying competition from China, its group CEO and Founder said. Brazil’s Unigel halts fertilizers production on high natural gas prices Unigel is to “temporarily stop” nitrogen fertilizers production because of high costs and low prices, effective on Wednesday, the Brazilian chemicals and fertilizers producer said. Chemours says suspended execs tried to influence cash flows An internal review showed that top executives at Chemours tried to influence the reporting of the company’s cash flows, the US-based titanium dioxide (TiO2) and fluoromaterials producer said in an update late on Wednesday. LOGISTICS: Panama Canal to add additional slots in Panamax Locks beginning 25 March The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) announced on Friday that it will open additional slots in the Panamax Locks beginning 25 March based on the present and projected water levels in Gatun Lake.

11-Mar-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 8 March. BP Gelsenkirchen refinery scale-back underscores Germany's competitive hurdles BP is set to become the latest European oil and gas player to cut crude oil refining capacity in Germany, with the UK-headquartered firm citing structurally high costs and declining demand for conventional fuels. Poland’s Azoty rejects calls for Pulawy subsidiary to go it alone Second largest European fertilizer producer Grupa Azoty “faces an urgent challenge to return to a stable development path”, but any attempt to split off subsidiary Grupa Azoty Pulawy “would have a number of negative consequences”, the Polish group on Wednesday said in a statement. Celanese to close engineered materials site in Belgium Celanese plans to close an Engineered Materials compounding site at Mechelen, Belgium that was part of its $11 billion acquisition of DuPont’s Mobility & Materials business in 2022. Indorama eyes upstream plant shutdowns with 6 assets under review – Group CEO Indorama Ventures is reviewing six operating assets in the ‘West’ for potential shutdown as it seeks to boost competitiveness and exit the merchant market for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) feedstocks amid intensifying competition from China, its group CEO and Founder said. Evonik sells superabsorbents business to ICIG to focus on specialties Germany’s Evonik has signed a deal to sell its superabsorbents business to International Chemical Investors Group (ICIG), a privately-held industrial group headquartered in Germany.

11-Mar-2024

VIDEO: Europe R-PET C flake prices hit parity with PET

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including, Colourless flake prices hit same levels as virgin PET Closing of delta with virgin raises questions on flake demand Eastern Europe bale prices maintain strong uptrend

08-Mar-2024

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