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Global energy transition 'visibly failing' – Aramco CEO

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The global energy transition is failing and the "fantasy" of phasing out oil and gas should be abandoned as demand for fossil fuels will continue growing, Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said on 18 March. “In the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts as it collides with five hard realities,” Nasser said at the CERAWeek 2024 energy conference in the US. These include the need to reset global efforts to meet climate ambitions, the limited scalability of alternatives, the high costs of green energy alternatives, the needs of developing nations and the potential to further reduce emissions from traditional hydrocarbons, Nasser said. “We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and instead invest in them adequately, reflecting realistic demand assumptions,” said the CEO of the Saudi Arabia-headquartered energy and chemical company. “We should ramp up our efforts to reduce carbon emissions, aggressively improve efficiency and introduce lower carbon solutions,” Nasser added. New energy sources and technologies should enter the market only when commercially viable, cost-competitive and supported by adequate infrastructure, Nasser said. Despite ongoing energy transition efforts, hydrocarbons still dominate the global energy mix, with their share declining only marginally from 83% to 80% in the 21st century, Nasser noted. Peak oil and gas demand is also “unlikely for some time to come”, with crude demand expected to reach an all-time high in the second half of this year, he said. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in an October 2023 report that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas is set to peak by 2030. Likewise, gas remains a mainstay of global energy, growing by about almost 70% since the start of the 21st century, Nasser noted. "Despite the world investing more than $9.5tr on energy transition over the past two decades, alternatives have been unable to displace hydrocarbons at scale." The current energy transition is neglecting the needs of consumers who rely on affordable and dependable energy sources, Nasser said. “Unfortunately, the current transition strategy overlooks these broader messages from consumers. It focuses almost exclusively on replacing hydrocarbons with alternatives, more on sources than on reducing emissions.” Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

19-Mar-2024

AFPM '24: INSIGHT: Biden ending term with regulatory bang for US chems

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The administration of US President Joe Biden is proposing a wave of regulations before its term ends in 2025, many of which will increase costs for chemical companies in the US and persist even if the nation elects a new president later this year. The prospect of such consequential policies comes as delegates head into this year's International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). Changes to the Clean Waters Act, the Risk Management Program (RMP) and the Hazard Communication Standard are among the most consequential policies being considered by US regulators. Electric vehicles (EVs) could receive more support from federal and state governments. This would increase demand for plastics used in EVs while discouraging refiners from making further investments, which could limit US production of benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX). The failure of Congress to re-authorize the nation's chemical site security program could spell its end. REGULATORY PUSH DURING ELECTION YEARSuch a regulatory push by the Biden administration was flagged last year by the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD), the new name for the National Association of Chemical Distributors (NACD). The group was not crying wolf. The next nine months could rank among the worst for the chemical industry in terms of regulatory change and potential issues, said Eric Byer, president of the ACD. "Whatever it's going to be, it will come done fairly aggressively." The Biden administration has proposed several consequential policies. For the Clean Water Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing new requirements, which will require chemical producers and other companies to develop plans to address the worst possible discharge from their plants. The ACD warned that the new requirement would raise compliance costs while doing little to reduce the already small number of discharges by plants. The final rule is scheduled to be published in April 2024. For the RMP, changes could require chemical companies to share information that has been off limits since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The concern is that the information will fall into the wrong hands, while significantly increasing costs to comply with the new requirements, according to the ACD. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is introducing changes to its Hazard Communication Standard that could create more burdens for companies. The ACD warned that some of the changes will increase costs without providing a commensurate improvement in safety. The EPA has started the multiyear process that, under the regulator's current whole-chemical approach, will lead to restrictions imposed on vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), acrylonitrile (ACN) and aniline, a chemical used to make methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). This is being done through the nation's main chemical safety program, known as the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). MORE POLICIES PROPOSED FOR EVsThe Biden administration is proposing additional polices to encourage the adoption of EVs. For chemical producers, more EVs would increase demand for plastics, resins and thermal management fluids that are designed to meet the material challenges of these automobiles. At the same time, the push towards EVs could limit sales of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs), lowering demand for gasoline and diesel. Refiners could decide to shut down and repurpose their complexes if they expect demand for their main products will stop growing or decline. That would lower production of aromatics and other refinery chemicals and refined products. The Biden administration is moving on three fronts to encourage EV sales. The EPA is expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II), which would phase out the sale of ICE-based vehicles to 2035. If the EPA grants California's request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. The EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal would impose stricter standards on tail pipe emissions. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) is proposing stricter efficiency standards under its Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. The AFPM opposes these measures. It said the EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal and DOT's new CAFE standards are so demanding, it would force automobile companies to produce a lot more EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles to meet the more ambitious requirements. LAX OVERSIGHT OF SHIPPING RATES IN WAKE OF HOUTHISThe ACD raised concerns that the US is not doing enough to address the possibility that shipping rates and delays have increased beyond what could be justified by the disruptions caused by the drought in Panama and by the Houthi attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal. The ACD accepts that costs will rise, but it expressed concerns that shipping companies could be taking advantage of the situation by charging excessive rates on routes unaffected by the disruptions. These include routes from India and China to the western coast of the US, Byer said. "Why are you jacking up the price two or threefold?" LABOR NEGOTIATIONS FOR US EAST COASTThe work contract will expire this year for dockworkers and ports along the East Coast of the US. Byer warned of a possible strike if the talks become too contentious. On the West Coast, dockworkers and ports reached an agreement on a six-year work contract. CFATS ON LIFE SUPPORTByer expressed concerns about the future of the main chemical-site security program, called the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS). CFATS is overseen by the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which is under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). CISA lost authority to implement CFATS on 28 July 2023, when a bill that would have re-authorized it was blocked from going to a vote in the Senate. Without CFATS, other federal and state agencies could create their own chemical-site security regulations. This process has already started in the US state of Nebraska, where State Senator Eliot Bostar introduced LB1048. Other nearby states in the plains could introduce similar bills, because they tend to follow each other's lead, Byer said. Many of these state legislatures should wrap up sessions in the next couple of months, so lawmakers still have time to propose chemical-site security bills. The ACD is most concerned about larger states creating chemical-site security programs, such as California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. SENATE RAIL BILL REMAINS PENDINGA Senate rail safety bill has been pending for more than a year after a bipartisan group of legislators introduced it following the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. Congress has about 10 months to approve the bill before it lapses, Byer said. For bills in general, action during an election year could happen around the Memorial Day holiday in May, the 4 July recess, the August recess or before the end of September. After September, legislators will be focused on campaigning for the 5 November election. TEXAS BRINGS BACK TAX BREAKS FOR INDUSTRIAL PROJECTSTexas has revived a program that granted tax breaks to new chemical plants and other large industrial projects. The new program is called the Texas Jobs and Security Act, and it replaced the lapsed Chapter 313 School Value Limitation Agreement. The old program was popular with chemical companies, and their applications were among the first public disclosures of their expansion plans. The new program has already attracted applicants. Summit Next Gen is considering a plant that would convert 450 million gal/year of ethanol into 256 million gal/year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Hosted by the AFPM, the IPC takes place on March 24-26. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a federal building. Image by Lucky-photographer

18-Mar-2024

VIDEO: Global oil outlook – five factors to watch in week 12

LONDON (ICIS)– A brightening demand outlook and tighter oil supply could support benchmark crude prices this week. However, investors will be closely watching central bank meeting across the globe for clues to future monetary policy. ICIS look at the likely factors that will drive oil prices in Week 12.

18-Mar-2024

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 15 March. US CPI inflation 'sticky' at 3.2%, may delay Fed rate cuts – ICIS economist US inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose 0.4% month on month in February, leaving it up 3.2% year on year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. LyondellBasell sees signs of modest improvement in Q1 – CEO LyondellBasell is seeing some indications of modest improvement in its businesses, particularly in North America and Europe, with packaging being the strongest end market, its CEO said on Wednesday. US Trinseo seeks to sell stake in AmSty Trinseo has started the process to sell its 50% stake in Americas Styrenics (AmSty), the US-based engineered materials producer said on Wednesday. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. INSIGHT: US aromatics, refining output recedes as peak oil approaches Peak oil demand in the US could lead to a further decline in refining capacity, which will tighten supplies of benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) for downstream chemical producers. Unipar expects hardship in Argentina but Brazil PVC demand should recover Unipar’s operations in Argentina are set to face pressure from the current recession but a bright spot could appear in higher civil engineering activity in Brazil, propping up demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Friday.

18-Mar-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 March. Europe ethylene and propylene sentiment cautiously optimistic for remainder of H1 Given the better-than-expected demand conditions, with improved sales volumes and higher prices lifting many out of the mire that was 2023, the question on everyone’s lips is how long can we expect this state of affairs to last. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Surging PET bottle bale prices threaten to ‘destroy’ Europe’s R-PET market Feedstock bale prices hit €930/tonne ex-works in Poland on Monday, prompting recycled PET participants to suggest such price levels threaten to destroy the R-PET market as they fear a repeat of 2022’s disastrous price volatility. Europe acetic acid, VAM contract talks for March focus on supply disruption March negotiations are underway for European acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) contract pricing with security of supply a key influence on negotiations amid LyondellBasell’s force majeure in the US and other disruptions to global trade flows. Caution caps optimism as peak season arrives for Europe styrene market Spot activity in the Europe styrene market was moderate in the week ended 8 March, as players attended a key industry event, while cautious and conservative sentiment persisted alongside crosswinds from ongoing demand weakness and thin liquidity, high feedstock costs and reduced availability. Participants pointed to only slight improvements in demand and market optimism from levels seen in 2023. Europe cracker margins up on firmer ethylene, co-products pricing Cracker margins in Europe rose in the week on the back of firmer ethylene and co-product pricing, ICIS Margin Analysis showed on Monday.

18-Mar-2024

Singapore February petrochemical exports fall 1.8%; NODX slips 0.1%

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore's petrochemical exports in February fell by 1.8% year on year to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.06bn ($791m) , reversing the 8.7% expansion in the preceding month, official data showed on Monday. The country's overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX) slipped by 0.1% year on year to S$13.0bn in February, reversing the 16.7% expansion in the previous month, Enterprise Singapore data showed. Non-electronic NODX, which includes petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals, fell by 1.5% year on year to S$10.1bn in February, in sharp contrast with the 21.1% increase posted in January. Overall NODX to seven out of Singapore's top 10 markets fell in February, but shipments to Hong Kong, US and Indonesia rose. Source: Enterprise Singapore Singapore is a major manufacturer and exporter of petrochemicals in southeast Asia. Its petrochemicals hub Jurong Island houses more than 100 global chemical firms, including energy majors ExxonMobil and Shell. EXTERNAL HEADWINDS WEIGH ON MANUFACTURING The weaker trade data for February follows the drop in Singapore's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which eased to 50.6 from 50.7 in January. The lower PMI reading was partly due to the Lunar New Year holidays in February, according to the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM). A year-on-year recovery in Singapore’s manufacturing sector will be partly due to a low-base effect this year, given the downturn in 2023, according to UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. However, the month-on-month momentum could remain fundamentally weak in the first half of 2024 as external demand continues to be weighed down by global headwinds, it said in a note earlier this month. Tight financial conditions stemming from an elevated interest rate environment in the US and EU, and ongoing stresses in the property sector in China continue to dampen consumer and business sentiment. "Towards the middle of 2024, signs of a broader recovery in manufacturing could emerge as central banks in major advanced economies may begin to lower policy rates as inflation in their respective economies moderate and inch closer to the 2% objective, with the consequent easing of financial conditions supporting consumption and investment activity, implying a gradual recovery in external demand," UOB said. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman ($1 = S$1.34) Thumbnail image: A view of Brani terminal port in Singapore, 22 November 2023. (HOW HWEE YOUNG/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

18-Mar-2024

BLOG: China average LLDPE net imports could be just 300,000 tonnes/yr in 2024-2030

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: In the third of series on China’s increasing petrochemicals self-sufficiency, I examine scenarios for the country’s linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) net imports in 2024-2030. The ICIS Base Case sees China’s LLDPE demand growth averaging 4% a year in 2024-2030 with the average annual operating rate at 73%. This would leave net imports at a healthy annual average of 6.5m tonnes. Last year, net imports were 5.9m tonnes. Demand growth at just 4% would compare with actual average annual demand growth of 13% in 1992-2023 and an operating rate of 91%. But I believe that because of China’s demographic and debt challenges, its petrochemicals demand growth is likely to fall to 1-3% per year. For argument’s sake, let’s assume 1.5% growth for LLDPE in 2023-2040, the middle of this range. Let’s also assume that China runs its plants at an annual average of 83% while adding 4.4m tonnes/year of unconfirmed capacity as part of its self-sufficiency drive. Under this Downside 1 Scenario, average annual net imports would fall to 1.8m tonnes. Downside Scenario 2 again sees demand growth averaging 1.5% per year and 4.4m tonnes/year of unconfirmed capacity coming onstream, but the operating rate averaging 91% a year – the same as the historic average. Net imports would fall to an annual average of just 300,000 tonnes. Under the two Downsides, China would remain in big net import positions in 2024-2026 before reaching close to balanced positions in 2027-2028 and then small net exports in the remaining two years of the decade. There are some people out there who argue that this is just another cyclical downturn, albeit an extended one. The ICIS data consistently suggests otherwise. I believe we are instead seeing a radical shift in how our industry behaves. This means an equally radical shift in business models to a greater focus on the end-users of petrochemicals, on sustainability and on growth opportunities in the developing world outside China. For details on the practical and detailed implications for your company, contact me at john.richardson@icis.com. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

18-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 March 2024. INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Mar-24 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. INSIGHT: Policies announced in China Two Sessions will impact domestic petchems market in 2024 By Jimmy Zhang 14-Mar-24 23:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's Two Sessions earlier this month – the yearly meetings where its legislature sets laws and its advisory body offers policy recommendations – attracted attention from the market for the growth targets set and announcements on expected future economic development. According to Premier Li Qiang, China's GDP growth target is “around 5.0%”. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Mar-24 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Asia caustic soda market could be underpinned by snug supply, limited vessel space By Jonathan Chou 13-Mar-24 15:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's liquid caustic soda spot supply may remain snug in the near term, while demand could continue its gradual growth into the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. PODCAST: China Group III base oils market sees supply, demand changes By Whitney Shi 12-Mar-24 15:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS Senior Industry Analyst Whitney Shi and ICIS Assistant Industry Analyst Jady Ma talk about supply and demand changes in China’s Group III base oils market. Saudi Aramco '23 profit falls on softer crude; ’24 focus on downstream growth By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Mar-24 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2023 fell by 24.7% to Saudi riyal (SR) 454.8bn ($121.3bn), weighed by weaker crude oil prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins.

18-Mar-2024

INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. IVL plant closures likely to focus on PTA – sources Tariff barriers dampen growth prospects for China PTA, PET exports China pins hopes on Belt and Road Initiative for new markets IVL cited overcapacity in China as one of the principal reasons for its new strategy – to procure cheaper feedstock from Asia, instead of running integrated facilities in the US. “A large portion of the refineries in the West are aged and losing their competitiveness. These facilities are expected to gradually close in the future,” ICIS senior analyst Jimmy Zhang said. The Thai company is the largest global PET resin producer with a 20% global market share and operates 147 production facilities in 35 countries, with its sales footprint covering over 100 countries in six regions – North America, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and South America. IVL 2.0 CALLS FOR SHUTDOWN OF SOME PTA UNITS Globally, IVL has a total production capacity of around 19m tonnes/year, the bulk of which or 67% are in combined PET business, which covers integrated PET, specialty chemicals and packaging, according to Thai investment research firm Innovest Securities. Integrated olefins derivatives account for 21% of the total capacity, while fibres have a share of 12%, it added. Market players said that in the US, IVL may prioritize shutting down PTA units over monoethylene glycol (MEG) units, whose production costs are still competitive compared with other global producers, thanks to their use of shale gas. “Given the current economic and market conditions, it is a wise decision to sell the assets which could not make money to ‘save its life’,” a trader in Asia said. In Asia, IVL currently operates three PTA assets – two in Thailand and one in Indonesia. According to market sources, the company could potentially mothball one of its less cost-effective PTA units in Thailand due to old age and technical issuSes. Its operations in Indonesia can better serve India, benefitting from competitive freight rates to IVL’s key market in Asia, they said. For now, IVL’s PTA plants in Asia still hold a unique export advantage in the south Asian country, as they are certified by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). This certification was mandated by India late last year. Currently, no Chinese PTA producers have obtained BIS certification, reducing competition for IVL from Chinese imports. Origin swaps for PTA have taken place, with lower priced China cargoes being exported into southeast Asia as well as their downstream PET asset in Egypt. This enables Indorama to push for more exports to India at a much better price netback. This will unlikely change unless China PTA producers are able to obtain the BIS certification from India. Under its new masterplan dubbed “IVL 2.0”, IVL said that it will be reviewing six operating assets in the ‘West’ for potential shutdown, as it seeks to boost competitiveness. Including the Corpus Christi Polymers (CCP) joint venture project with Alpek and Far Eastern New Century (FENC) whose construction was halted, the number of projects under review total seven. IVL chief Aloke Lohia said that feedstock prices in Western markets are expected to increase over time as peak oil demand draws closer and refineries shut down, while the reverse will occur in emerging Asian markets as capacity rises, driving feedstock costs lower. The rise in refining capacity in China and India allows IVL to buy petrochemical feedstocks cheaper than they could produce them domestically,  Lohia had told ICIS. CHINA CAN FILL IN IVL PTA NEEDS China has the ability to export PTA at much lower cost amid a domestic oversupply, with the country’s annual production capacity now at more than 70m tonnes, only a small fraction of which – around 3m tonnes – are shipped abroad, according to the ICIS Supply & Demand Database. Over the years, China has continually increased its capacity across the entire polyester chain, granting Chinese producers a significant advantage in integration and scale for paraxylene (PX), PTA and PET, Zhang said. The country is now a major PTA exporter and has swung from being the world’s biggest net importer of polyester fibres and PET resins (bottle and film grade) to being the biggest net exporter, ICIS senior Asia consultant John Richardson said. But trade barriers in several countries hamper imports from China, raising the likelihood of “more barter trading activities” in the future, Zhang said. He is referring to a process in which Chinese cargoes will move to a duty-free country, which, in turn, will re-sell the volumes. With the change of origin, the cargoes can then be sold to markets with existing trade barriers to China duty free. “For example, it is likely that China will export more PTA to South Korea, while South Korea will export more PTA to other countries who set trading barriers for China,” Zhang said. CHINA CHANGES APPROACH TO TRADEWith anti-dumping investigations curtailing direct exports of PET to certain markets, China is moving away from western markets, shifting its focus on those covered by free-trade agreements within its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). The country’s PET export market has shrunk since mid-2023 after the EU started anti-dumping investigations, with provisional duties on Chinese material activated in November of the same year. Anti-dumping investigations against Chinese PET, meanwhile, are ongoing in Mexico in North America and South Korea in Asia. China is expanding free-trade agreements (FTAs) with Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and non-BRI member countries to counter growing geopolitical differences with the west, potentially leading to a shift in trading patterns as Chinese apparel and non-apparel production moves offshore to these nations, ICIS’ Richardson said. Overseas plants could be supplied by China-made polyester fibres, allowing the country to retain dominance in the global polyester value chain and offset rising labour costs, Richardson said. “Offshoring to the developing world may also enable China to make up for any lost exports of finished polyester-products to the West due to increased trade tensions,” Richardson added. China had signed 21 free trade agreements with 28 countries and regions as of August 2023, according to the Chinese state-owned Xinhua news agency. More than 80 countries and international organizations had subscribed to the “initiative on promoting unimpeded trade cooperation along the Belt and Road”, which is part of the BRI, it said. Source: Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) Insight article by Nurluqman Suratman With contributions from Judith Wang and Samuel Wong Thumbnail image: Canal Container Transport, Huai'an, China – 12 March 2024 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

15-Mar-2024

Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA

LONDON (ICIS)–Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Q1 crude oil demand is likely to be higher than the agency initially forecast on the back of a stronger economic outlook for the US, which is likely to buoy total consumption growth for the period to 1.7 million bbl/day. A stronger early 2024 demand forecast drove a 120,000 bbl/day increase in full-year estimates, with the IEA now projecting 1.3 million bbl/day consumption growth. The IEA projection remains substantially below OPEC forecasts of 2.2 million bbl/day, but it has repeatedly increased its projections, growing 400,000 bbl/day from the agency’s 900,000 bbl/day forecast in October 2023. Supply declined quarter on quarter in January-March as demand firmed, dropping 870,000 bbl/day during the period on the back of extreme weather disruptions and voluntary output curbs from OPEC+. The cartel and its partners recently announced plans to extend curbs into the second quarter of the year, with the IEA saying in its latest oil market report that the baseline assumption is now for those measures to remain in place through 2024. “On that basis, our balance for the year shifts from a surplus to a slight deficit, but oil tanks may get some relief as the massive volumes of oil on water reach their final destination,” the IEA said. Declining onshore oil inventories, along with trade dislocations from Russia and the impact of Middle East tensions on ocean trade flows has substantially shifted the balance of reserves towards ‘oil on water’, according to the IEA. Repeated attacks on tankers in the Red Sea intensified this trend last month, with 1.9 billion barrels of oil ocean-bound as of the end of February, according to the IEA, the second-highest figure since the height of the pandemic. Despite growing 2024 demand expectations over the last few months, the IEA continues to project that oil consumption is reverting back to its historical trend as the pandemic-era rebound tapers off and electric vehicle sales grow. Non-OECD countries are expected to comprise the vast majority of consumption growth this year, but demand from China is expected to crater, although it will remain the most pivotal sales driver for the industry. “[China’s] oil demand growth slows from 1.7 million bbl/day in 2023 to 620,000 bbl/day in 2024, or from roughly three-quarters to half of the global total, under the gathering weight of a challenging economic environment and slower expansion in its petrochemical sector,” the IEA added. The agency estimates that the OPEC+ bloc had 5.72 million bbl/day of effective spare capacity compared to February, with 5.34 million bbl/day of that total from the core OPEC member states. One country, Saudi Arabia, accounted for more than half of total OPEC+ spare capacity, at 3.12 million barrels. Focus articled by Tom Brown. Thumbnail photo source: Photo source: Jose Bula Urrutia/Eyepix Group/Shutterstock

14-Mar-2024

ICIS Foresight – Base Oil Asia-Pacific

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