Free trial: 15 min Intra-day Forecast, German Power
The ICIS intra-day forecast is extremely accurate and even simple hypothetical trading strategies enabled high trading profits last year.
See the benefits for yourself with a free, two-month trial to the ICIS intra-day auction forecast and access three daily forecast runs.
The European Daily Electricity Markets report supplies market participants with in-depth coverage of Europe's power sector.
The coverage includes independent price assessments, indices and analysis on the latest market developments, fundamentals data and daily news stories.
The power package add-on includes further commentary and exchange prices for coal and European carbon markets, as well as analysis of fuel switching trends
Updated to Q4 2017
European electricity markets are nervous going into the winter of 2017 with supply-side risks related to French nuclear production, low hydropower stocks in southern and eastern parts of the continent and high global coal prices all giving market participants cause for concern. Supply will pick up quarter on quarter however as winter consumption, which must be met minute by minute, ramps up. The impact of coal prices in particular could lift the overall price of electricity because coal-fired power, although on the way to being phased out in Europe, is still vital for meeting high demand over the winter months.
As is always the case, demand will be key to system security over the winter. The timing of any cold snap – whether it hits Europe before or after the New Year, or sometimes on either side – can influence how comfortable the electricity system is when coping. An earlier cold snap can cause issues if followed by another later in the season.
Power Perspective is an online tool designed to put power market developments into perspective regarding their price impact. Our experts analyse the cross-border impact of national developments and provide you with a roadmap of market drivers throughout Europe. This empowers you to develop the most profitable strategy for your business.
Our solution enables you to:
Highly accurate price forecasts and HPFCs for all trading horizons on the German power market – Intraday, day-ahead and long term. The ICIS price forecasts combine a range of modelling techniques, including regression and neural network approaches, to accurately forecast prices in all situations.
ICIS forecasts for national demand deliver highest accuracy by processing an unusually high number of input variables without overfitting, including highest resolution weather data.
Hourly Price Forward Curves for the German power market model the effect of increasing renewable capacity on price shapes. The forward-looking HPFCs are built using the superior ICIS spot price model and give you the opportunity to identify real business risks and value assets reliably.
This complimentary annual report helps you understand what is happening in key European traded power markets. The report has separate chapters for each of the European power markets, including key markets as well as developing markets (i.e. Greece, Bulgaria, Romania etc). Each chapter looks at the following topics: state of the OTC market; counterparties; price driver; supply & demand; trading forums; data transparency; future outlook. There is also an executive summary covering all markets.
Our monthly European Clean Energy Markets report provides readers with second-to-none renewable power price assessments, pricing information on the over-the-counter ROCs market and Nordics’ renewable Elcertificates and as well as market commentary and key news stories.
The report recognises the importance of the renewable energy industry – not just in the UK, but all across Europe – ensuring readers have access to a comprehensive view of what’s happening across the markets and the reasons for the changes.
The ICIS Power Index (IPI) gives homes and businesses an insight into price trends on the UK wholesale electricity market. Robust energy markets are vital to the UK economy, and the IPI makes electricity price trends and activity more visible and accessible to household consumers and commercial buyers, as well as media and policy-makers.
The IPI is published daily by ICIS, an independent authority on UK electricity market pricing, and is available at no charge.
The IPI shows movements on the most liquid contracts for forward delivery on the UK electricity market, removing the impact of seasonality and weighted to reflect real consumption.
The IPI methodology details how this index is calculated.
The IPI will enable energy users, buyers, media and policymakers to answer the question “have wholesale energy prices risen or fallen over the last year?”
Specifically, the IPI shows the average daily price for electricity delivered over the next summer and winter in pounds per megawatt hours (£/MWh), weighted to show the extra demand for electricity in winter.
By accounting for a full year of delivery, the IPI will show the ‘real’ picture for energy price movements across the market – rather than price ‘rises’ based on greater demand during winter, with colder weather and shorter days, or price ‘falls’ because of lower demand in summer.
The IPI shows energy price trends in the UK wholesale market, but not how particular tariffs would be affected, or individual companies’ profit margins. This is similar to a stock market index like the FTSE 100, which shows trends across the market, but does not necessarily reflect the share price movements of an individual company.
Active wholesale markets are important in reaching a fair market value for UK electricity, and the IPI also shows how much electricity is trading for the front two seasons each day. As a result, the volumes used in the IPI indicate the level of participation in the wholesale market.
The UK’s electricity consumption is bought and sold many times over on the forward electricity markets, as buyers meet sellers to trade and manage their risk over many delivery timescales.
On any given day, there are various ways and places to buy wholesale electricity. Buyers and sellers can also trade wholesale electricity for use on different days, weeks, months, seasons or years. These prices can display a large degree of correlation, but they can also differ greatly. Short-term, daily prices may react to a short-term problem – such as a power station shutting down – but this may have no impact on the cost of electricity delivered on a long-term contract.
These differences often lead to debate over the ‘right’ wholesale price – and more importantly, whether the average price is moving up or down. For example, one person might discuss price trends for longer-term contract deliveries – such as the six-month contract for the next season – while another might refer to the price for electricity delivered each day, which is more volatile.
The IPI is designed to act as a neutral, independent indicator of wholesale market movements.
The IPI also demonstrates the UK electricity market at work, enabling non-industry participants to see price trends at a glance, based on real trading activity reflected by other price benchmarks in use within the industry.
The Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania make up the 4M market coupling project. These nations have experienced an increase in traded volume over the last few months compared to last year. In Romania, however, a surge in January liquidity was followed by a sharp drop in traded volume.
This infographic shows the year-on-year changes in OTC traded volume across the 4M markets and the reasons for these changes.
This ICIS infographic examines which countries are on course to meet their 2020 target, along with the potential price impact, with a focus on France, Hungary, The Netherlands, Ireland and the EU as a whole.
ICIS sheds light on plans to merge Germany’s two natural gas hubs – NCG and GASPOOL - within five years and the issues that will dominate the market ahead of unification. Parallels to France where a full merger is also taking place are likely to be a useful guide on how smooth the transition could be, although a number of German-specific developments are likely to impact both the process and outcome of the hub unification.