ICIS is your go-to source for reliable forecasts for power trading

The ICIS price forecasts provide the highest accuracy by combining deep market knowledge with advanced quantitative modelling techniques. Enhance your trading and optimisation results with forecasts that consistently beat* the market.

ICIS Spot Price Forecast German Power

ICIS Spot Price Forecast German Power

Highly accurate price forecasts for portfolio managers, traders and analysts operating in the German day-ahead power market

The ICIS German Power Spot Price forecast is the preferred option of many power professionals for optimization and dispatch tasks as well as for power traders and analysts that want to beat* the market.

Very good fit of hourly shape many days into the future

Why use ICIS Spot Price Forecast for German Power?

  • Optimise your dispatching to maximise revenues and efficiency
  • Generate revenues and savings from flexibility options in your portfolio
  • Directly trade on a forecast that consistently beats* the market
  • Always be up to date with a forecast that is updated six times per day, including weekends
  • Get direct access to analysts to discuss your critical questions on the market
  • Ensure you have the best quality: multiple daily quality checks and continuously reviewed modeling techniques, inputs and weightings

Besides the price forecast, customers can also access demand, wind and solar forecasts used as inputs to our price modelling in the ICIS Power Analytics Platform.

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ICIS Price Forecast for the EPEX Spot Intraday Auction


ICIS price forecast for the EPEX spot intraday auction

Highly accurate price forecasts for portfolio managers, traders and analysts operating in the German day-ahead power market

The quality of the ICIS Price Forecast for the German Intraday Auction, measured in MAE (mean absolute error), is outstanding. In 2016 the ICIS forecast achieved an MAE of only 3.13€/ MWh on the extremely volatile 15-minutes prices.

Why use the ICIS Intraday Auction Forecast?

  • Optimise your dispatching to maximise revenues and efficiency
  • Generate revenues and savings from flexibility options in your portfolio
  • Directly trade on a forecast that consistently beats* the market
  • Take informed decisions when bidding in the 15 minutes intraday auction
  • Get direct access to analysts to discuss your critical questions on the market
  • Ensure you have the best quality: multiple daily quality checks and continuously reviewed modeling techniques, inputs and weightings

Intraday Auction Forecast

Cumulative profit

The ICIS Price Forecast for the 15 Minutes Intraday Auction is a very reliable and accurate forecast. In 2016 it would have enabled profits of 0.91€/MWh if trades were optimised between EXAA and EPEX. At a constant 1MW trading volume this amounted to over 8,000€ in profit.*


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ICIS Hourly Price Forward Curve – German Power

A HPFC that takes the effect of increasing renewables capacity on intraday price shapes into account

ICIS hourly price forward curve

Daily price shapes are changing

Higher solar production has offset the daily price minimum from the demand minimum, profile values have therefore changed significantly. This trend will continue in coming years.

Methodology

Price forward curve methodology For these reasons, the ICIS HPFC considers changes in renewable and conventional capacity, weather risks and the resulting effect on price shapes. ICIS generates hundreds of possible capacity and weather scenarios around base case assumptions and derives hourly shapes using the ICIS spot price forecasting model. All hourly shapes are combined to derive the base HPFC, which is arbitrage free to ICIS price assessments.

Why use the ICIS Hourly Price Forward Curve?

  • Accurately value contracts and portfolios
  • Focus on the most profitable customers
  • Identify risks involved in profiles by comparing contract values for different scenarios
  • Make strategic decisions even in times of changing market conditions
  • Get direct access to analysts to discuss your critical questions on the market
  • Determine daily profit and loss to assess your exposure to market prices

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* The ICIS spot price forecast was directionally correct in 55% (2015) and 54% (2016) of hours, and in 59% of 15 minutes (2016).

ICIS does not recommend trading strategies, but provides data services and analysis.

About ICIS

ICIS provides independent and robust pricing information for the global energy markets. Our comprehensive reports cover key markets including electricity, gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), carbon-emissions, renewable energy, coal and crude oil.

The team of market experts and editors follow the energy markets closely and report on prices, developments and news as they happen.

Our reports are valued by the financial community, producers, buyers and suppliers in the energy industry. They rely on ICIS reports for independent pricing data that helps to strengthen their position in price negotiations, understand price movements and reasons behind them and to analyse the supply/demand dynamics of the global energy markets.

What's included in the price forecast?

  • Price forecasts day ahead until d+6 (intraday auction until d+3)
  • Proprietary solar and wind forecasts for multiple European countries
  • Proprietary demand forecasts for multiple European countries
  • Outage alerts (push service available)
  • Analyst updates on special occasions
  • Access to analysts to discuss pressing issues

What’s included in the HPFC

  • Hourly price forward curve for 3 years (base HPFC)
  • 100 forward curve scenarios to capture risks of price profiles
  • All forward curves arbitrage free to ICIS price assessments

What our customers say about ICIS

“We tested a range of forecast providers and the ICIS spot price forecast was by far the best.”
Trader, International Utility