Benzene

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US “reciprocal” tariffs are prompting a shift of trade flows and supply chains as market players in Asia seek alternative export outlets for some chemicals, while overall demand remains tepid amid growing fears of a global recession. US-China trade war 2.0 keeps market players on edge Regional traders wary amid US’ 90-day tariff suspension SE Asia prepares for US trade talks as China president visits Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia Trades across the equities and commodities markets last week have been highly volatile since the start of April in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, the highest of which was imposed on China. The higher-than-expected tariffs sparked concerns over a possible global recession that sent crude prices slumping last week, dragging down downstream aromatics products such as benzene and toluene. Trump had raised the reciprocal tariffs for China three times in as many days – from 34%, to 84% and to 125% on 9-11 April – with China responding in kind. Including the combined 20% tariffs imposed in the past two months, the US’ effective additional tariffs for China stand at 145%. In the polyethylene (PE) market, prices are softening as US-bound export orders shrink, while polypropylene (PP) exports from China to southeast Asia look set to decline. Most polyolefin players in Asia and beyond are currently attending the 37th International Exhibition on Plastics and Rubber Industries (Chinaplas) in Shenzhen, China, which will run up to 18 April. Some China-based market players said the event could provide them an opportunity to explore alternative markets by deepening their relationships with buyers in southeast Asia. Exports of chemicals and plastics used in automobiles to the US, meanwhile, are likely to shrink as well amid auto tariffs from the world’s biggest economy. Apart from PP, exports nylon, butadiene (BD), and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) to the US are expected to decline. Trump, on 14 April, said he is considering possible exemptions to his 25% tariffs on imported automobiles and parts. His tariffs on all car imports took effect on 3 April, while those on automotive parts will take place no later than 3 May. The automotive sector is a major downstream industry for petrochemicals. China’s PE imports from the US spiked in early 2025 but this is expected to reverse sharply because of the trade war between the two countries. However, China has a substantial number of naphtha and coal-based PE plants starting up in 2025 with a combined PE capacity of more than 8 million tonnes, which should reduce the country’s dependence on imports. The US will also need to redirect surplus PE to alternative markets amid dwindling Chinese demand. Market players expect demand in the second quarter to be worse than the first three months of 2025 amid hefty US reciprocal tariffs hanging over countries in Asia when Trump’s three-month pause lapses. Implementation of the US’ reciprocal tariffs were suspended on 9 April, for 90 days, providing some reprieve to about 60 countries, except China. Freight rates between China and the US have already decreased due to the trade war as demand evaporates. However, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) prices in India are bucking the general downtrend and have firmed up as the chemical is not directly subjected to US tariffs. VAM is primarily used in the production of adhesives, textiles, paints and coatings. SE ASIA PREPARE TRADE TALKS The 10-member ASEAN group pledged that they will not impose retaliatory tariffs on the US following an emergency meeting, opting to negotiate with the US. Among the nations scheduled for talks with the US are Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia – all of which were slapped with high tariffs of up to 46%. Thailand intends to scrutinize imports more thoroughly to prevent cheap imports from China entering the country, as the US has warned against such “third-country” methods of evading tariffs. Anti-dumping duties are also being considered by Malaysia and Indonesia against China to counter an expected rise in cheap imports to their countries. Trade flows are still expected to change as China steps up talks and partnerships with the EU, as well as with southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia. While several Asian nations are lining up for discussions with the US government, China and the US have yet to schedule a meeting, heightening concerns of economic headwinds in the coming year. Singapore has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to between 0-2% on account of the US-China trade war, and other countries are expected to follow suit. Before the pause on reciprocal tariffs, the World Trade Organization (WTO) had forecast trade growth to contract by 1.0% in 2025, from 3.0% previously. Meanwhile, China President Xi Jinping is currently in southeast Asia – with state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia – up to 18 April, to forge stronger economic ties with its Asian neighbors amid an escalating trade war with the US. China posted an annualized Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, unchanged form the previous quarter, while there is a consensus that the Asian economic giant would weaken from Q2 onward. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Additional reporting by Samuel Wong, Izham Ahamd, Jackie Wong, Hwee Hwee Tan, Joanne Wang, Lucy Shuai, Jonathan Chou, Angeline Soh, Melanie Wee, Shannen Ng and Josh Quah

16-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 11 April. UPDATE: Oil, Asia chemical shares extend rout on recession fears By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Apr-25 16:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices tumbled by more than $2/barrel on Monday, with shares of petrochemical firms in the region falling on heightened concerns that a brewing global trade war could lead to an economic recession. Vietnam Q1 GDP growth slows to 6.98% ahead of Trump's tariffs By Jonathan Yee 07-Apr-25 17:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam’s economy expanded by 6.93% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 but looming reciprocal tariffs has dampened its growth outlook for the rest of the year. Asia petrochemical market players pause discussions amid Trump tariff uncertainties By Jonathan Yee 07-Apr-25 16:59 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Market players across petrochemical markets are pausing discussions as they await clarity on the US' ‘reciprocal’ tariff enforcement and potential retaliatory measures from affected countries. Hefty tariffs to slow China’s chemical capacity expansion By Fanny Zhang 07-Apr-25 17:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies is expected to exacerbate China’s chemical overcapacity as demand could weaken further, while higher costs stemming from tit-for-tat tariffs would slow down capacity expansion in the country. PODCAST: Impact of US tariffs on aromatics trade flows from Asia By Damini Dabholkar 07-Apr-25 19:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The announcement of import tariffs by the Trump administration is likely to see a shift in aromatics trade flows from Asia, especially given the disparity in tariff rates on different countries. China petrochemical futures extend losses on latest US tariff threats By Fanny Zhang 08-Apr-25 13:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets were mostly lower on Tuesday morning, extending their losses from previous session amid worries over an escalating trade war with the US. INSIGHT: China expands carbon market; hydrogen key to decarbonize steel sector By Patricia Tao 08-Apr-25 16:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has officially included its steel sector in the national carbon emissions trading system, a major step toward greening one of its most carbon-intensive industries. Asia glycerine supply ample as US-bound exports to decline amid trade war By Helen Yan 08-Apr-25 15:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's glycerine market is facing more supply than expected, with regional suppliers seeking other outlets outside of the US, following the tariffs launched by the US on imports from southeast Asia. INSIGHT: Trade war may affect China PP demand more than supply By Lucy Shuai 08-Apr-25 18:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–With the escalation of the US-China trade war, it is expected that the impact on demand for China's polypropylene (PP) will be greater than on supply. South Korea ups emergency funding support for embattled auto sector By Nurluqman Suratman 09-Apr-25 12:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea on Wednesday announced emergency measures to support its export-reliant automotive industry in response to a 25% US tariff on vehicles and parts which will take effect on 10 April. INSIGHT: Confusion and anxiety hit Asia oleochemicals market amid US tariffs By Helen Yan 09-Apr-25 16:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s oleochemicals market is characterized by confusion and anxiety following the steeper-than-expected tariffs launched by the US Trump administration on oleochemicals imports into the US. Asia benzene sinks to lowest daily price in over four years By Angeline Soh 09-Apr-25 19:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia benzene import prices on a free on board (FOB) South Korea basis fell to their daily lowest in more than four years. ICIS China March petrochemical index falls; hefty tariffs to hit demand hard By Yvonne Shi 10-Apr-25 13:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index in end-March fell to 1,121.73, down by 3.1% from end-February, with the US-China trade war likely to weigh heavily on overall demand in both the domestic and export markets. INSIGHT: New China PE capacity may cover US supply loss amid trade tensions By Joanne Wang 10-Apr-25 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polyethylene (PE) market demand faces significant challenges following the US’ continued imposition of tariffs, with domestic prices of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) down by 4% so far this week on expectations of new capacity coming online. US ethanol exports to Philippines expected to remain duty free; tariff on Brazil increased By Evangeline Chueng 10-Apr-25 17:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US ethanol exports to the Philippines are expected to remain unaffected by the recent tariff changes, as the country has maintained duty-free access since 2016. INSIGHT: China-US tariffs altering Asia olefins supply and demand balance By Joey Zhou 10-Apr-25 18:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Market dynamics for Asia propylene prices in Q2 2025, originally trending bearish amid long supply from China, are shifting on the back of US tariff policy and its impact. Uncertainty remains the watch-word in this market. Asia petrochemical shares drop as US tariffs on imports from China hit 145% By Jonathan Yee 11-Apr-25 10:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian chemical shares fell on Friday amid deepening concerns over a global trade war after the White House clarified that the US' tariffs on China has risen to 145%. INSIGHT: India anchors PVC future amid global market re-alignment By Aswin Kondapally 11-Apr-25 15:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s vinyl industry is entering a new era of accelerated growth and global relevance as it emerges as the single-largest contributor to global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand expansion, even as the broader chemical industry faces overcapacity and trade re-alignments.

14-Apr-2025

NEW YORK (ICIS)–2 April 2025 – dubbed ‘Liberation Day’ by US President Trump – saw a sweeping and substantial salvo of reciprocal tariffs, with a baseline tariff set at 10% but for many countries, much higher customized levels. The higher reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on 9 April, with the baseline 10% tariff imposed on 5 April. However, as of 8 April, there is emerging optimism on the potential for trade deals following comments from US President Trump that South Korea and China want to make a deal, and from administration officials that the US is in discussions with a number of countries. The reciprocal tariff levels – which include 34% on China, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 32% on Taiwan, 26% on India, 25% on South Korea and 24% on Japan – were very much higher than anticipated. For China, 34% in reciprocal tariffs to come into effect on 9 April would be on top of the previous 20% tariffs the US implemented in February (10%) and March (10%), catapulting additional US tariffs on China this year to 54%. Products that fall under US sectoral tariffs, such as 25% on autos and auto parts, in effect since 5 April, will be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. Products flagged for upcoming sectoral tariffs – pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber and copper – will also be exempt from reciprocal tariffs. For Canada and Mexico, the US 25% tariff will remain in place, but only for non-USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) compliant imports. DIRECT IMPACT ON US CHEMICAL MARKETSTariffs will undoubtedly raise costs for the US chemical industry and its customers, in the form of logistics, feedstocks and components such as additives and catalysts. For certain product chains where the US is self-sufficient, the direct impact should be somewhat limited. For example, Canada is the dominant exporter of chemicals and plastics to the US, but these are primarily in the olefins chain – polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), propylene and ethylene glycol (EG) – where the US is more than self-sufficient and a big net exporter. These should also be USMCA compliant and thus exempt from tariffs. Even if there was a disruption, US producers in the US Gulf Coast could ship more volumes of ethylene and propylene derivatives domestically, replacing imports from Canada – although at higher logistics costs to some locations. The aromatics chain is more complicated. The US is a large net importer of benzene, toluene, xylenes and paraxylene (PX) – the bulk of which comes from South Korea, which is being hit with a 25% reciprocal tariff. The EU also exports aromatics to the US and will be subject to a 20% tariff. The US is a major importer of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) with China and the EU as major suppliers. With 20% in additional tariffs imposed on all China exports in two stages – February (10%) and March (10%) – on top of the existing 25% tariff on China MDI, the US tariff on MDI from China is 45%. Adding the 34% reciprocal tariff brings this to a whopping 79% tariff level by 9 April. US EXPORTS IN CROSSHAIRS FOR RETALIATIONThe bigger risk to the US is for chemical and plastics exports. The US runs a chemical trade surplus of over $30 billion, according to the American Chemistry Council. Already China has announced a 34% tariff on all US imports to go into effect 10 April, while the EU prepares €18 billion in tariffs that would go into effect 15 April. The latter, which is in retaliation for US steel and aluminium tariffs, includes US PE and other polymers and chemicals. Even as the US is a much larger goods importer than exporter, particularly with China, it is the reverse for the US chemical industry, which will bear the brunt of the impact. “US goods exports to China in 2024 were $143.55 billion. The US imports far more – $462.64 billion – but this will have an impact on the US chemical industry as we compete against producers in the Middle East and elsewhere in Asia,” said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. “This is the first large retaliatory challenge. Let’s hope it doesn’t devolve into a swirling beggar-thy-neighbor trade war,” he added. The new China 34% tariff on imports from the US could result in a $34 billion falloff in US exports of all goods to the nation – about a 24% decline, according to an analysis by Swift. Since 2018, the year that the first US-China trade war kicked off by the first Trump administration, US commodity chemical net exports have surged 88% to 2024, and are thus far more exposed to retaliatory tariffs than ever before. During this period, US exports of commodity chemicals and polymers to the world have increased 28% while imports declined 5%, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. Top US chemical and polymers exports are linear low density PE (LLDPE), high density PE (HDPE), EG, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), caustic soda, methanol, low density PE (LDPE), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), polypropylene (PP) and styrene. If China puts an additional 34% import tariff on US PE, the economics for exports do not work, even with the substantial US cost advantage. “With a 34% tariff on top of the current 6.5% tariff, US PE margins go negative at current production costs. US PE demand has been weak so far this year, particularly exports, down 8.1% year on year,” said Harrison Jacoby, director of PE at ICIS. “We see rebalancing of trade – less US PE into China, more to Europe. The industry already saw the start of this trend in 2024, with more US PE shifting from China to Europe. Now we need to see how Europe reacts on 13 April with its proposed retaliation targeting US PE, if they will increase their current 6.5% duty,” he added. In retaliation for US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports that took effect on 12 March, the EU plans a new round of tariffs on around €18 billion of imports from the US, which includes high density PE (HDPE), linear low density PE (LLDPE) and low density PE (LDPE) along with a range of plastics and rubber products. This would be implemented in mid-April following a consultation period. The US is also a major exporter of PE to Europe. Total US PE exports to China and Europe were 32% of total US PE exports in 2024, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. “The big picture is there are two low-cost PE regions that are the only net exporters – the US and Canada and the Middle East. These regions will continue to fill global production shortfalls, optimizing to mitigate the impact of tariffs,” said Jacoby. However, demand growth is likely to fall as a trade war will only further weaken demand for all goods and services, he added. Retaliatory tariffs on key US chemical exports could also have ripple effects throughout the chain. For example, retaliatory tariffs on US PE could lower cracker operating rates, in turn reducing crude C4 (CC4) feedstock coming out of those crackers for butadiene (BD) production. “I am concerned about impacts on our suppliers and customers. If there’s an impact on the ethylene industry which causes rate reductions because exports [of derivatives such as PE] get tougher, that would have an indirect effect on our supply of CC4s,” said Ed Dineen, CEO of BD producer TPC Group, in an interview with ICIS at the International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). HIT TO KEY END MARKETSKey chemical end markets such as housing, automotive and durable goods will be burdened with higher costs with these reciprocal tariffs. Demand in these sectors has already been struggling for more than two years. “The economic law of demand holds that as prices of a good rise, demand for the good will fall,” said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. US sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium, in effect since March, will add nearly $1,500 to the cost of a light vehicle and result in lower sales for the automotive industry, he estimated. This would push down sales by about 525,000 units if the cost is fully pushed through, said Swift. In addition, 25% sectoral tariffs on autos and auto parts will put further upward pressure on pricing, in turn lowering demand further. The ultimate price impact, and not just for automotive, will also depend on consumer demand. It is likely the higher costs from tariffs will be shared by producers, suppliers and consumers. Housing costs are also poised to rise, with sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum, and signaled tariffs on lumber and copper, along with reciprocal tariffs that will cover other imported goods such as vinyl floors, furniture, carpets and appliances. Consumer confidence is unlikely to improve anytime soon. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading in March for future expectations plunged 9.6 points, to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March as consumers were concerned about high prices and the impact of tariffs. One silver lining is that other countries may lower their tariffs and trade barriers in response to US reciprocal tariffs, opening markets for US exports and in turn leading to the US lowering its reciprocal tariff levels. WALL STREET CUTS EARNINGS ESTIMATESIn the meantime, Wall Street is making sizeable cuts to US chemical company profit forecasts, with tariffs expected to squeeze margins in the form of higher costs as well as lower demand. “Uncertainty over tariffs has weakened US PE/PP trading volumes and we expect shifts in trade flows to create near-term negative supply chain/production impacts, which could be negative for Q1,” said UBS analyst Joshua Spector in a 7 April research note. “We are lowering estimates and price targets to better reflect a global [slowdown] that spills into 2026 and 2027,” said Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander in a 7 April research note. “While we could easily be proven wrong by a couple of tweets (either escalating further or shifting from dramatic action to symbolism, bluff and rhetoric), we are adjusting our framework to reflect the current state of policy,” said Alexander. THE BIG PICTUREUltimately, US President Trump aims to engineer a “once in a hundred year pendulum shift” in the global economy and geopolitical order, said Rana Foroohar, global business columnist at the Financial Times, at the IPC hosted by the AFPM. “Tariffs are for real. Tariffs are here to stay…Trump sees the global economy as a giant gaming table, with the US consumer market as the biggest chip to put down. And he is going to use it in ways we haven’t seen in half a century, if not more,” said Foroohar. “This imbalance between Wall Street and Main Street – between the asset growth economy and the income-led economy – is really at the heart of what’s going on today…Cheaper is going away [and] place matters,” Foroohar added. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Infographics by Yashas Mudumbai Insight article by Joseph Chang and Yashas Mudumbai

08-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US polyurethane prices for toluene diisocyanate (TDI), methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and a variety of polyether and polyester polyols continue to see increase pressure as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). Because US domestic suppliers of polyurethane products expect a cascading inflationary effect of these tariffs, they are trying to price the cost of this inflation in new pricing offers for Q2. At the same time, these tariffs could hinder demand for polyurethane products in downstream industries such as automotive, construction, the comfort sector (furniture and bedding) and appliances. 25% TARIFFS RISK CAUSING DISRUPTION IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTORThe ongoing worldwide tariff conflict heightens the chances of the automobile sector experiencing a prolonged disruption phase. This could imply a halt in the production of several car models, increased prices for new vehicles, and production delays due to hurdles in product development for the subsequent years, experts say. Automotive seating consumes large volumes of TDI and flexible polyether polyols. Some analysts approximate that nearly one-third of North America's vehicle production could face reductions as a response to the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada imposed by US President Donald Trump. These cuts would be part of the automakers attempts to balance the escalated costs, and simultaneously, consumers might procrastinate their new car and truck purchases. Flavio Volpe, the President of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association (APMA), representing Canada's OEM suppliers within the global auto industry, has shared that Canadian car parts suppliers have funneled more than $10 billion into parts facilities situated across 26 US states. These plants employ up to 48,000 US workers, equating to the workforce of roughly 5-10 large car and truck factories. Focusing on Michigan, it alone houses 55 Canadian parts factories employing 17,000 US workers. TARIFFS MIGHT HINDER CONSTRUCTION SECTOR RECOVERYThe latest US housing starts numbers brought some hope for a recovery of the construction sector, which consumes a large amount of MDI and rigid polyols. Housing is a key end-use market for chemistry in the form of paints, wire insulation, house-wrap, sealants, roofing materials, resilient flooring, vinyl siding and related products. New housing also generates sales of appliances, furniture, carpet, fixtures and window treatments. In total, each start engenders on average over $13,000 worth of chemistry. After plunging 9.8% month on month in January amid harsh winter weather, US housing starts rebounded 11.2% in February to an adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million, according to US Census Bureau data. February’s increase was led by an 11.4% gain in the single-family segment, noted Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for Global Chemicals. This segment is more sensitive to interest rates and housing costs that affect affordability. It is also more plastics intensive than the multifamily segment. DEMAND FROM THE COMFORT SECTOR REMAINS WEAKPoor demand continues to plague the comfort sector (furniture and bedding), with the latest sales on President's Day not showing the traditional consumer interest the industry expected. The comfort sector consumes the largest volumes of TDI and flexible polyether polyols. There is hope that demand might recover in the second half of the year. Labor Day is traditionally the strongest sales day of the year for furniture and bedding items. However, the latest consumer sentiment data does not bode well for expectations on consumer expenditures, which make up 70% of the US GDP. US consumer sentiment fell nearly 11% month on month in March amid ongoing economic policy and tariff uncertainties and inflation fears. The Michigan “Index of Consumer Sentiment” fell to 57.9 points in March, from 64.7 in February, according to preliminary results of the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer survey. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is down 22% from December 2024. FLAME RETARDANTS FACE RISK OF SUBSTANTIAL INCREASESExpectations of further tariff increases are also feeding concerns about the rise of cost of flame retardants used in various polyurethane foams in the US. Case in point is Tris (chloropropyl) phosphate (commonly abbreviated TCPP), a chlorinated organophosphate flame retardant commonly added to polyurethane foams. TCPP is currently imported from China, often in blended form, but it can also be purchased as a sole product. Its cost in the US is currently above $2/lb and rising, although it's still available in Canada for 58 cents/lb. The prospect for further increases on imported products is having market participants scrambling to find TCPP alternatives that are economically viable. According to sources, some alternatives currently under consideration are Triethyl Phosphate (TEP), a halogen free flame retardant, and Tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (also known as chlorinated Tris, TDCP, TDCPP or Fyrol FR-2). There are other flame retardants available as well, but the key is to be able to find a solution that is economically viable compared to the cost of TCPP. Compounding the problem, last December China limited the sales of flame-retardant precursor antimony for exports, since antimony is also a dual-use product that can end up in military applications. Since 2020, antimony prices have increased over 234%, according to data from the Institute for Rare Earths and Metals. ANTICIPATION OF TARIFFS INFLATIONARY EFFECT DRIVES SUPPLIERS TO OFFER HIGHER PRICESCurrent negotiations for April and Q2 polyurethane pricing are wrapping up amid continued efforts by suppliers to increase prices. Especially in the flexible polyol segment, domestic suppliers are mentioning "margin improvement" and "inflation adjustment" needs as the main rationale for these price increases, which in some cases have come on top of prior increases announced in February for March. Foamers are fighting these increases, which have been offered for MDI and TDI as well. Fundamentals do not seem to support these Q2 increase efforts. To begin with, downstream demand is not recovering any time soon. Second, there is plenty of product in the market despite some minor turnarounds in effect for MDI and TDI between mid-March and mid-Aril. Third, feedstock costs are not justifying price increases, either. All main polyurethane feedstocks such as propylene, benzene, toluene, ethylene glycol and 1,4 butanediol (BDO) are moving on downtrend trajectories. Rather than being an adjustment to market dynamics, these increase pressures find their rationale in inflationary expectations of these tariffs, which polyurethane suppliers seem to be taking for granted. Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Focus article by Umberto Torresan (Thumbnail shows polyurethane foam. Image by Shutterstock.)

21-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analyst Aviva Zhang analyzes the recent sharp fall in China's domestic styrene prices in March, and the potential impact of tight supply due to extensive plant maintenance. Lower costs driven by declining crude oil and benzene prices; market closely monitors crude fluctuations. East China styrene inventories transition from accumulation to drawdown; plant turnarounds expected to increase in March and April. Expanded polystyrene (EPS) producers maintain need-to-basis purchasing due to slow destocking and reduced operating rates. ICN

20-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Weak downstream demand, exacerbated by economic and geopolitical uncertainties, keeps sentiment bearish and buyers cautious across petrochemical markets in Asia. Sluggish demand to continue into Q2 amid oversupply China’s surging exports a concern among Asia producers China, South Korea prepare stimulus measures amid US tariffs REGIONAL PRODUCERS FEEL STRAIN China’s aggressive capacity expansion which led to increased exports has been exerting pressure on other Asian producers. For caprolactam (capro), the country turned into a net exporter in 2024, with shipments doubling from two years ago. This flood of Chinese exports has intensified regional competition, forcing capro plant closures in Japan and Thailand due to unsustainable margins. In the ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) market, massive capacity expansions in the next three years are projected to push China’s production capacity to 63% of the global total by 2027. As a result, the country’s EVA imports are likely to decline further, while exports are projected to continue increasing. In the naphtha market, supply constraints due to limited arbitrage cargoes and higher demand from new cracker start-ups in China and Indonesia have driven intermonth spreads to the highest levels seen in a year on 11 March. Refinery maintenance in China has also further restricted domestic naphtha supply, tightening overall availability in Asia. For aromatics such as benzene, toluene, xylene, paraxylene (PX), and mixed xylene (MX), prices fell in the week ended 14 March, weighed down by ample inventories and subdued demand. For acetone, prices have risen on tight supply because of plant maintenance, squeezing the margins of downstream isopropanol (IPA) producers, with LG Chem planning to shut its plant for a month from end-March. Meanwhile, palm oil prices in southeast Asia remain elevated due to lower production and stock levels, prompting a shift to cheaper alternatives like soybean oil in key markets such as India. Meanwhile, palm oil prices in southeast Asia remain elevated due to lower production and stock levels, prompting a shift to cheaper alternatives like soybean oil in key markets such as India. Consequently, downstream fatty alcohols prices increased. Although plants in Malaysia and Indonesia have expanded capacities, these will be offset by expected turnarounds during March to May. BEARISH SENTIMENT AMID TRADE WARS Industry players are navigating highly volatile markets amid the revival of the US-China trade war, with fears of a more widespread trade disruption amid the US’ protectionist measures under President Donald Trump. Buyers are generally cautious about building too much inventory amid continued weakness in demand. In the MX market, buyers in southeast Asia are maintaining sufficient inventories and avoiding additional spot purchases. For methyl methacrylate (MMA), domestic market in China remains sluggish due to high stocks and lackluster demand, while a strong US dollar was further dampening export demand. Similarly, the vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market is also facing weak demand in China, with traders struggling to offload high inventories due to slow spot trade activity. US’ tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports which took effect on 12 March are adding to regional economic concern, particularly for South Korea, which is as major steel exporter to the world’s biggest economy. China, whose economy has been slowing down, plans “promote reasonable wage growth by strengthening employment support in response to economic conditions”, to boost domestic consumption, its State Council said on 16 March. Among the new economic stimulus measures are implementing paid annual leaves for workers, expanding property income channels and accelerating development in new technologies. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Jasmine Khoo, Angeline Soh, Samuel Wong, Isaac Tan, Chris Qi, Helen Yan, Rita Wang, Elaine Zhang, Yvonne Shi, Li Peng Seng and Joanne Wang Thumbnail image: Qingdao Port Trade, China – 13 March 2025 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

17-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 14 March. Asia petrochemicals under pressure from China oversupply, US trade risks By Jonathan Yee 10-Mar-25 12:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment in Asia’s petrochemical markets remains cautious with prices of some products – particularly in the southeastern region – were rising on tight supply, amid escalating trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners, including China. Asia petrochemical shares track Wall Street rout on US tariff, recession worries By Jonathan Yee 11-Mar-25 11:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia tumbled on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s rout overnight on fears of a US recession caused by tariffs. Asia naphtha bull-run intensifies; potential risks ahead By Li Peng Seng 12-Mar-25 13:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Tight supplies and stronger-than-usual demand have driven Asia’s naphtha intermonth spread to nearly a year's high on 11 March, but upcoming cracker maintenance and rebounding arbitrage volumes could derail the current bull-run. Asia caprolactam spot prices decline, China plant operating rates reduce By Isaac Tan 12-Mar-25 20:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Caprolactam (capro) spot prices in Asia-Pacific declined in the week ended 12 March 2025, driven by weak benzene costs and sluggish downstream demand. China EVA industry: navigating capacity expansion amid demand uncertainty By Chris Qi 13-Mar-25 11:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) industry is expected to brace for a second wave of capacity expansion during 2025-2027. The country is now the world's largest EVA producer following intensive plant start-ups during 2021-2023. BLOG: A Different Kind of Downturn: Why This Cycle Won’t Simply “Right Itself” By John Richardson 13-Mar-25 11:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. INSIGHT: Poor demand dominates Asian isocyanates markets, oversupply caps Mideast gains By Shannen Ng 13-Mar-25 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Soft demand for key isocyanates polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) and toluene diisocyanate (TDI) in Asia and the Middle East is expected to persist throughout March, with lengthy supply also likely to weigh on sentiment. South Korea prepares full emergency response as US tariffs take effect By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Mar-25 12:51 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea is initiating full emergency response measures as US steel and aluminum tariffs take effect, aiming to mitigate the impact on its economy, which is already grappling with weak exports and domestic consumption.

17-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea is initiating full emergency response measures as US steel and aluminum tariffs take effect, aiming to mitigate the impact on its economy, which is already grappling with weak exports and domestic consumption. US reciprocal tariffs, automotive tariffs to bite Hyundai Steel enters emergency mode due to tariff-induced financial strain 2024 export surplus at risk as global tariff war escalates The South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) convened a meeting with stakeholders on 12 March to strategize in response to the US' newly implemented 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The MOTIE meeting was organized to "further strengthen the joint public-private emergency response system in preparation for the US administration's steel and aluminum tariff measures, the anticipated imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April, and tariffs on specific items such as automobiles", the ministry said in a statement. "We will further strengthen the response system ahead of the anticipated imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April and do our utmost to protect the interests of our industry," industry minister Ahn Duk-geun said. "We will closely conduct high-level and working-level consultations with the US, including the head of the Office of Trade, and monitor the response trends of other major countries to minimize any disadvantages to our industry," he added. South Korea's trade minister Cheong In-kyo is currently in the US from 13 to 14 March to discuss trade issues including reciprocal tariffs and investment projects with his counterparts, MOTIE said in a statement on 12 March. Cheong will meet with officials at the US Trade Representative for consultations on the tariff issue, as well as investment plans by South Korean companies in the world’s biggest economy. According to data from the US International Trade Administration (ITA), South Korea was the fourth-largest exporter of steel to the US last year, accounting for 9% of Washington's steel imports. The northeast Asian country was also the fourth-biggest exporter of aluminum to the US, comprising about 4% of US aluminum imports. Hyundai Steel Co, South Korea's second-largest steelmaker after POSCO, has entered emergency management mode due to increasing market pressures, local media reported on Friday. The company has implemented a 20% salary reduction for all executives, effective 13 March, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap. Further measures include a review of voluntary retirement options for staff, along with plans to drastically reduce operational expenses, including limiting overseas travel. The US tariffs on all steel imports have significantly worsened the company's financial outlook, the Korea Times said. EMERGENCY EXPORT MEASURES The South Korean government on 18 February announced emergency export measures consisting of four pillars: tariff responses; a record won (W) 366 trillion ($253 billion) in export financing; export market diversification; and additional marketing and logistics support. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene toluene and styrene. Government officials have expressed concern that export conditions are expected to worsen considerably in the first half of the year but improve in the second half, defining the current situation as “an emergency” and “the last opportunity to maintain the export growth momentum”. South Korea achieved record-breaking exports and a trade surplus in 2024, with exports reaching $683.7 billion and the trade balance showing a $51.6 billion surplus. A major concern is increased risks amid the trade protectionist stance of the US under President Donald Trump which could trigger a full-scale global tariff war. In February, South Korea’s export growth inched up 1% year on year to $52.6 billion, accompanied by the first decline in chip exports in 16 months which offset strong automobile and smartphone shipments. "The first half of the year is expected to be particularly difficult for exports due to the convergence of three major challenges: the launch of the new US administration, continued high interest rates and exchange rate volatility, and intensifying competition and oversupply in advanced industries," according to S Korea’s government ministries. Concerns include falling prices of major export items and a decrease in import demand in key markets as well as expectations of weak oil prices following the end of production cuts by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) and the US pro-fossil fuel policies. South Korea’s slowing import demand, the US’ increased local production, EU’s electric vehicle market challenges and global contractions in manufacturing and construction markets are also causes for concern. These factors are expected to particularly affect exports of major items such as semiconductors, automobiles, petrochemicals, and machinery in the first half of the year. There are also worries about lower exports in critical sectors due to falling unit prices and oil prices, along with the risk of reduced demand in the US and EU for automobiles and general machinery due to market challenges and the contraction of the construction market. South Korea's GDP growth this year is projected at 1.5%, down from its previous estimate of 1.9% and lower than the 1.6% to 1.7% range indicated in January. For 2024, South Korea's final GDP growth was confirmed at 2.0%, matching the preliminary estimate released in January. The economy is experiencing a slowdown in the recovery of domestic demand, including consumption and construction investment, coupled with continued employment difficulties, particularly in vulnerable sectors, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance's monthly economic report released in Korean on Friday. "While geopolitical risks persist in the global economy, uncertainties in the trade environment are also expanding, such as the realization of tariff impositions by major countries," it said. "The government will continue to work hard on supporting exports and responding to uncertainties in the trade environment." Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Trade cargo containers at Busan port, South Korea – 1 February 2025. (YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

14-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment in Asia’s petrochemical markets remains cautious with prices of some products – particularly in the southeastern region – were rising on tight supply, amid escalating trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners, including China. China’s oversupply-driven exports weigh on markets; post-Lunar New Year demand weaker than expected US tariff fears cause jitters across downstream industries Methanol supply constraints persist TRADES REMAIN SUBDUED Market activity in key chemical segments remains muted as buyers were staying on the sidelines, waiting for clarity on US trade policies and overall demand recovery. In the benzene market, South Korea’s January exports to the US slumped by 81% year on year to 15,000 tonnes, according to ICIS data. The decline was attributed to increased European supply to the US. “The market is cautious as everyone is waiting for more clarity on US tariff policies,” a trader said. South Korea faces potential hefty tariffs under the US’ plan to impose reciprocal tariffs from 2 April, even though the two countries have an existing free trade agreement. In the caprolactam (capro) market, producers are grappling with poor margins while supply within China continues to grow. “Capro margins have been bad for six months now, and demand didn’t pick up post-Lunar New Year,” said a Chinese producer. Chinese producers were exporting more to southeast Asia and Europe, in view of a general oversupply of petrochemicals and muted demand in the domestic market and following the US’ new 20% tariffs on all Chinese goods. For polypropylene (PP), China has ramped up exports to Vietnam and other southeast Asian nations which were exerting downward pressure on prices. With more Chinese capacity coming online, this trade flow is likely to continue. Chinese producers are increasingly willing to accept lower margins to capture market share in the polyolefin markets, creating ripple effects across Asia and beyond, forcing regional producers to adjust pricing strategies to remain competitive. However, these actions could be met with antidumping duties (ADD) as southeast Asian governments act to protect domestic producers. SHIPPING SECTOR WARY OF US POLICIES US protectionism is on the rise again under President Donald Trump’s administration, with an ongoing probe being conducted on China’s shipbuilding industry, which may be slapped with potential duties of up to $1.5 million per vessel. This move aims to deter reliance on Chinese-built ships and, instead, encourage investment in the US shipbuilding sector. China dominates the global shipbuilding industry, with over 81% of new tankers being built in the country, according to shipbroker Xclusiv in a November report. The fear is that if these tariffs come through, immediate cost impacts will be felt, especially on long-haul trades. Meanwhile, weaker freight demand post-Lunar New Year has also softened freight rates. Most downstream producers in China resumed operations in H2 February, after an extended holiday break. China was on official holiday from 28 January to 4 February. The northeast Asia winter was milder than expected, which reduced seasonal trade flows. DISRUPTIONS TIGHTEN SUPPLY While some chemical markets struggle with oversupply, others are experiencing tight supply due to plant outages. For methanol, supply is constrained in Malaysia, with Petronas’ unit experiencing operational issues, and Sarawak Petchem’s unit shut from late January. Iranian methanol plants have also been offline due to winter gas shortages, pushing Indian import prices up by $60/tonne within a week. Meanwhile, Russian supply disruptions due to drone attacks have tightened naphtha availability, strengthening prices. On the acetic acid front, plant turnarounds in China, Malaysia, and Japan initially tightened supply, but these units have since restarted, thereby improving availability of the material. OUTLOOK MIXED Market players remain wary of near-term price movements as supply and demand fundamentals shift across regions. March shipments for PE and PP in southeast Asia have largely been sold out, while Indonesian buyers are reluctant to commit to April purchases amid the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which started 1 March. Ramadan is observed in most parts of southeast Asia including Indonesia, southeast Asia’s biggest economy with a predominantly Muslim population. With uncertainties surrounding US’ trade policies, Chinese exports, and geopolitical risks, market sentiment remains mixed. Players are closely monitoring tariff developments and the potential impacts of further supply disruptions in key markets. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting from Seng Li Peng, Isaac Tan, Tan Hwee Hwee, Angeline Soh, Jasmine Khoo, Julia Tan, Josh Quah, Damini Dabholkar, Doris He, Jackie Wong Thumbnail image: At Qingdao Port in Shandong province, China on 6 March 2025. (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

10-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's headline inflation eased in February, giving the central bank flexibility to loosen monetary policy to boost economic activity amid a slowdown. 1.9% average inflation forecast kept for 2025-2026 Feb PMI reading in contraction mode at 49.9 Feb exports rebound weaker than expected Consumer price inflation in Asia’s fourth-largest economy eased last month to 2% on a year-on-year basis, slowing from the six-month high of 2.2% in January, data from Statistics Korea showed on Thursday. After staying below the central bank's 2% target in September-December 2024, inflation spiked in January due to rising global oil prices, compounded by weakness of the Korean won. "Going forward, consumer inflation is expected to fluctuate around the target level amid mixed factors of a weak local currency and low demand pressure," the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a statement. The won (W) has strengthened 2% against the dollar this year, reaching around W1,440 against the US dollar on Thursday, after tumbling to its weakest level in almost 16 years in early January, with the downward pressure aggravated by a prolonged domestic political instability. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also eased in February to 1.8%, from 1.9% in the previous month. South Korea's trade-reliant economy is facing numerous challenges, including the protectionist policies of the US’ Trump administration. In response to these headwinds and with inflation largely in line with expectations, the BOK has adopted a more accommodative monetary policy stance, cutting its benchmark interest rate three times since October 2024. On 25 February, the central bank cut its policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% as it revised down its GDP forecasts. GDP growth this year is projected at 1.5%, down from its previous estimate of 1.9% and lower than the 1.6% to 1.7% range indicated in January. For 2024, South Korea's final real GDP growth was confirmed at 2.0%, matching the preliminary estimate released in January, the BOK said on 5 March. Meanwhile, the central bank maintained its inflation average forecast of 1.9% for both this year and next. "Export growth has weakened amid a slump in consumption, driven by increased political uncertainties following the declaration of martial law and by a deterioration in weather conditions," the BOK said. "Trends in the domestic demand recovery and in export growth are forecast to be lower than previously expected due to deteriorating economic sentiment and due to U.S. tariff policies," it stated. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene toluene and styrene. The country is experiencing a political crisis stemming from President Yoon Suk Yeol's controversial declaration of martial law in December, which has led to his impeachment and arrest. Its Constitutional Court is deciding President Yoon's fate, reviewing his impeachment after weeks of public trials, with his insurrection trial expected to take months and a verdict potentially reached by late 2025 or early 2026, according to media reports. ECONOMY LOSING STEAM South Korea’s industrial production shrank in January, with noted declines across output, consumption and investments. January’s overall industry output in January fell 2.7% year on year, reversing a 1.7% increase in December, official data showed on 4 March. Industrial output in South Korea's manufacturing and mining sector decreased by 2.3% in January compared with the same month last year. The services and construction sector output declined by 0.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Data released over the weekend showed that February exports rose 1.0% year on year, a sharp reversal of the 10.2% decline in January. Imports also increased, rising by 0.2% compared to a 6.4% drop in January, though this was below market expectations of a 2.6% rise. "While the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday adds volatility to the data, underlying momentum weakened in February,” Dutch banking and financial information services provider ING said in a note. The Lunar New Year, which is celebrated in most parts of northeast and southeast Asia, fell on 29 January. Conversely, car exports rebounded strongly by 17.7% year on year in February after falling in the previous three months. “Carmakers are likely to push their products out as early as possible before the reciprocal tariffs come into effect,” ING said. “We expect exports to remain a growth driver for the economy in the first quarter of 2025. Despite the moderation in exports, a sharper decline in imports should boost the positive contribution from net exports in Q1 2025.” MANUFACTURING PMI BACK IN CONTRACTION  S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI for South Korea dipped to 49.9 in February from 50.3 in January, even though output and new orders increased. This suggests that exports are likely to maintain their upward trajectory, while the domestic economy is acting as a drag on overall growth. “As suggested by the local business survey, business confidence remained weak amid political instability in Korea and uncertainty surrounding global trade,” ING said. “We expect the domestic political situation to become clearer in two weeks following the Constitutional Court ruling on the impeachment of President Yoon,” it added. “But US trade policy is likely to remain a headwind for businesses,” ING said. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: At a container pier in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan on 1 November 2023.(YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

06-Mar-2025