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Toluene prices, markets & analysis

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Market Overview

Updated to Q3 2021

Asia

Supply in northeast Asia was mixed. In the beginning of Q2, downstream margins from toluene disproportionation (TDP) production was healthy, which boosted domestic demand in northeast Asia and left fewer available cargoes for export. However, the arbitrage window between the US and Asia closed later in Q2, which left more cargoes in this region. In southeast Asia, supply remained ample, with few plant turnarounds taking place.

Import demand in northeast Asia increased at the start of Q2, especially in China, as some domestic plants were shut for planned turnaround. However, with most plants resuming operations in May, the import demand subsequently decreased. Squeezed margins in the domestic markets also weighed on buying sentiment. Downstream consumption in the domestic markets slowed amid the increase in COVID-19 infections, with stricter travel restrictions leading to a decrease in demand in southeast Asia and India.

Europe

TDI supply was mixed in Q1 after the region’s largest producer, BASF, closed its Ludwigshafen plant in Germany in mid-March for maintenance after a three-month closure in late 2020. Outages at US plants following winter storms in mid-February and logistics issues further tightened supply.

TDI demand was relatively healthy in Q1 as the buying appetite for mattresses and furniture continued to beat expectations, spurred by a boom in home improvements linked to the coronavirus pandemic. In some cases, however, TDI demand was capped by limitations on polyether polyols supply, which constrained foam production. Automotive demand for flexible foams fluctuated.

Supply started the quarter tight and that continued into May. This was due to planned turnarounds and unplanned outages at refineries and crackers leading to lower production levels with the market not having sufficient inventory levels amid strong demand. Operating rates later rallied with a number of plant restarts later in the quarter resulting in better availability. In general, supply in Q2 was considered to be tighter than the previous quarter.

Q2 demand started off healthy, supported by exports to the US and Asia, and downstream chemical sector due to healthy conversions with benzene and good demand from TDI. Demand started to decrease as conversion margins narrowed, arbitrage windows closed and an outage at a TDI plant. Gasoline blending demand throughout the quarter has been dull. Overall Q2 was considered to have had better demand than Q1.

US

Supply lengthened during the latter part of Q2 coming off of a tight first half of the quarter as derivative benzene and mixed xylenes supplies outpaced demand as key US Gulf Coast production centres resumed after the Q1 polar storm.

Demand was strong for most of the quarter, with volumes mainly going into toluene disproportionation unit production on stronger spreads with derivative benzene. Fuel blending activity ahead of and during the highly anticipated US summer driving season also supported toluene consumption.

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    • Key trading prices: Spot/contract, import/export and domestic toluene on a daily and weekly basis

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  • Price alerts and market updates: Shifts in prices, breaking news, market developments and supply demand trends
  • Plant data: Production and capacity, plant maintenance and shutdowns
  • Feedstock/downstream information: Prices and market commentary on upstream commodities such as benzene and phenol and downstream markets
  • Weekly market sentiment: Near-term price direction and appetite of buyers and sellers in active trading regions
  • Supply and demand: Analysis of domestic and international supply and demand

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ICIS publishes daily and weekly pricing reports for toluene to help you keep track of trading prices, understand price drivers/fluctuations and set a benchmark for contract price settlements. Information covered in our price reports includes:

Asia

  • FOB South Korea
  • CFR NE Asia, SE Asia, India, China
  • Ex-tank E China, Ex-tank India

Europe

  • FOB NWE
  • ROB R’Dam
  • CIF Med

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Each ICIS toluene pricing subscription comes with analytics tools that take away the hassle of developing your own analysis. Quickly access data such as:

    • Price Drivers Analytics: An interactive map identifying net price differences between regions, factoring in freight costs and duties, to enrich the global picture of cross-regional competition and import and export opportunities.

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  • Price Optimisation Analytics: An interactive map identifying net price differences between regions, factoring in freight and duties costs, to enrich the global picture of cross-regional competition and import and export opportunities.
  • Live Disruptions Tracker – Supply: Real-time view of domestic and global supply, plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months, plus the impact of these changes.
  • Live Disruptions Tracker – Impact: A tool that visualises supply disruptions using live data, as validated by ICIS production news with an impact view connecting downstream shutdowns to show consumption capacity loss in real time.
  • Margin Analytics – Get actionable variable cost margins by feedstock/process type and location, with analyst insight
  • Supply & Demand Outlooks: Quarterly supply and demand outlooks for toluene.

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