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Toluene prices, markets & analysis

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Market Overview

Updated to Q4 2019

Asia

Toluene supply increased slightly early in the fourth quarter, as integrated aromatics producers were still extracting more toluene on squeezed downstream toluene disproportionation (TDP) production spreads – despite the slight improvement in benzene prices. However, availability was cut towards December 2019 on better internal demand usage by refineries on healthy gasoline blending margins.

Demand came from India mostly, on the back of tighter domestic supply there and wide margins for distributors to engage in back-to-back business activity. Southeast Asian demand was strong in October and November on replenishment activities from distributors, but it tapered off towards December as the monsoon season started. Chinese demand was weak throughout the whole quarter on sufficient domestic supply and poor distributor margins.

Europe

Patchy supply from several plants going into the fourth quarter – due to maintenance or some supply on allocation, be it in northwest or southern Europe – did not, as expected, majorly impact availability. For example, one supplier understood to have maintenance in early Q4 was able to offer toluene and xylenes from another of its plants. As expected, a central European maintenance in the fourth quarter did not significantly affect western European market balance.

Higher than expected blending demand persisted throughout Q4, keeping premiums over gasoline firm when they might have seasonally slipped for blending. Premiums for chemical products were softer. Downstream chemical demand was weak on a Q4 maintenance at BASF’s major downstream toluene diisocyanate (TDI) plant in Germany, carrying on from the automotive sector’s weak summertime performance. Demand from benzene was non-existent on paper: spreads were firmly negative (based on a 1.2 ratio) after a brief positive spell in 2019.

US

Supply lengthened during the fourth quarter amid healthy refinery rates as refiners prepared for the impending 2020 International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations on high-sulphur bunker fuels and amid imports from Asia. Expanding capacity in Asia has added to US supply, making it increasingly dependent on imports. Meanwhile, consumption was negatively impacted by depressed margins for toluene disproportionation units.

Demand decreased in the fourth quarter as a low season and a global economic slowdown hurt demand for downstream products. Lengthening supply put downward pressure on the market, pushing prices closer to the blend value, and discouraging producers from extracting it from the gasoline blending pool for sale in the chemical market. The economics for toluene disproportionation started off poor but improved in December as spot benzene prices moved up.

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How we can help

Whether you are buying or selling toluene, ICIS provides you with the right pricing data, analytics, news and market analysis you need to confidently plan and make your trades, as well as shape future strategies and maintain a competitive advantage.

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Services

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  • Key trading prices: Spot/contract, import/export and domestic toluene on a daily and weekly basis

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  • Price alerts and market updates: Shifts in prices, breaking news, market developments and supply demand trends
  • Plant data: Production and capacity, plant maintenance and shutdowns
  • Feedstock/downstream information: Prices and market commentary on upstream commodities such as benzene and phenol and downstream markets
  • Weekly market sentiment: Near-term price direction and appetite of buyers and sellers in active trading regions
  • Supply and demand: Analysis of domestic and international supply and demand

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ICIS publishes daily and weekly pricing reports for toluene to help you keep track of trading prices, understand price drivers/fluctuations and set a benchmark for contract price settlements. Information covered in our price reports includes:

Asia

  • FOB South Korea
  • CFR NE Asia, SE Asia, India, China
  • Ex-tank E China, Ex-tank India

Europe

  • FOB NWE
  • ROB R’Dam
  • CIF Med

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Each ICIS toluene pricing subscription comes with analytics tools that take away the hassle of developing your own analysis. Quickly access data such as:

  • Price Drivers Analytics: An interactive map identifying net price differences between regions, factoring in freight costs and duties, to enrich the global picture of cross-regional competition and import and export opportunities.

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  • Price Optimisation Analytics: An interactive map identifying net price differences between regions, factoring in freight and duties costs, to enrich the global picture of cross-regional competition and import and export opportunities.
  • Live Disruptions Tracker – Supply: Real-time view of domestic and global supply, plant outages and start-ups for the next 12 months, plus the impact of these changes.
  • Live Disruptions Tracker – Impact: A tool that visualises supply disruptions using live data, as validated by ICIS production news with an impact view connecting downstream shutdowns to show consumption capacity loss in real time.
  • Margin Analytics – Get actionable variable cost margins by feedstock/process type and location, with analyst insight
  • Supply & Demand Outlooks: Quarterly supply and demand outlooks for toluene.

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ICIS brings you breaking chemical news as it happens – including market moves, analysis, data and more. The service is reliable, authoritative and always available when you need it most.

Stay on top of toluene markets across all regions with ICIS news.toulene-img-4

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Get a long-term view of the market with the ICIS Supply and Demand Data Service, which offers end-to-end perspectives of the toluene markets.

Gain quick access to data on import and export volumes, plant capacities, production, product trade flows, companies and route. With historical data from 1978 and forecasts available up to 2040, this powerful data and analytics service from ICIS helps senior management, strategists, business planners, analysts and risk managers to:

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Working closely with you to understand your strategies, challenges and ambitions, the consulting team at ICIS delivers tailored advice and solutions to suit your unique requirements. With many years of experience in guiding business leadership teams, we show you how market conditions can make a positive or negative impact on your long-term plans.

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Methodology

Our Pricing Methodology: ICIS price assessments are based on information gathered from a wide cross-section of the market, comprising consumers, producers, traders and distributors from more than 250 reporters worldwide. Confirmed deals, verified by both buyers and sellers, provide the foundation of our price assessments.

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Benzene

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