Toluene

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's economy shrank by 0.1% year on year in the first quarter as domestic consumption remained in the doldrums amid a prolonged political crisis, while exports fell on US tariffs, central bank data showed on Thursday. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first three months of 2025, shrinking for the first time since Q2 2024, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a statement. Goods exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy slipped by 0.8% year on year in the first quarter, reversing the 2.6% growth in Q4 2024. Latest data for the first 20 days of April point to further weakness for South Korea's exports, falling by 5.2% year on year. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene, toluene, and styrene. Private consumption, accounting for roughly half of the country's GDP, increased by 0.9% year over year in the first quarter, lower than the 1.6% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. Manufacturing expanded at a slower pace of 0.4% year on year in the first quarter, from the 2.2% growth in the last three months of 2024. South Korea's economy is facing headwinds on multiple fronts. The country is still reeling from the political chaos triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise martial law declaration on 3 December, which lasted just a few hours, and ultimately led to his removal from office on 4 April. South Korea will hold a snap election on 3 June to replace Yoon after the country’s Constitutional Court unanimously upheld a decision by the legislature to impeach Yoon. The trade-dependent economy is also grappling with the impact of the US' broad tariff scheme. A 25% US reciprocal tariff announced for South Korea that was supposed to take effect on 9 April was suspended by US President Donald Trump for 90 days. During this temporary suspension, South Korea is subject to the 10% baseline tariff and its auto industry remains affected by a 25% tariff on automobiles, which is separate from the reciprocal tariff and not paused. The central bank forecasts a slower GDP growth of 1.5% for South Korea this year, after posting a 2.0% growth in 2024. BoK governor Rhee Chang-yong on 17 April, however, said that the growth forecast might still be too optimistic, citing Trump's tariff policy and its sectoral tariffs, as well as levies on China, which is South Korea’s biggest market. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At a container pier in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan on 1 November 2023.(YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

24-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US is taking steps that could lead to tariffs on imports of up to 50 critical minerals, many of which are used to make catalysts for key processes used by refiners and chemical producers. If the US ends up imposing the tariffs on the critical minerals, then they would take the place of the reciprocal tariffs. REFINING CATALYSTS AND AROMATICS MARKETSFluorspar is used to make hydrofluoric acid, a catalyst used in alkylation units. These units convert isobutane and propylene into alkylate, a high-octane blendstock. Cerium and lanthanum are used to make catalysts for fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units. These units convert gas oils into gasoline and refinery grade propylene (RGP). If the US imposes tariffs on these catalysts and if the tariffs cause large enough price increases, then refiners could alter their operations to reduce their costs. If refiners lower alkylation operating rates, they may rely on other high-octane blendstock such as toluene or mixed xylenes (MX). Changes in alkylation and FCC rates would concurrently affect supply and demand for RGP. ANTIMONY AND PETChinese restrictions on antimony already have led producers to propose price increases for polyethylene terephthalate (PET), which relies on the mineral as a catalyst. If the US imposes tariffs on antimony, then it would further increase prices from the other countries that export the mineral to the US. BISMUTH AND POLYURETHANESBismuth is used as a catalyst for making polyurethanes. One such bismuth-based catalyst won an innovation award. OTHER CATALYSTSIridium, neodymium, rhodium, ruthenium, ytterbium and yttrium are all used to make catalysts, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS). Palladium and platinum are used in catalytic converters in automobiles. TIO2 AND PAINTS MARKETSThe US also considers titanium and zirconium as critical minerals. It is unclear if the US would impose tariffs on titanium metal or titanium oxide. However, the US list of critical minerals implies that the tariffs could include titanium oxide. Titanium oxide is the feedstock that is used to make titanium dioxide (TiO2), a white pigment that is used to make paints opaque. Producers of paints and coatings are already facing higher costs from US tariffs on steel. In 2023, Sherwin-Williams estimates that plastic and metal containers made up 15% of its product's costs. A tariff on titanium oxide would further increase costs for paints and coatings producers. Zirconium is a byproduct of processing mineral sands that contain titanium. TiO2 producers Tronox and Chemours operate such mines. Tronox's are in Australia and South Africa, and Chemours has mines in the US states of Florida and Georgia. FLUORSPAR AND FLUOROMATERIALSFluorspar is also the upstream feedstock for fluorochemicals and fluoropolymers. Polyurethane foams use fluorochemicals as blowing agents. Fluoropolymers include Teflon. These are becoming increasingly important in 5G equipment, semiconductor fabrication plants and lithium-ion batteries. Fluoropolymers are also used as membranes in hydrogen fuel cells and chlor-alkali plants. BARITE, CESIUM USED IN OIL PRODUCTIONBarite is used to make drilling mud. Cesium is used to make cesium formate drilling fluids, which are used by oil and gas producers. FLAME RETARDANTSAluminum and antimony are used to make flame retardants. INVESTIGATION TO PRECEDE ANY TARIFFSBefore the US imposes any tariffs on critical minerals, it will conduct an investigation under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The US has used that section to impose tariffs on other products such as steel and aluminium. The scope of the investigation will include the 50 minerals deemed critical by the USGS, processed critical minerals and derivative products. Derivative products include semi-finished goods and final products "such as permanent magnets, motors, electric vehicles, batteries, smartphones, microprocessors, radar systems, wind turbines and their components and advanced optical devices", according to the order. The secretary of commerce will have 180 days to submit a final report of the investigation to the president. Recommendations will include tariffs and policies the US could adopt that would promote more production of critical minerals. LIST OF CRITICAL MINERALSThe following table shows the minerals that the US considers critical. Aluminium Magnesium Antimony Manganese Arsenic Neodymium Barite Nickel Beryllium Niobium Bismuth Palladium Cerium Platinum Cesium Praseodymium Chromium Rhodium Cobalt Rubidium Dysprosium Ruthenium Erbium Samarium Europium Scandium Fluorspar Tantalum Gadolinium Tellurium Gallium Terbium Germanium Thulium Graphite Tin Hafnium Titanium Holmium Tungsten Indium Vanadium Iridium Ytterbium Lanthanum Yttrium Lithium Zinc Lutetium Zirconium Source: USGS Insight article by Al Greenwood (Thumbnail shows a fuel pump that dispenses gasoline, which relies on critical minerals for production. Image by Shutterstock.)

17-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US “reciprocal” tariffs are prompting a shift of trade flows and supply chains as market players in Asia seek alternative export outlets for some chemicals, while overall demand remains tepid amid growing fears of a global recession. US-China trade war 2.0 keeps market players on edge Regional traders wary amid US’ 90-day tariff suspension SE Asia prepares for US trade talks as China president visits Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia Trades across the equities and commodities markets last week have been highly volatile since the start of April in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, the highest of which was imposed on China. The higher-than-expected tariffs sparked concerns over a possible global recession that sent crude prices slumping last week, dragging down downstream aromatics products such as benzene and toluene. Trump had raised the reciprocal tariffs for China three times in as many days – from 34%, to 84% and to 125% on 9-11 April – with China responding in kind. Including the combined 20% tariffs imposed in the past two months, the US’ effective additional tariffs for China stand at 145%. In the polyethylene (PE) market, prices are softening as US-bound export orders shrink, while polypropylene (PP) exports from China to southeast Asia look set to decline. Most polyolefin players in Asia and beyond are currently attending the 37th International Exhibition on Plastics and Rubber Industries (Chinaplas) in Shenzhen, China, which will run up to 18 April. Some China-based market players said the event could provide them an opportunity to explore alternative markets by deepening their relationships with buyers in southeast Asia. Exports of chemicals and plastics used in automobiles to the US, meanwhile, are likely to shrink as well amid auto tariffs from the world’s biggest economy. Apart from PP, exports nylon, butadiene (BD), and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) to the US are expected to decline. Trump, on 14 April, said he is considering possible exemptions to his 25% tariffs on imported automobiles and parts. His tariffs on all car imports took effect on 3 April, while those on automotive parts will take place no later than 3 May. The automotive sector is a major downstream industry for petrochemicals. China’s PE imports from the US spiked in early 2025 but this is expected to reverse sharply because of the trade war between the two countries. However, China has a substantial number of naphtha and coal-based PE plants starting up in 2025 with a combined PE capacity of more than 8 million tonnes, which should reduce the country’s dependence on imports. The US will also need to redirect surplus PE to alternative markets amid dwindling Chinese demand. Market players expect demand in the second quarter to be worse than the first three months of 2025 amid hefty US reciprocal tariffs hanging over countries in Asia when Trump’s three-month pause lapses. Implementation of the US’ reciprocal tariffs were suspended on 9 April, for 90 days, providing some reprieve to about 60 countries, except China. Freight rates between China and the US have already decreased due to the trade war as demand evaporates. However, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) prices in India are bucking the general downtrend and have firmed up as the chemical is not directly subjected to US tariffs. VAM is primarily used in the production of adhesives, textiles, paints and coatings. SE ASIA PREPARE TRADE TALKS The 10-member ASEAN group pledged that they will not impose retaliatory tariffs on the US following an emergency meeting, opting to negotiate with the US. Among the nations scheduled for talks with the US are Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia – all of which were slapped with high tariffs of up to 46%. Thailand intends to scrutinize imports more thoroughly to prevent cheap imports from China entering the country, as the US has warned against such “third-country” methods of evading tariffs. Anti-dumping duties are also being considered by Malaysia and Indonesia against China to counter an expected rise in cheap imports to their countries. Trade flows are still expected to change as China steps up talks and partnerships with the EU, as well as with southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia. While several Asian nations are lining up for discussions with the US government, China and the US have yet to schedule a meeting, heightening concerns of economic headwinds in the coming year. Singapore has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to between 0-2% on account of the US-China trade war, and other countries are expected to follow suit. Before the pause on reciprocal tariffs, the World Trade Organization (WTO) had forecast trade growth to contract by 1.0% in 2025, from 3.0% previously. Meanwhile, China President Xi Jinping is currently in southeast Asia – with state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia – up to 18 April, to forge stronger economic ties with its Asian neighbors amid an escalating trade war with the US. China posted an annualized Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, unchanged form the previous quarter, while there is a consensus that the Asian economic giant would weaken from Q2 onward. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Additional reporting by Samuel Wong, Izham Ahamd, Jackie Wong, Hwee Hwee Tan, Joanne Wang, Lucy Shuai, Jonathan Chou, Angeline Soh, Melanie Wee, Shannen Ng and Josh Quah

16-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The tariffs imposed by the US and the uncertainty of what will follow has caused a crash in oil prices and is one of the main factors behind a global decline in chemical prices in the days after the country's April announcement of its reciprocal tariffs. The following chart shows the sharp declines among the seven building-block chemicals. Notably, the declines continued even after the US paused the implementation of the higher reciprocal tariffs and settled for the relatively lower 10% rate against most countries. The exception is China, which has been responding to US tariffs with matching rates. The two countries are now imposing triple-digit tariffs on each others' imports. While the US has made exceptions for critical minerals, pharmaceuticals and electronics, China has made none. China's tariffs include the large amounts of natural gas liquids (NGLs) that it imports as feedstock for its propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units and its ethane crackers. LOWER OIL PRICESPrices for plastics and petrochemicals tend to rise and fall with those for oil. Oil prices have been falling since the start of the year, but the decline accelerated rapidly following the April tariff announcements by the US, as shown in the following table. Figures are in dollars per barrel. 2-Jan 1-Apr 14-Apr Brent 75.93 74.49 64.88 WTI 73.13 71.20 61.53 The decline was remarkable because it happened despite the weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index has fallen by 8% as of 14 April since the start of the year. Oil prices tend to rise when the dollar weakens. This relationship has broken down in part because of plans by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) to increase May production by an amount much higher than anticipated. But another reason is lower demand. Following the reciprocal tariff announcement by the US, ICIS lowered its forecast for global oil demand by 10%. ICIS also lowered its forecast for Brent oil prices for the rest of the year. Lower oil prices are manifesting themselves in aromatics markets, which are closely tied to crude. Export declined month on month for toluene and other aromatics from South Korea to the US for gasoline blending for March loading. Prices of toluene in India tumbled to fresh three-year lows. FALLING CHEM DEMANDDemand for plastics and chemicals also tends to rise and fall with the economy. Economists have started lowering their forecasts for growth, according to a periodic survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal. Survey participants also increased the chances of a recession. Tariffs will act like a sales tax. Companies and consumers will treat the tax like any other – they will take steps to avoid it by purchasing fewer goods. If one applied the US baseline tariff of 10% to the $3.3 trillion of goods the US imported in 2024, that comes to $3.3 billion in taxes. That represents a lot of potential purchases that US companies and consumers could defer or abandon. RPM International, a US producer of coatings, adhesives and sealants, expects that the slow- to no-growth environment of the past 18 months will persist. RPM's comments are notable because they were made on 8 April, after the US announced its reciprocal tariffs. UNCERTAINTYUncertainty is starting to paralyze some key chemical end markets. The auto industry in the US is already showing signs of this, RPM said. In European polyethylene (PE) markets, buyers are retreating to the side lines rather than committing to volumes in the current climate. “All in all, people are being careful, and that's not just converters that also consumers. People are worried about the future, and it's probably affecting demand further down chain as well," said ICIS markets editor Ben Monroe-Lake. “All in all, people are being careful, and that's not just converters that also consumers. People are worried about the future, and it's probably affecting demand further down chain as well.” REDIRECTED TRADE FLOWSBy imposing such broad tariffs, the US has erected a formidable trade barrier around its economy, which has caused exporters to redirect their shipments to other markets. This is especially true of Chinese exports. The US has created an effective embargo of Chinese imports by increasing its tariffs by 145% in 2025. Even with the recent exemptions adopted by the US, a large portion of Chinese imports will need to find new markets. The following table shows 2024 US general imports from China. Figures are in US dollars. Chapter Description Value 29 Organic chemicals 8,519,224,570 39 Plastics and plastic products 19,290,918,758 All Chapters Total 438,947,386,145 Source: US International Trade Commission (ITC) Similarly, China's 125% tariffs on shipments from the US would cause a large amount of products to be redirected, as shown in the following table. Figures are in US dollars. Chapter Description Value 27 Coal; mineral fuels, oils and products 14,727,138,106 29 Organic chemicals 3,980,594,815 39 Plastics and plastic products 7,452,840,887 All Chapters Total 143,545,739,507 Source: US ITC Given the tariff rates, it's likely that direct trade between the US and China will crater, said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China, at ING. Re-arranging global trade flows on such a scale will affect local chemical markets directly and indirectly through the influx of end products made with plastics and chemicals. The world was already contending with an oversupply of chemicals. This will aggravate it Such concerns have already appeared in east Chinese markets for certain grades of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE), which reached multi-year lows. Market players are worried that US tariffs will cause a decline in demand for Chinese products that use these plastic grades. Similar concerns are arising in the Middle East among buyers and sellers of polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) US auto tariffs could cause producers in the rest of the world to reduce output of vehicles and parts. These auto tariffs are global, and they are separate from the reciprocal tariffs. As such, the US auto tariffs are still in effect. If auto producers lower output, that will reduce demand for plastics and chemicals used in auto production, such as polypropylene (PP), nylon, butadiene (BD), and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) “I may have to tweak my operations if I lose access to the US market, and if so, certainly I would be prudent now not to overcommit on forward deliveries of raw materials including EPDM,” said an auto parts maker in southeast Asia. Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer (EPDM) refers to a synthetic rubber. DEFLATIONARY SPIRALIf companies expect declines to continue, then they may postpone purchases, setting off a deflationary spiral, in which sellers lower prices each time buyers defer purchases. Such a dynamic could emerge in European ethylene market and its PP market. US TARIFFS COULD MAKE THE COUNTRY THE EXCEPTIONAlthough US prices for building blocks have fallen since the April tariff announcement, many have still raised their expectations for inflation. RPM said on 8 April that the tariffs announced at that time would raise its raw material costs for its US operations by 4.3%. RPM's forecast did not take into account the 90-day pause on tariffs that the US announced on 9 April. That said, others are expecting prices in general to increase. Seasonally adjusted, a net 30% of US small business owners planned price hikes in March, up one point from February and the highest reading since March 2024. CHINA'S NGL TARIFFS MAY CREATE US GLUTChina's tariffs of 125% do not carve out any exemptions for ethane, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or other natural gas liquids (NGLs). China imports large amounts of these feedstocks from the US If China maintains the tariffs on NGLs, it could cause a supply glut of these primary chemical feedstocks in the US. The country does not have the chemical capacity to absorb the shipments that would normally go to China, and it is unlikely that the rest of the world can fully offset the loss of China as an export destination. If China maintains its tariffs on US NGLs, ICIS expects that US ethane and propane prices will decline. Insight article by Al Greenwood Additional reporting by Vicky Ellis, Ajay Parmar, Nurluqman Suratman, Isaac Tan, Nel Weddle, Melanie Wee, Kojo Orgle and Jonathan Yee Infographics by Yashas Mudumbai (Thumbnail shows a flask, which commonly holds chemicals. Image by Fotohunter.)

15-Apr-2025

NEW YORK (ICIS)–2 April 2025 – dubbed ‘Liberation Day’ by US President Trump – saw a sweeping and substantial salvo of reciprocal tariffs, with a baseline tariff set at 10% but for many countries, much higher customized levels. The higher reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on 9 April, with the baseline 10% tariff imposed on 5 April. However, as of 8 April, there is emerging optimism on the potential for trade deals following comments from US President Trump that South Korea and China want to make a deal, and from administration officials that the US is in discussions with a number of countries. The reciprocal tariff levels – which include 34% on China, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 32% on Taiwan, 26% on India, 25% on South Korea and 24% on Japan – were very much higher than anticipated. For China, 34% in reciprocal tariffs to come into effect on 9 April would be on top of the previous 20% tariffs the US implemented in February (10%) and March (10%), catapulting additional US tariffs on China this year to 54%. Products that fall under US sectoral tariffs, such as 25% on autos and auto parts, in effect since 5 April, will be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. Products flagged for upcoming sectoral tariffs – pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber and copper – will also be exempt from reciprocal tariffs. For Canada and Mexico, the US 25% tariff will remain in place, but only for non-USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) compliant imports. DIRECT IMPACT ON US CHEMICAL MARKETSTariffs will undoubtedly raise costs for the US chemical industry and its customers, in the form of logistics, feedstocks and components such as additives and catalysts. For certain product chains where the US is self-sufficient, the direct impact should be somewhat limited. For example, Canada is the dominant exporter of chemicals and plastics to the US, but these are primarily in the olefins chain – polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), propylene and ethylene glycol (EG) – where the US is more than self-sufficient and a big net exporter. These should also be USMCA compliant and thus exempt from tariffs. Even if there was a disruption, US producers in the US Gulf Coast could ship more volumes of ethylene and propylene derivatives domestically, replacing imports from Canada – although at higher logistics costs to some locations. The aromatics chain is more complicated. The US is a large net importer of benzene, toluene, xylenes and paraxylene (PX) – the bulk of which comes from South Korea, which is being hit with a 25% reciprocal tariff. The EU also exports aromatics to the US and will be subject to a 20% tariff. The US is a major importer of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) with China and the EU as major suppliers. With 20% in additional tariffs imposed on all China exports in two stages – February (10%) and March (10%) – on top of the existing 25% tariff on China MDI, the US tariff on MDI from China is 45%. Adding the 34% reciprocal tariff brings this to a whopping 79% tariff level by 9 April. US EXPORTS IN CROSSHAIRS FOR RETALIATIONThe bigger risk to the US is for chemical and plastics exports. The US runs a chemical trade surplus of over $30 billion, according to the American Chemistry Council. Already China has announced a 34% tariff on all US imports to go into effect 10 April, while the EU prepares €18 billion in tariffs that would go into effect 15 April. The latter, which is in retaliation for US steel and aluminium tariffs, includes US PE and other polymers and chemicals. Even as the US is a much larger goods importer than exporter, particularly with China, it is the reverse for the US chemical industry, which will bear the brunt of the impact. “US goods exports to China in 2024 were $143.55 billion. The US imports far more – $462.64 billion – but this will have an impact on the US chemical industry as we compete against producers in the Middle East and elsewhere in Asia,” said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. “This is the first large retaliatory challenge. Let’s hope it doesn’t devolve into a swirling beggar-thy-neighbor trade war,” he added. The new China 34% tariff on imports from the US could result in a $34 billion falloff in US exports of all goods to the nation – about a 24% decline, according to an analysis by Swift. Since 2018, the year that the first US-China trade war kicked off by the first Trump administration, US commodity chemical net exports have surged 88% to 2024, and are thus far more exposed to retaliatory tariffs than ever before. During this period, US exports of commodity chemicals and polymers to the world have increased 28% while imports declined 5%, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. Top US chemical and polymers exports are linear low density PE (LLDPE), high density PE (HDPE), EG, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), caustic soda, methanol, low density PE (LDPE), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), polypropylene (PP) and styrene. If China puts an additional 34% import tariff on US PE, the economics for exports do not work, even with the substantial US cost advantage. “With a 34% tariff on top of the current 6.5% tariff, US PE margins go negative at current production costs. US PE demand has been weak so far this year, particularly exports, down 8.1% year on year,” said Harrison Jacoby, director of PE at ICIS. “We see rebalancing of trade – less US PE into China, more to Europe. The industry already saw the start of this trend in 2024, with more US PE shifting from China to Europe. Now we need to see how Europe reacts on 13 April with its proposed retaliation targeting US PE, if they will increase their current 6.5% duty,” he added. In retaliation for US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports that took effect on 12 March, the EU plans a new round of tariffs on around €18 billion of imports from the US, which includes high density PE (HDPE), linear low density PE (LLDPE) and low density PE (LDPE) along with a range of plastics and rubber products. This would be implemented in mid-April following a consultation period. The US is also a major exporter of PE to Europe. Total US PE exports to China and Europe were 32% of total US PE exports in 2024, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. “The big picture is there are two low-cost PE regions that are the only net exporters – the US and Canada and the Middle East. These regions will continue to fill global production shortfalls, optimizing to mitigate the impact of tariffs,” said Jacoby. However, demand growth is likely to fall as a trade war will only further weaken demand for all goods and services, he added. Retaliatory tariffs on key US chemical exports could also have ripple effects throughout the chain. For example, retaliatory tariffs on US PE could lower cracker operating rates, in turn reducing crude C4 (CC4) feedstock coming out of those crackers for butadiene (BD) production. “I am concerned about impacts on our suppliers and customers. If there’s an impact on the ethylene industry which causes rate reductions because exports [of derivatives such as PE] get tougher, that would have an indirect effect on our supply of CC4s,” said Ed Dineen, CEO of BD producer TPC Group, in an interview with ICIS at the International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). HIT TO KEY END MARKETSKey chemical end markets such as housing, automotive and durable goods will be burdened with higher costs with these reciprocal tariffs. Demand in these sectors has already been struggling for more than two years. “The economic law of demand holds that as prices of a good rise, demand for the good will fall,” said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. US sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium, in effect since March, will add nearly $1,500 to the cost of a light vehicle and result in lower sales for the automotive industry, he estimated. This would push down sales by about 525,000 units if the cost is fully pushed through, said Swift. In addition, 25% sectoral tariffs on autos and auto parts will put further upward pressure on pricing, in turn lowering demand further. The ultimate price impact, and not just for automotive, will also depend on consumer demand. It is likely the higher costs from tariffs will be shared by producers, suppliers and consumers. Housing costs are also poised to rise, with sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum, and signaled tariffs on lumber and copper, along with reciprocal tariffs that will cover other imported goods such as vinyl floors, furniture, carpets and appliances. Consumer confidence is unlikely to improve anytime soon. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading in March for future expectations plunged 9.6 points, to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March as consumers were concerned about high prices and the impact of tariffs. One silver lining is that other countries may lower their tariffs and trade barriers in response to US reciprocal tariffs, opening markets for US exports and in turn leading to the US lowering its reciprocal tariff levels. WALL STREET CUTS EARNINGS ESTIMATESIn the meantime, Wall Street is making sizeable cuts to US chemical company profit forecasts, with tariffs expected to squeeze margins in the form of higher costs as well as lower demand. “Uncertainty over tariffs has weakened US PE/PP trading volumes and we expect shifts in trade flows to create near-term negative supply chain/production impacts, which could be negative for Q1,” said UBS analyst Joshua Spector in a 7 April research note. “We are lowering estimates and price targets to better reflect a global [slowdown] that spills into 2026 and 2027,” said Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander in a 7 April research note. “While we could easily be proven wrong by a couple of tweets (either escalating further or shifting from dramatic action to symbolism, bluff and rhetoric), we are adjusting our framework to reflect the current state of policy,” said Alexander. THE BIG PICTUREUltimately, US President Trump aims to engineer a “once in a hundred year pendulum shift” in the global economy and geopolitical order, said Rana Foroohar, global business columnist at the Financial Times, at the IPC hosted by the AFPM. “Tariffs are for real. Tariffs are here to stay…Trump sees the global economy as a giant gaming table, with the US consumer market as the biggest chip to put down. And he is going to use it in ways we haven’t seen in half a century, if not more,” said Foroohar. “This imbalance between Wall Street and Main Street – between the asset growth economy and the income-led economy – is really at the heart of what’s going on today…Cheaper is going away [and] place matters,” Foroohar added. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Infographics by Yashas Mudumbai Insight article by Joseph Chang and Yashas Mudumbai

08-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 21 March. Mexico's ethane terminal to raise raw materials availability, benefiting wider petrochemicals – CEO Mexico’s new ethane import terminal in the state of Veracruz is poised to transform the country's struggling petrochemical sector by alleviating critical raw material shortages, according to the chief at the facility. AFPM '25: US PVC to face headwinds from tariffs, economy The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is facing continued headwinds as tariff-related uncertainties persist heading into this year's International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). The domestic PVC market is expected to grow between 1-3% in 2025 but continues to face challenges in housing and construction. Meanwhile, export markets continue to wrestle with the threat of protectionist policies and tariffs at home and abroad. INSIGHT: Major macro reversal as Europe and China prepare to ramp up stimulus while US aims to cut spending In the global chemical and economic landscape, the US has for many years been the ‘cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry basket’ with slowing but steady GDP growth, abundant and cheap energy, big government stimulus for infrastructure projects and a tilt towards reshoring. INSIGHT: US sustainability companies hit by two bankruptcies US sustainability companies are starting to buckle, with a chemical recycling plant and a bioplastic producer both going bankrupt. US sanctions first China teapot refinery for alleged Iran oil purchases The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned a teapot refinery in Shandong, China for allegedly “purchasing and refining hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian crude oil”. AFPM '25: US polyurethane industry braces for cascade effect of tariffs US polyurethane prices for toluene diisocyanate (TDI), methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and a variety of polyether and polyester polyols continue to see increase pressure as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). AFPM ’25: Summary of Americas market stories Here is a summary of chemical market stories, heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas.

24-Mar-2025

SAN ANTONIO (ICIS)–Here is a summary of chemical market stories, heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. AFPM ‘25: US tariffs, retaliation risk heightens uncertainty for chemicals, economies The threat of additional US tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, and their potential impact is fostering a heightened level of uncertainty, dampening consumer, business and investor sentiment, along with clouding the 2025 outlook for chemicals and economies. AFPM '25: New US president brings chems regulatory relief, tariffs The new administration of US President Donald Trump is giving chemical companies a break on regulations and proposing tariffs on the nation's biggest trade partners and on the world. AFPM ’25: Shippers weigh tariffs, port charges on global supply chains Whether it is dealing with on-again, off-again tariffs, new charges at US ports for carriers with China-flagged vessels in their fleets, or booking passage through the Panama Canal, participants at this year's IPC have plenty to talk about. AFPM ’25: LatAm chemicals face uncertain outlook amid oversupply, trade policy woes Latin American petrochemicals face ongoing challenges from oversupplied markets and poor demand, with survival increasingly dependent on government protectionist measures. AFPM ’25: US propane supply long; ethane prices rising The US petrochemical industry is seeing a glut of upstream propane supply and rising prices for key feedstock ethane. AFPM ’25: Weak demand takes toll on US ethylene as supply concerns ease Persistently poor demand, underpinned by worries over global tariff policies and a sluggish US economy are putting downward pressure on US ethylene prices. AFPM ’25: US propylene demand weak despite recent supply disruptions Weak demand in the US propylene market has counterbalanced recent supply disruptions, pushing spot prices and sentiment lower. AFPM ’25: US BD supply lengthening; rubber demand optimistic US butadiene (BD) has been rather balanced in Q1 despite a couple of planned turnarounds and cracker outages limiting crude C4 deliveries, but supply is expected to lengthen, and demand is cautiously optimistic. AFPM ’25: US aromatics supply ample amid low demand Domestic supply of aromatics is ample and demand is relatively poor. AFPM ’25: US methanol exports, bunker fuel demand to grow, but domestic demand sentiment low US methanol participants’ outlook on the key downstream construction and automotive sectors has dimmed, but optimism continues for export growth and bunker fuel demand. AFPM ’25: Tariffs, weak demand weigh on US base oils Uncertain US trade policy paired with already weak finished lubricant demand weighs on base oil market sentiment. AFPM ’25: Trade policies dampening outlook for Americas PE The US polyethylene (PE) industry started 2025 with some early successes amid the backdrop of lower year-on-year GDP growth. Now, with the impact of volatile tariff policy on top of the aforementioned lower GDP forecast, the outlook for PE has fallen. AFPM '25: Tariffs to shape the trajectory of caustic soda in US and beyond The North American caustic soda market is facing continued headwinds coming via potential tariffs, a challenged PVC market and planned and unplanned outages. US President Donald Trump has threatened to implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada and the EU as well as on products that are directly tied to caustic soda but has delayed enactment on multiple occasions. These delays have bred uncertainty in the near-term outlook, impacting markets in the US and beyond. AFPM '25: US PVC to face headwinds from tariffs, economy The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is facing continued headwinds as tariff-related uncertainties persist. The domestic PVC market is expected to grow between 1-3% in 2025 but continues to face challenges in housing and construction. Meanwhile, export markets continue to wrestle with the threat of protectionist policies and tariffs at home and abroad. AFPM ’25: US spot EG supply balanced-to-tight on heavy turnaround season; EO balanced Supply in the US ethylene glycols (EG) market is balanced-to-tight as the market is undergoing a heavy turnaround season. The US ethylene oxide (EO) market is balanced as demand from derivatives including surfactants is flat. AFPM ’25: US PET prices facing upward price pressure on tariffs, China’s antimony exports ban, peak seasonUS polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices continue to face volatility as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. AFPM ’25: US PP volatility persists amid weak demand The US polypropylene (PP) market is facing weak demand, raw material volatility and tariff uncertainty. AFPM ’25: US ACN rationalization inevitable amid declining demand Production of acrylonitrile (ACN) in the US is being reduced or shuttered as already weak demand continues to fall and as downstream plants are shutting down. Changes to the supply/demand balance, trade flows and tariff uncertainties are weighing on market participants. AFPM ’25: US nylon trade flows shifting amid global capacity changes, tariff uncertainties US nylon imports and exports are changing as capacity becomes regionalized and geographically realigned. The subsequent changes to trade flows, price increase initiatives and tariff uncertainties are weighing on market participants. AFPM ’25: US ABS, PC face headwinds from closure and oversupply The US acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) markets are lackluster and oversupplied. Demand remains soft kicking off the year, and the closure of INEOS’s Addyston, Ohio, ABS facility and tariff uncertainties continue to pressure ABS and PC markets. AFPM ’25: US styrene market facing oversupply amid weak demand, trade uncertainty The US styrene market is transitioning from a period of supply tightness to one of potential oversupply, driven by weak derivative demand and the recent restart of Styrolution’s Bayport, Texas, unit. This return to full operation, coupled with subdued demand, suggests ample supply in the short term. AFPM ’25: US PS faces slow start to 2025 amid weak demand Domestic polystyrene (PS) demand started the year off weaker than expected, with limited restocking and slower markets. AFPM ’25: US phenol/acetone face challenging outlook heading into Q2 US phenol and acetone are grappling with a lot of moving pieces. AFPM ’25: US MMA facing new supply amid volatile demand heading into Q2 US methyl methacrylate (MMA) is facing evolving supply-and-demand dynamics. Roehm's new plant in Bay City, Texas, is in the final stage of start-up, but is not in operation yet. There is anticipation of sample product being available in Q2 for qualification purposes. AFPM ’25: US epoxy resins in flux amid duties, tariffs heading into Q2 US epoxy resins is grappling with changes in duties and trade policies. AFPM ’25: Acetic acid, VAM eyes impact of tariffs on demand, outages on supply The US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) markets are waiting to see what impact shifting trade and tariff policy will have on domestic and export demand, while disruptions are beginning to tighten VAM supply. AFPM '25: US etac, butac, glycol ethers markets focus on upcoming paints, coatings demand US ethyl acetate (etac), butyl acetate (butac) and glycol ethers market participants are waiting to see if the upcoming paints and coatings season will reinvigorate demand that has been in a long-term slump. AFPM ’25: Low demand for US oxos, acrylates, plasticizers countering feedstock cost spikes US propylene derivatives oxo alcohols, acrylic acid, acrylate esters and plasticizers have been partly insulated from upstream costs spikes by low demand, focusing outlooks on volatile supply and uncertain demand. AFPM ’25: N Am expectations for H2 TiO2 demand rebound paused amid tariff implementations After initial expectations of stronger demand for titanium dioxide (TiO2) in the latter half of 2025, the North American market is now in flux following escalating tariff talks. AFPM ’25: US IPA, MEK markets look to supplies, upstream costs US isopropanol (IPA) market has an eye on costs as upstream propylene supplies are volatile, while the US methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is evaluating the impact of global capacity reductions. AFPM ’25: US melamine prices continue to face upward pressure on duties, tight supply US melamine is experiencing upward pricing pressure, thanks in large part to antidumping and countervailing duty sanctions and tight domestic supply. AFPM '25: US polyurethane industry braces for cascade effect of tariffs US polyurethane prices for toluene diisocyanate (TDI), methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and a variety of polyether and polyester polyols continue to see increase pressure as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. AFPM ’25: US BDO market eyes costs, demand outlook uncertain US 1,4 butanediol (BDO) production costs have been mounting, and margins have been crunched. Supply is ample and demand has been lackluster. AFPM ’25: US propylene glycol demand begins softening after prior feedstock-driven uptick After a cold winter with strong demand for seasonal propylene glycol (PG) end-uses in antifreeze and de-icers in many parts of the US, demand is starting to cool. AFPM ’25: US MA sentiment cautious ahead of potentially volatile Q2 US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing a volatile economic backdrop. Spot feedstock normal butane has fallen below $1/gal in March due to the end of peak blending season and strong production. AFPM ’25: US PA, OX face trade uncertainty, production constraints US phthalic anhydride (PA) and orthoxylene (OX) demand remains relatively weak. Prices have been remaining flat and are expected to settle lower this month after losing mixed xylene (MX) price support and underlying crude oil price declines. AFPM '25: Tight feedstock availability to keep US fatty acids, alcohols firm despite demand woes Tight supplies and high prices for oleochemical feedstocks are expected to keep US oleochemicals prices relatively firm, as continued macroeconomic headwinds, including escalating trade tensions between the US and other countries, only further weigh on consumer sentiment and discourage players from taking long-term positions. AFPM '25: Historic drop in biodiesel production to keep US glycerine relatively firm A drop in US biodiesel production to levels not seen since Q1 2017 is likely to keep the floor on US glycerine prices relatively firm through at least H1 as imports of both crude and refined material fail to fully offset the short-term shortfalls in domestic supply. PRC ’25: US R-PET demand to fall short of 2025 expectations, but still see slow growth As the landmark year, 2025, swiftly passes, many within the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) industry doubt the demand and market growth promised by voluntary brand goals and regulatory post-consumer recycled (PCR) content minimums will come to fruition. PRC ’25: US pyrolysis recycling players churning through regulatory, economic uncertainty As both regulatory and economic landscapes continue to change, production and commercialization progress among pyrolysis based plastic recyclers continues to be mixed. Pyrolysis, a thermal depolymerization/conversion technology which targets polyolefin-heavy mixed plastic waste, or tires, is expected to become the dominant form of chemical recycling over the next decade. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Recycled Plastics topic page

22-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US polyurethane prices for toluene diisocyanate (TDI), methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and a variety of polyether and polyester polyols continue to see increase pressure as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). Because US domestic suppliers of polyurethane products expect a cascading inflationary effect of these tariffs, they are trying to price the cost of this inflation in new pricing offers for Q2. At the same time, these tariffs could hinder demand for polyurethane products in downstream industries such as automotive, construction, the comfort sector (furniture and bedding) and appliances. 25% TARIFFS RISK CAUSING DISRUPTION IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTORThe ongoing worldwide tariff conflict heightens the chances of the automobile sector experiencing a prolonged disruption phase. This could imply a halt in the production of several car models, increased prices for new vehicles, and production delays due to hurdles in product development for the subsequent years, experts say. Automotive seating consumes large volumes of TDI and flexible polyether polyols. Some analysts approximate that nearly one-third of North America's vehicle production could face reductions as a response to the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada imposed by US President Donald Trump. These cuts would be part of the automakers attempts to balance the escalated costs, and simultaneously, consumers might procrastinate their new car and truck purchases. Flavio Volpe, the President of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association (APMA), representing Canada's OEM suppliers within the global auto industry, has shared that Canadian car parts suppliers have funneled more than $10 billion into parts facilities situated across 26 US states. These plants employ up to 48,000 US workers, equating to the workforce of roughly 5-10 large car and truck factories. Focusing on Michigan, it alone houses 55 Canadian parts factories employing 17,000 US workers. TARIFFS MIGHT HINDER CONSTRUCTION SECTOR RECOVERYThe latest US housing starts numbers brought some hope for a recovery of the construction sector, which consumes a large amount of MDI and rigid polyols. Housing is a key end-use market for chemistry in the form of paints, wire insulation, house-wrap, sealants, roofing materials, resilient flooring, vinyl siding and related products. New housing also generates sales of appliances, furniture, carpet, fixtures and window treatments. In total, each start engenders on average over $13,000 worth of chemistry. After plunging 9.8% month on month in January amid harsh winter weather, US housing starts rebounded 11.2% in February to an adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million, according to US Census Bureau data. February’s increase was led by an 11.4% gain in the single-family segment, noted Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for Global Chemicals. This segment is more sensitive to interest rates and housing costs that affect affordability. It is also more plastics intensive than the multifamily segment. DEMAND FROM THE COMFORT SECTOR REMAINS WEAKPoor demand continues to plague the comfort sector (furniture and bedding), with the latest sales on President's Day not showing the traditional consumer interest the industry expected. The comfort sector consumes the largest volumes of TDI and flexible polyether polyols. There is hope that demand might recover in the second half of the year. Labor Day is traditionally the strongest sales day of the year for furniture and bedding items. However, the latest consumer sentiment data does not bode well for expectations on consumer expenditures, which make up 70% of the US GDP. US consumer sentiment fell nearly 11% month on month in March amid ongoing economic policy and tariff uncertainties and inflation fears. The Michigan “Index of Consumer Sentiment” fell to 57.9 points in March, from 64.7 in February, according to preliminary results of the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer survey. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is down 22% from December 2024. FLAME RETARDANTS FACE RISK OF SUBSTANTIAL INCREASESExpectations of further tariff increases are also feeding concerns about the rise of cost of flame retardants used in various polyurethane foams in the US. Case in point is Tris (chloropropyl) phosphate (commonly abbreviated TCPP), a chlorinated organophosphate flame retardant commonly added to polyurethane foams. TCPP is currently imported from China, often in blended form, but it can also be purchased as a sole product. Its cost in the US is currently above $2/lb and rising, although it's still available in Canada for 58 cents/lb. The prospect for further increases on imported products is having market participants scrambling to find TCPP alternatives that are economically viable. According to sources, some alternatives currently under consideration are Triethyl Phosphate (TEP), a halogen free flame retardant, and Tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (also known as chlorinated Tris, TDCP, TDCPP or Fyrol FR-2). There are other flame retardants available as well, but the key is to be able to find a solution that is economically viable compared to the cost of TCPP. Compounding the problem, last December China limited the sales of flame-retardant precursor antimony for exports, since antimony is also a dual-use product that can end up in military applications. Since 2020, antimony prices have increased over 234%, according to data from the Institute for Rare Earths and Metals. ANTICIPATION OF TARIFFS INFLATIONARY EFFECT DRIVES SUPPLIERS TO OFFER HIGHER PRICESCurrent negotiations for April and Q2 polyurethane pricing are wrapping up amid continued efforts by suppliers to increase prices. Especially in the flexible polyol segment, domestic suppliers are mentioning "margin improvement" and "inflation adjustment" needs as the main rationale for these price increases, which in some cases have come on top of prior increases announced in February for March. Foamers are fighting these increases, which have been offered for MDI and TDI as well. Fundamentals do not seem to support these Q2 increase efforts. To begin with, downstream demand is not recovering any time soon. Second, there is plenty of product in the market despite some minor turnarounds in effect for MDI and TDI between mid-March and mid-Aril. Third, feedstock costs are not justifying price increases, either. All main polyurethane feedstocks such as propylene, benzene, toluene, ethylene glycol and 1,4 butanediol (BDO) are moving on downtrend trajectories. Rather than being an adjustment to market dynamics, these increase pressures find their rationale in inflationary expectations of these tariffs, which polyurethane suppliers seem to be taking for granted. Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Focus article by Umberto Torresan (Thumbnail shows polyurethane foam. Image by Shutterstock.)

21-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Weak downstream demand, exacerbated by economic and geopolitical uncertainties, keeps sentiment bearish and buyers cautious across petrochemical markets in Asia. Sluggish demand to continue into Q2 amid oversupply China’s surging exports a concern among Asia producers China, South Korea prepare stimulus measures amid US tariffs REGIONAL PRODUCERS FEEL STRAIN China’s aggressive capacity expansion which led to increased exports has been exerting pressure on other Asian producers. For caprolactam (capro), the country turned into a net exporter in 2024, with shipments doubling from two years ago. This flood of Chinese exports has intensified regional competition, forcing capro plant closures in Japan and Thailand due to unsustainable margins. In the ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) market, massive capacity expansions in the next three years are projected to push China’s production capacity to 63% of the global total by 2027. As a result, the country’s EVA imports are likely to decline further, while exports are projected to continue increasing. In the naphtha market, supply constraints due to limited arbitrage cargoes and higher demand from new cracker start-ups in China and Indonesia have driven intermonth spreads to the highest levels seen in a year on 11 March. Refinery maintenance in China has also further restricted domestic naphtha supply, tightening overall availability in Asia. For aromatics such as benzene, toluene, xylene, paraxylene (PX), and mixed xylene (MX), prices fell in the week ended 14 March, weighed down by ample inventories and subdued demand. For acetone, prices have risen on tight supply because of plant maintenance, squeezing the margins of downstream isopropanol (IPA) producers, with LG Chem planning to shut its plant for a month from end-March. Meanwhile, palm oil prices in southeast Asia remain elevated due to lower production and stock levels, prompting a shift to cheaper alternatives like soybean oil in key markets such as India. Meanwhile, palm oil prices in southeast Asia remain elevated due to lower production and stock levels, prompting a shift to cheaper alternatives like soybean oil in key markets such as India. Consequently, downstream fatty alcohols prices increased. Although plants in Malaysia and Indonesia have expanded capacities, these will be offset by expected turnarounds during March to May. BEARISH SENTIMENT AMID TRADE WARS Industry players are navigating highly volatile markets amid the revival of the US-China trade war, with fears of a more widespread trade disruption amid the US’ protectionist measures under President Donald Trump. Buyers are generally cautious about building too much inventory amid continued weakness in demand. In the MX market, buyers in southeast Asia are maintaining sufficient inventories and avoiding additional spot purchases. For methyl methacrylate (MMA), domestic market in China remains sluggish due to high stocks and lackluster demand, while a strong US dollar was further dampening export demand. Similarly, the vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market is also facing weak demand in China, with traders struggling to offload high inventories due to slow spot trade activity. US’ tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports which took effect on 12 March are adding to regional economic concern, particularly for South Korea, which is as major steel exporter to the world’s biggest economy. China, whose economy has been slowing down, plans “promote reasonable wage growth by strengthening employment support in response to economic conditions”, to boost domestic consumption, its State Council said on 16 March. Among the new economic stimulus measures are implementing paid annual leaves for workers, expanding property income channels and accelerating development in new technologies. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Jasmine Khoo, Angeline Soh, Samuel Wong, Isaac Tan, Chris Qi, Helen Yan, Rita Wang, Elaine Zhang, Yvonne Shi, Li Peng Seng and Joanne Wang Thumbnail image: Qingdao Port Trade, China – 13 March 2025 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

17-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 14 March. Asia petrochemicals under pressure from China oversupply, US trade risks By Jonathan Yee 10-Mar-25 12:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment in Asia’s petrochemical markets remains cautious with prices of some products – particularly in the southeastern region – were rising on tight supply, amid escalating trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners, including China. Asia petrochemical shares track Wall Street rout on US tariff, recession worries By Jonathan Yee 11-Mar-25 11:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia tumbled on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s rout overnight on fears of a US recession caused by tariffs. Asia naphtha bull-run intensifies; potential risks ahead By Li Peng Seng 12-Mar-25 13:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Tight supplies and stronger-than-usual demand have driven Asia’s naphtha intermonth spread to nearly a year's high on 11 March, but upcoming cracker maintenance and rebounding arbitrage volumes could derail the current bull-run. Asia caprolactam spot prices decline, China plant operating rates reduce By Isaac Tan 12-Mar-25 20:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Caprolactam (capro) spot prices in Asia-Pacific declined in the week ended 12 March 2025, driven by weak benzene costs and sluggish downstream demand. China EVA industry: navigating capacity expansion amid demand uncertainty By Chris Qi 13-Mar-25 11:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) industry is expected to brace for a second wave of capacity expansion during 2025-2027. The country is now the world's largest EVA producer following intensive plant start-ups during 2021-2023. BLOG: A Different Kind of Downturn: Why This Cycle Won’t Simply “Right Itself” By John Richardson 13-Mar-25 11:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. INSIGHT: Poor demand dominates Asian isocyanates markets, oversupply caps Mideast gains By Shannen Ng 13-Mar-25 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Soft demand for key isocyanates polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) and toluene diisocyanate (TDI) in Asia and the Middle East is expected to persist throughout March, with lengthy supply also likely to weigh on sentiment. South Korea prepares full emergency response as US tariffs take effect By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Mar-25 12:51 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea is initiating full emergency response measures as US steel and aluminum tariffs take effect, aiming to mitigate the impact on its economy, which is already grappling with weak exports and domestic consumption.

17-Mar-2025