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Updated to Q3 2019
Most capacity is integrated into downstream PVC production, but overall spot supply in the region may drop slightly amid downstream PVC start-ups in China and the Philippines by July.
Demand for VCM is largely expected to hinge on the market developments of key derivative PVC. Demand for PVC is expected to experience a lull in India amid the monsoon season. On the other hand, a recent truce in the trade dispute between the US and China could lift sentiment in other Asian countries.
European VCM supply is expected to rise early in the third quarter. Production issues in the market affected the INOVYN plant at Rafnes, Norway, in late Q2, which are likely to be resolved by the third quarter. A VCM expansion is scheduled for INOVYN in late 2019 or early 2020 which will slightly increase supply.
The European VCM demand outlook is mixed for the third quarter with lower consumption anticipated in downstream markets. Downstream PVC demand is typically reduced in July and August as a consequence of a summer lull in business activity. European’s economic outlook has also become cloudy because of increased trade tensions between the US and China, which is likely to reduce consumption in downstream products. This is not expected to reduce VCM spot demand, which is structurally quiet.
Supply of US VCM is expected to grow on the seasonal summer demand surge for derivative PVC. Almost all US VCM are for the manufacturing of the derivative plastic. Rising construction activity underpins expectations of greater production and supply.
Demand for VCM will rise in line with demand for derivative PVC as construction activity continues to gather pace through the summer and peak in August. Almost all VCM goes to PVC production and most US VCM is used internally by back-integrated producers of derivative PVC.
We offer the following regional Vinyl chloride monomer coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the “Asia, Europe & US” Vinyl chloride monomer marketplace.
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