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Updated to Q2 2019
Group I
Supply of lighter grade SN150 in Asia will likely remain tight as refiners are gradually shifting away from Group I to Group II or III production. Supply of SN500 and brightstock is expected to stay largely flat, with Southeast Asian refiners likely to continue to run their units at high rates. Supply from Japan will remain tight because of the turnaround at a major Japanese refiner’s unit.
Demand in northeast and southeast Asia is expected to pick up in the midst of the peak demand season in April every year. That said, overall demand this time round is relatively more subdued as compared to past years amid a gloomy global economic outlook. Demand in India will likely fare better from April onwards with the start of the new financial year.
Group II
Group II supply is expected to remain largely flat as northeast Asian refiners seem to be able to withstand higher crude values without succumbing to cutting their base oils production to produce more gas oil like what they did in October and November last year. There are also no known major Group II turnarounds in the second quarter.
Demand in northeast and southeast Asia will likely improve with the onset of the peak demand season in April every year. However, overall demand is unlikely to pick up significantly as compared to past years due to global economic concerns. Demand in India is also expected to strengthen from April onwards with the start of the new financial year.
Group III
Supply from northeast Asia will likely increase in the second quarter as a South Korean refiner is expected to resume production at its GIII unit in April. Meanwhile, the supply of Middle Eastern material will likely remain largely stable as there are no known major turnarounds in the Middle East in the second quarter.
Demand for South Korea-origin 4, 6 and 8cst cargoes may pick up slightly in the midst of the peak demand season in March and April every year. That said, overall demand this time round is relatively more subdued as compared to past years amid a gloomy global economic outlook.
We offer the following regional Base oils-Lubes analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Base oils-Lubes marketplace.
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The main use for base oils is in the manufacture of lubricants, of which there are many thousands of types.
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