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Updated to Q1 2020
Group I
Group I supply is expected to fall in Q1 as a couple of Thai refiners have cut production at their units to produce more low sulphur fuel oil. With the implementation of International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020, ships will not be allowed to use fuel oil with sulphur content above 0.5% from 1 January 2020 onwards.
Demand in both northeast and southeast Asia is expected to stay largely flat in January because of the Lunar New Year in late-January but buying interest will likely pick up after the holidays ahead of the traditional lull demand season. Indian demand is expected to taper in March due to the end of the financial year in the country.
Group II
Supply in Q1 will likely stay flat as regional refiners are expected to continue running their refineries at reduced rates because of squeezed margins. Group II refiners are likely to keep their production low amid the surge in crude and gasoil prices since late-December, albeit a pick-up in Indian demand may limit further output cuts.
Overall demand in northeast and southeast Asia will likely increase post-Lunar New Year holiday in H1 February. Buying interest in India is expected to improve in January and February following the doldrums at the end of the previous year but demand will likely taper in March due to the end of the financial year in the country.
Group III
Supply in Q1 is expected to stay largely flat as there is no known major Group III refinery turnarounds in the region. Overall supply from South Korea, southeast Asia and the Middle East will likely be sufficient, with demand for Group III not expected to increase substantially.
Demand for northeast and southeast Asian 4, 6 and 8cst cargoes is expected to remain relatively constant in Q1. Heightened geo-political tensions in the Middle East at the turn of the year will likely dampen sentiment, although recent positive developments in US-China trade talks could be a boost for the key end-user automotive sector.
We offer the following regional Base oils-Lubes analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Base oils-Lubes marketplace.
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The main use for base oils is in the manufacture of lubricants, of which there are many thousands of types.
The Base Oils/Lubes Pricing report delivers daily and weekly price assessments, market news and analyses for the Asian base oils/lubes market. Whether you are a buyer, trader or seller, our pricing information gives you access to time-sensitive deals, offers/bids and price movements. Historical pricing data is also available.
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The report also includes trade flows and demand from the finished lubricants sector. Shipping and feedstock information completes the market coverage.
ICIS collects pricing data on a wide range of chemical, energy and fertilizer products, including Base oils-Lubes. Our extensive experience in price reporting means we can offer you access to historical data dating back more than 20 years for certain commodities.
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